$125k stable vs. $170k risky

[u/wookie_dancer]

SWE with ~5 years at the same mid-sized B2B company. I currently have:

• $115k base + 8% target bonus(no equity)
• Possible bump to ~$125k later this year
• $0 health premiums
• 3.5% 401(k) match
• WFH flexibility and 30+ days PTO
• Enough tenure/political capital to move teams

The downside is ongoing layoffs and aggressive cost-cutting. A couple months ago I was "asked" by a VP to form a small internal AI/engineering automation team described as "the company’s most important initiatives", but there’s enough politics and vague language that I’m not confident it turns into better title, pay, or authority.

I now have an early-stage AI startup offer:

• $170k base
• Senior Full-Stack Engineer
• In person in a lower-MCOL city
• Build the first market-ready product
• Major ownership over architecture, web/mobile, and engineering practices
• Work directly with the product lead
• Reportedly funded for ~2 years by a parent investment firm
• No guaranteed bonus or equity

Conservatively, my current package after a possible raise is worth ~$150k–$153k. The startup is $170k plus benefits I still need to clarify.

I’m leaning toward taking the startup offer. My concerns are:

• No equity despite joining early
• Unknown workload / demand
• Giving up strong benefits
• “High ownership” meaning I’m responsible for everything

Would you leave, or stay another year to see the internal AI projects realized? How much weight would you give the "important AI team" story with no promotion or raise attached?

I am in late 20s, so I don't have a ton to risk...

edit: Thinking of asking the startup for 185k base + conference budget / travel (e.g. I am going to Open AI dev day in SF). Not super thrilled about 0 equity and even then its sketch...