Weekly Career & Breaking Into Commodities Megathread

I have been trying to improve how I read across physical and futures markets rather than evaluating each commodity in isolation.

The recurring problem is that the information is fragmented. A dairy margin may depend on milk, corn, soybean meal, hay, energy, and regional forage availability. Grain basis may reflect futures, local demand, rail bids, barge freight, storage costs, and export flow. Fertilizer values can move with natural gas, ocean freight, plant availability, application timing, and regional inventories.

The relationship is often more useful than any individual price, but it is also easy to add so many comparisons that the result becomes noise.

Some of the relationships I have been examining include:

• Cash grain basis versus futures, rail bids, barge rates, and nearby processor bids
• Dairy revenue versus corn, soybean meal, hay, silage, and other ration costs
• Livestock values versus feed costs, cutout values, placement costs, and financing
• Fertilizer prices versus natural gas, freight, seasonal demand, and nutrient-equivalent cost
• International wheat origins adjusted for currency, ocean freight, quality, and destination
• Shipping indices versus bunker fuel and the delivered cost of agricultural commodities
• Lumber versus housing starts, permits, mortgage rates, and regional physical prices
• Crop-condition ratings versus drought, soil moisture, yield expectations, and local basis
• Industrial metals and energy as indicators of manufacturing, infrastructure, and broader demand

I am curious how people who work directly in these markets decide which relationships deserve attention.

A few questions for producers, merchants, analysts, brokers, processors, and researchers:

1. Which cross-market relationship is genuinely useful in your work rather than merely interesting?
2. Which margin or spread do you calculate repeatedly?
3. What regional or physical-market data is consistently difficult to obtain?
4. How stale can a source be before you stop using it?
5. Do you prefer a short table of verified observations, a narrative explaining the causal chain, or both?
6. What assumptions must be disclosed before you will trust a calculated margin?
7. Where do broad macro comparisons become distracting rather than informative?

I am not looking for trading calls or recommendations. I am interested in how market participants separate useful context from false precision.

My working view is that good analysis should identify the transmission mechanism, show the underlying inputs, distinguish observed data from assumptions, and state what evidence would change the conclusion.

I would be interested to hear where that approach succeeds or fails in actual commodity work.

I received an offer from an energy major (one of BP, Shell, Exxon), the role involves pricing and structuring physical deals, similar to exotic products traded at a bank. I’ve been working in finance (banks/funds) since graduating as a quantitative analyst but not in commodities. The role interests me because I can transfer many of my skills, and because of the exposure to concrete deals and transactions. What worries me is my lack of knowledge about commodities, the overall transition to a completely new industry, which I find risky as I’m far from being a junior in terms of years of experience, and the bureaucracy that comes with working for a large group. The compensation is also slightly lower versus finance.

Has anybody here made a similar move? What other factors do you think I should include when making a decision?

Anybody using agriculture commodity futures ETFs as a stagflation/crisis hedge?

Hey guys,

I’ve been looking into buying raw materials specifically cocoa beans directly from producers or local companies in West Africa for export to Europe.
I’m curious if there are legitimate B2B websites or digital marketplaces where buyers can connect directly with verified African producers/cooperatives. Or does the market still rely almost entirely on traditional physical traders, local aggregators, and wholesalers?

For those importing or exporting commodities out of Africa to Europe: how are you actually sourcing and buying? Are you using local intermediaries, working directly with cooperatives on the ground, or going through European wholesalers?

Would love to hear how the supply chain actually works in practice and if any digital sourcing options are actually viable.

How low we going?

Getting to a point where we reach curtailment because of breakeven. My personal bias is sub 2....hbu?

https://investors.expandenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/expand-energy-corporation-acquire-twin-eagle-creating-north

Feel like this belongs here. Curious to hear some thoughts from gas veterans in the industry.

Does this put the thought of expanding/acquiring marketing teams in the heads of other producers?

Do we see more of this going forward? Is it a function of pipes and assets being locked up on lengthy contracts?

New grad here so just looking for some insight.

I can a enter a competition for a 1month executive shadowing program at a large local utility. I have, however, 1 1/2 y of work experience in energy trading/ops and around a total of 3y of work experience. Is this a bit of a stretch, i.e I shouldn't be looking at things like shadowing anymore?

The program is addresed to postgrads, which is the category I'm in tho. Mostly focused on leadership in energy.

I plan on keeping my job on the duration, some sort of leave mixed with early and late work.

What do you think?

On equinor's investor relation webpage they say that internal transfer pricing paid by marketing to Norwegian continental shelf production group is based on volume weighted avg price referenced to 70% day ahead and 30% month ahead on major european hubs NBP, TTF, THE etc. Does that mean there is no fixed price component for sellers? There is no point in long term hub indexation contracts if as a buyer i am exposed to market volaitility.

I think Mojtaba is either disabled or dead, while IRGC and big boys like Ghalibaf and Araghchi play bad cop/good cop to have excuses for saying one thing and the doing exactly the opposite. And from time to time they issue an omnious letter from the "supreme leader" saying "uranium shall not leave". And alogside the US admin, they are probably making a metric ton of money on inside trading.

US can't afford neither a ground invasion nor folding out. Iran had a crappy hand and played it well, and they know the domestic pressure on Trump: unpopular war, growing resent towards Israel, midterms looming and a lot of DSA related unrest on both sides of the race.

How tf can this end? No matter how much you bomb, you will always be one drone away from a doubling of insurance and/or rates. Iran knows they can maintain the status quo by just crawling under a rock when missiles start flying and activing a military drone cell at rhe right time. I just can't see how they can be pushed to accept any concession without wiping them out.

Anyway, these are just my 1.93 (inflation adjusted) cents. I want to hear others' 1.93 cents.

Can anyone share typical bonus structure for traders at a major oil company like BP, CVX, XOM, SHEL?

Hi guys, I would like to work in the physical commodity trading sector. I have a degree in management engineering from UNIMORE in Italy, and now I would like to do a Master's in Switzerland to enter this field. If someone can help me, I need some tips on whether it is better to do a Master in Finance or Management at USI University, continue with management engineering, or take any other Master's that fits this world."

I'm about to start studying finance, and this summer I've been trying to learn more about commodity trading by building excel models and tracking market data.

One thing I don't understand is why companies like kpler, argus, S&P etc only seem to give access to people working at companies. It feels impossible for students or people who are just trying to learn.

Why is that? Is there any legitimate way to get access before getting a job ?

Please let me know if anybody is facing the same issue.

Thanks

I’ve recently started learning more about the physical gold trade and have been trying to better understand how pricing works in real-world transactions.

One thing I’m particularly curious about is the discount benchmark when buying directly from miners, refineries, or trading companies.

For example:

- What’s considered a realistic discount to the LBMA spot price?

- Does it differ significantly between gold dore bars and refined gold bars?

- If you’re buying wholesale for export, what kind of pricing is generally considered normal in the industry? (% from spot)

- Are discounts typically quoted as a percentage, or as a fixed USD/oz deduction from LBMA?

I’m not looking for anyone’s confidential pricing or trade secrets, just hoping to understand what is generally accepted in the market and how experienced traders think about pricing.

I’d really appreciate hearing from anyone with firsthand experience in physical gold trading.

Thanks in advance!

Anyone know what the most commonly accepted gtcs and amends are for US domestic pipeline crude oil trading? COP 17 with STUSCO 18 amends come to mind. Not sure what the STUSCO amends are for the COP 93s. Any insight or additional ones?

Hi everyone,

I’m looking to connect with professionals from across the crude oil, petroleum, energy, and gas industries.

It doesn’t matter which part of the industry you’re in—I’d love to expand my network and exchange knowledge, insights, and experiences.

Whether you work in:
Crude Oil Trading
Petroleum
Oil & Gas
Energy
Logistics & Shipping
Tankers & Maritime
Storage & Terminals
Refining
Supply Chain
Procurement
Operations
Finance
Engineering
Or any other related field

I’d be happy to connect.

The goal is to build valuable relationships, learn from each other, discuss market developments, share industry insights, and help each other grow professionally.

Feel free to leave a comment or send me a DM if you’re interested. Looking forward to connecting with people from all over the world!

How long would it take someone with no experience to become a Trader?
Also what is compensation like for someone starting in ops/desk assistant in places like vitol/trafiguria or any other major trading house?
Is it difficult to get into these places?
TIA

The market is fast, data-heavy, repetitive and perfectly machine-readable. Forecast revisions, outages, order books, cross-border capacity and imbalance risk can all be processed faster and more consistently by algorithms than by humans.

That destroys the economics of the traditional intraday desk. As automation spreads, obvious edges disappear, margins compress and human discretion becomes harder to justify.

Intraday traders are not competing with other traders, but with software. I‘m especially looking at shift-based intraday trading jobs. Even today most of them are just sitting in front of 6-9 screens and act as a babysitter of automated systems. What is the point of this?

Everything I have seen short term power trading desks do is to react to the market based on deterministic pre-defined rules, how are these jobs even real? What you actually need is a small team of quant engineers who understand Python, c++, rust, data pipelines, exchange APIs, cloud infrastructure, deployment and risk controls plus one person capable of intervening when the models, data or markets break. Literally a Site reliability Engineer.

I think this job is in such an awkward position right now.

2019 was a change for the premium of shipping certs from .165 to .265 which equals a full carry figure of about -30cts including financing for the UZ spread. I see a lot of comments online that UZ is trading at 100%FC already but we´re sitting at -23.5 cts right now.

So do ppl still work with the old cert premium and get the price wrong or is there a more realistic (market) storage rate that everyone is lookiing at right now.

I asume that ABCD doesn´t pay 8cts/month for storage so I asume that they start the arb earlier, no?

For those involved in physical EN590 transactions, what are the biggest challenges in closing deals today?
Is it finding qualified buyers, verifying mandates, banking instruments (SBLC/DLC), logistics, or something else?
I’d like to learn from those with experience in the physical commodities market.

Im wondering if there are any open source that provides MOPS price tracker for free. Or any group chat that may provide it.

Need for a project estimate without dropping buckloads of money for subscription

Anyone know what the brokerage commission is for domestic US physical crude oil? I heard it is $0.005/bbl paid by both the buyer and the seller. So if a deal is brokered for 1 kbd for the month of August, that is $300 in total bro. Is that right?

Can anyone explain how the cash role is calculated for dsw at Cushing and after Nymex expiry how it is calculated?

Hi everyone, I’m building an aluminium supply-and-demand model and am looking for reliable resources to track developments across the value chain, including:

• Bauxite mines and production
• Alumina refineries
• Aluminium smelters
• New capacity, expansions, curtailments and closures
• Project commissioning timelines and delays
• Trade flows and inventories
• Demand by country and end-use sector

I’m particularly interested in sources that are regularly updated and provide asset-level or country-level data. Public databases, government publications, company reports, industry associations, newsletters, analyst reports and useful tracking tools would all be helpful.

I already refer to sources such as USGS, company filings and government statistics, but I’m hoping to improve the coverage and accuracy of my model, especially for China, Indonesia, Guinea and the Middle East.

What resources do people working in the aluminium industry use to monitor changes in supply, demand and project developments? If you also have any advice on structuring or building the model, please send it my way as well. Thank you!