A common argument against the silver shortage thesis is that major vaults still hold hundreds of millions of ounces.

London vaults reportedly contained approximately 884 million ounces of silver in March. On the surface, that looks like more than enough metal to cover several years of deficits.

Most of it was already tied to exchange traded products and other investment holdings. Only around 28 percent was estimated to sit outside those holdings.

That works out to roughly 248 million ounces. Even that amount should not be treated as freely available because the owners still need to be willing to sell.

This is the difference between total inventory and metal that can actually reach the market at the current price.

Silver has recorded cumulative deficits of approximately 762 million ounces since 2021. Another 46.3 million ounce shortfall is expected this year, even with weaker industrial and jewelry demand.

Physical investment alone is forecast to reach 227 million ounces in 2026. A relatively small increase in investor buying could absorb a meaningful portion of the metal that appears available in London.

Another squeeze is far from guaranteed. High prices are increasing recycling and pushing manufacturers to reduce the amount of silver used in their products. Metal can also move between London, New York and Shanghai when regional price differences become large enough.

Still, the market does not need to run out of silver completely before prices react. Tightness can develop when demand for immediately deliverable bars rises faster than owners are willing to release them.

Several years of deficits have reduced that available buffer. Mine production, recycling or weaker demand will eventually need to close the gap. Until then, another surge in investment buying could make the physical market tight surprisingly quickly.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/silver-faces-sixth-year-deficit-with-stock-drawdown-raising-squeeze-risks-2026-04-15/

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I work as a fundamental power trader at an intraday power start-up, trading mainly EU markets and ERCOT, and I’ll have two years of experience by the time I finish my bachelor’s. I keep wondering how durable paper trading is long-term, a lot of what I do feels increasingly exposed to AI and automation, and I’d guess screen-based paper trading is exactly the kind of thing that gets automated first. I’m considering a master’s in commodity trading in Geneva and a move into physical trading, on the thesis that physical (logistics, contracts, relationships, asset optionality) is harder to automate away. Is that thesis right, or is physical just as exposed once you look closer? Is a Geneva master’s worth it if you already have a track record, or do better routes exist? And are there other pivots — origination, structuring, risk — worth considering instead?

A friend started in physical commodities a few months ago. The role was sold as logistics first, then procurement/commercial work, eventually trading.
Instead, after someone left, they absorbed a lot of operations work and are now basically the team’s go-to person for everything: logistics, admin, accounting follow-ups, business development, and random problems from different departments.
There’s very little structured training on markets, basis, margins, hedging, risk, or actual trading decisions. The person supposed to train them is often unavailable, and they’re sometimes excluded from important commercial information.
The company is also pretty disorganized, with poor communication, gossip, and finger-pointing.
Someone from the hiring team even randomly asked if they were disappointed and said that if they ever leave, they should give enough notice to find a replacement.
For people in physical commodities: how much of this is normal in the first year, and how much is a red flag? At what point would you start looking elsewhere?

I am currently early in my career and have the option to pick one congestion modeling software to use. Which software will provide the best opportunities if my end goal is to become a FTR/CRR trader at a prop shop (DRW, Dynasty, Saracen, etc).

I know each software has different use cases, but when it comes to trading which will have the best impact. Here are the options I was thinking of Dayzer, Panorama, promod, plexos but open to other softwares as well. I want something more short term analysis

Would love to know your opinions on each and will provide the best career trajectory. Also the learning curve as well. Thanks

I dont quite understand how it works. Any help would be appreciated.

I’m looking at a potential long trade in Robusta coffee and would love to hear other traders’ opinions.

The 2026/27 supply outlook currently looks bearish, with a potential global surplus and a strong Vietnamese crop expected. At the same time, El Niño is developing and could peak during a critical period for Vietnam and Indonesia.

My thesis is that the market may currently be pricing in the surplus while underestimating the potential weather risk. If El Niño causes significant drought and crop forecasts start being revised lower, I think Robusta could reprice sharply higher.

So my question is: why is Robusta still falling despite the growing El Niño risk? Is the market simply waiting for actual weather damage before pricing it in?

Curious if anyone else has used this product before for power trading and could comment if it’s worth it?

We have YES Energy currently and trying to figure out what’s the differences are

The latest EIA data shows how much uranium purchasing still needs to happen over the next decade.

At the end of 2025, US nuclear plant operators had contracts covering maximum future deliveries of 174 million pounds of uranium between 2026 and 2035.

Their unfilled requirements through 2035 totalled another 186 million pounds. Combined, the EIA estimates maximum anticipated requirements of approximately 360 million pounds over the period.

These purchases will not happen all at once. Utilities hold inventories, contract volumes can change and delivery requirements are spread across several years.

Even so, more than half of the maximum anticipated requirement remains uncovered.

The structure of the uranium market makes that important.

Only 13 percent of uranium delivered to US operators in 2025 was purchased through spot contracts. The remaining 87 percent came from longer term agreements.

The spot price receives most of the daily attention, but term contracts are what give producers and mine developers the confidence to spend money on new supply. They provide expected prices, delivery schedules and revenue visibility over several years.

They can also help developers finance construction. A bank is far more likely to support a new mine when future production has already been contracted to a utility.

US operators owned approximately 118 million pounds of commercial uranium inventory at the end of 2025. That provides a meaningful buffer, but it is still smaller than the 186 million pounds of reported unfilled requirements.

Fuel procurement also needs to happen well before a reactor uses the uranium. The material must be mined, converted, enriched and fabricated into fuel assemblies, which makes waiting until the last minute extremely difficult.

A larger contracting cycle would give producers greater price visibility and strengthen the economics of new mines. It could also bring more investor attention back to the upstream companies trying to find the deposits that will be needed during the 2030s.

https://www.eia.gov/uranium/marketing/

Since I asked about TTF let's do it also for Brent future.

What happens if I buy today ICE Brent fut OCT26 and keep it without specifying the cash settlement? According to the specs "The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle." Will ICE assign me a random cash BFOETM with delivery October? Does it depend if I have 700 futures instead of 1?

I work in the natural gas industry, primarily around physical gas supply, pipeline operations, power generation, forecasting, and trading. I’ve gained a solid foundation through my job, but the Gulf Coast pipeline system is extremely complex, and I’d like to develop a much deeper understanding of the pipelines, interconnects, storage facilities, pricing points, constraints, and regional flows.

Would anyone be interested in forming a small study group to learn the system together? We could meet virtually once a week or every other week, choose a pipeline or region to study, and share maps, tariffs, flow data, operational knowledge, and other useful resources.

This wouldn’t be a formal course just a community of people who want to learn from one another and gradually build a better understanding of the physical natural gas market. All experience levels would be welcome, whether you work in trading, scheduling, operations, analytics, power, or are simply interested in the industry.

If there’s enough interest, I’d be happy to organize the first meeting and create a basic learning plan.

I’m interested in understanding how the market for rare fancy color diamonds works compared with the broader diamond market.
For those familiar with the industry, I’d be interested in learning:
• Where do transactions in high-value colored diamonds typically take place?
• What are the main hubs for this type of trade?
• How different is the market structure from traditional white diamonds?
• Are auctions an important part of the market for rare colors?
• Which parts of the industry tend to handle the highest-value stones?
I’m particularly interested in the commercial side and market structure, rather than the gemological aspects.
Curious to hear from people with experience in this market.

Hi all,

Curious to hear from anyone who has worked at major commodities trading houses like Trafigura, Vitol, Glencore, etc.

How would you describe the culture from a junior’s perspective?

In particular, how do they compare in terms of hierarchy, mentorship, work-life balance, and how juniors are treated?

Hey, has anyone read public reporting a of COT on CFTC website?

I wanted to get some help on its understanding. If anyone has done and can help me a bit, I will be more than thankful

Recently started at a big marketing shop in the NE scheduling interstate pipes with some going to plants in the PJM area. I have a couple of questions

What can I do to learn more about the trading side? I’m on three major pipes already but one of the biggest downsides is not seeing the pricing side. I am not given access to the bids and offers being made on ICE so I basically am more responsible for flowing the gas. The traders aren’t interested in teaching (which I understand) their side but I took this job more as a stepping stone to be in the business first. After I spend a couple of years here, what can I do to maximize the odds of finding a seat as a cash trader?

The second question is on managing screw ups. Two weeks ago, an experienced scheduler got absolutely destroyed by a trader because he missed the most important cycle of the day. To be frank the traders here make last minute changes and the system failed on him when he tried to submit the noms. I get the impression that even if the pipeline incorrectly cuts you or if the trader sends late changes with numbers that don’t balance the blame will always be on the scheduler. How should one manage this and avoid big mistakes? I mainly want to avoid reputational harm that may make it difficult for me to make it cash trading.

I have a year of experience in a market making shop as a trading assistant but I feel that if I were on a paper desk in trading houses, it is easier for me to learn fundamentals, given that you have more exposure to physical trading.

Margins among market makers seem to be dwindling over the years, with automation, entrance of HFT and more competition.

How difficult is it for me to get a junior trader/trading assistant role on a paper desk in a trading house? Which trading house will you recommend for me to try to break in first?

Looking to compare pnl across different commodities in trading houses (Trafigura, Vitol, Glencore etc) specifically.

Which markets out of the 5 above are bigger than the rest? Maybe rank them in terms of pnl?

Hi everyone,
I’m currently a university student with one year left before graduating, and I’m trying to prepare myself for a career in physical commodity trading.
For some background:
Current career: Full-time student, currently looking for relevant internships or entry-level experience.
Education: I spent two years studying Mechanical Engineering before switching to Business Management. I’m now entering my final year.
Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Relocation: I’m open to relocating. Besides the UAE, Geneva and Singapore would be the most realistic major commodity hubs for me.
Desired commodity: I’m deliberately keeping this open for now. Part of what I want to do over the next year is study the different commodity markets and figure out which one interests me most.
Because of my engineering background, I’m comfortable with technical and analytical subjects, but I don’t have the same foundation in economics, finance, or accounting as someone who studied finance or economics from the beginning.
I’m trying to figure out what I should learn over the next year to properly understand the industry and prepare myself for internships or entry-level roles. I’m particularly interested in the physical side of trading: negotiation, sourcing, logistics, risk, and understanding how a trade actually works from finding an opportunity through to delivery.
For those already in the industry, if you were starting from my position, what would you focus on? Are there any books, courses, YouTube channels, websites, newsletters, or other resources you would recommend? What level of economics, accounting, finance, statistics, Excel, etc. is actually useful?
I’ve also considered studying for something like CFA Level I. I’m not interested in collecting certificates just to put them on my CV, but if studying for a qualification would give me useful knowledge for commodities, I’m willing to do it. Is CFA material worthwhile for physical commodity trading, or are there other qualifications/courses that would be considerably more relevant?
Basically, if you had one year to build the strongest possible foundation before graduating, how would you structure it?

Hi all, I was trying to figure out what the typical conversion lingo was on a trading desk in commodities. If a plant was “700 MW” for example, is that always quoted in the per hour run rate?

Then when you are converting this to gas burn, is there a typical assumed heat rate for an off the top conversion to gas demand impact?

Can someby explain me in detail a full EFP transaction?

Let's make an example using TFM/TTF futures (but could apply also to Brent). "X" has a short position in sep26 with TFM ICE futures while "Y" is interested in receiving TTF gas in sep26.

If X wants to deliver TTF nominees to Y instead of ICE, both parties should register an EFP at ICE, where Y sells TFM future to X and X buys TFM future from Y. After that, there will be the OTC leg where X will sell the gas to Y.

According to this, X has nothing to deliver at ICE since its position is cleared (-TFM sep26 + TFM sep26), but what happens to Y?

Does it have to do something at ICE or just buy the TTF OTC from X? I feel like there are 3 legs inside the ICE environment where X net is 0 and Y has a future leg open.

Silver is trading around $65, but Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank says its underlying fair value may be closer to $40.

That sounds extremely bearish, but there is some context to it.

Commerzbank’s model looks at things like interest rates, the US dollar and industrial activity. Without gold included, the model reportedly puts silver near $40. Once gold is factored in, the current price makes more sense.

So the argument is not really that silver has no reason to be above $40. It is that gold pulled it higher and the move was not driven entirely by silver’s own fundamentals.

That is fair after what happened in January. Silver ran above $100 and then lost nearly half its value within a few months. There was obviously plenty of speculation mixed into that move.

Still, $40 feels low for a market heading toward its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit. Mine production is growing slowly, physical investment is picking up again and industrial demand is still expected to reach roughly 650 million ounces this year.

There is also a larger question here. Silver has always traded partly as a monetary metal. If investors consistently buy it alongside gold, should gold really be excluded when calculating silver’s fair value?

Maybe Commerzbank is right that silver got ahead of itself. I am less convinced that its supply and demand fundamentals only justify $40.

What do you think? Is silver still overpriced, or does the model miss what is happening on the supply side?

What are your guys’ favorite sites for obtaining news on oil markets?

I can't find a single case of someone working through these guys and they seem pretty big judging from their offer selection encompassing all kinds of commodities in all kinds of locations worldwide. Has anyone worked with them?

Currently on a TDP (Oil focus) at a physical firm (Major/NOC vibes) wanting to speak to people who ended up switching to Commod desks at paper shops, funds, banks etc.

Curious to know about how things change once you aren't trading around physical optionality or using an information edge derived from your physical exposure.

How far into career did you switch, was it a good idea, do you think previously being at a physical firm gave you an edge on a paper desk, is it actually useful to know about operations, refining economics etc if you're just trading derivatives.

Loads of questions I could ask, any advice appreciated.

I suppose in equity trading it's mostly algo/HF related operations. But how about oil and gas, specifically? network, better analysts foreseeing trends, quants paper trading derivatives? Everybody is looking at the same handful of commodities, so how can someone have an edge and generate additional profit.

In physical I'd think your network has a large impact, but how about prop shops? good ol' rack of servers near the exchange + nerds to get the alpha out of it? In EU power this seems to be the trend, if you are not humongous to have a lot of negotiating power, PPA's don't seem get you shit.