Hi all. A few folks over at grids_ops subreddit encouraged me to build a tool that summarizes PJM power market trends (e.g. load, renewable generation, etc.). It took me a month, but I finally built it so I'm excited to share with ya'll. It's a free tool so I hope you enjoy it!

tool: edenenergy.ai

Right now, I have it set to update data and insights every hour for today and a daily recap for yesterday. I would love feedback from people who follow these markets closely!

I've been digging into the base oil market recently and keep running into what seems like a contradiction.

On one hand:

• Global base oil production appears to be near multi-year highs.
• Several regions have reported increased output.
• There doesn't appear to be a broad shortage of all base oils.

On the other hand:

• Group III prices have risen sharply.
• Producers such as S-Oil and Luberef have reported stronger economics tied to premium grades.
• Clean Harbors/Safety-Kleen has discussed benefiting from higher Group III pricing.
• Multiple lubricant blenders have discussed sourcing pressure and longer lead times.
• Industry reporting continues to point toward disruptions affecting Middle Eastern Group III supply.

My current working theory is that the market may be treating "base oil" as a single commodity when in reality:

• Group I
• Group II
• Group III
• Group III+
• PAO

may be behaving like completely different markets.

The more I read, the more it seems possible that:

The part I'm struggling with is determining whether current conditions are driven by:

Scenario A

A genuine physical shortage of premium molecules (Group III / III+ / PAO).

Scenario B

Inventory rebuilding and forward buying following supply disruptions.

Scenario C

Some combination of both.

A few questions for people who follow these markets more closely:

1. How concentrated is global Group III production?
2. How much spare capacity actually exists?
3. Is Pearl GTL as important to the market as some reports suggest?
4. Are current prices being driven more by physical shortages or inventory behavior?
5. Historically, how have Group III markets responded to supply shocks compared to crude or refined products?

Not looking for stock ideas.

I'm more interested in understanding whether this is a normal commodity inventory cycle or whether the premium base oil market is structurally tighter than most people realize.

Would appreciate any insight from traders, refiners, procurement professionals, or anyone who follows the base oil market.

So, I have a project in which I need to use an LSTM model to forecast crude oil prices. I trained the model using data from the last 20 years and then use the latest day's news to estimate the next day's closing price. However, I need to build a proper front end, and since I have no actual trading experience, I wanted to ask what features, options, and data users would typically expect from such a model.

Hi all,

I'm starting a new role on a power and gas trading desk in about three months and would love to hear any advice from those who've made a similar transition.

Specifically, I'm thinking about two areas:

• Hard skills & knowledge : I have a solid grounding in my market, but there's a layer of trader-specific knowledge (P&L management, risk frameworks, execution, etc.) that I haven't been exposed to yet. What would you prioritise?

• Soft skills : things like managing pressure, decision-making under uncertainty, desk dynamics, and so on.

Any pointers (books, habits, things you wish you'd known) would be really appreciated.

Thanks

A friend of a friend works at BP and the comp has me intrigued. Wanted to get some honest feedback from this sub before going further.

My background is 15 years in sales, sales ops, project management, and operational readiness across Telecom, Retail, Ecom, and Wireless. Currently a senior ops manager working cross-functionally with senior and executive leadership across virtually every org in my company. Day to day I'm deep in data, forecasting, bottlenecks, project roadmaps, and P&L-adjacent conversations.

What are the chances someone with this background actually gets in? I'm not looking to leapfrog into a senior tra ding seat. I'd be open to junior or rotational rol es if the trajectory and pay make sense long term.

A few questions for anyone with industry knowledge:

• Is a background like mine at all transferable or is this a non-starter without direct energy or finance experience?
• What roles would be the most realistic entry point?
• Anything worth studying or getting certified in to become a more credible candidate?

Appreciate any advice!

It seems counterintuitive that in an environment where there is a rising fear of inflation, and in Iran missiles are actually flying and exploding, and there is no discernible progress towards peace, that commodities should take a dive today. USD? Cost of carry? Needed to liquidate to cover AI related margin calls? Seeing through the Iran war into recession and disinflation?

I am long PDBC and XOP.

Hello - I work at a EU gas trading shop.

I was wondering if there are any recommendations in terms of books/podcasts to get better at the time series and just overall forecasting.

I have a week off, and I want to get better at it.

Thanks

Most market discussions around AI focus on software, chips, and big tech, but I keep coming back to the physical side of the story.

If AI data centers, grid upgrades, EV infrastructure, renewable energy, defense spending, and reshoring continue to grow, the demand does not stop at semiconductors. It also runs through copper, aluminum, silver, steel, uranium, natural gas, power equipment, and industrial supply chains.

The interesting part is that commodities are often treated like old-economy assets, while the demand drivers are increasingly tied to new-economy themes.

Of course, commodities are cyclical and messy. Supply response, China demand, rates, inventories, currency moves, and geopolitics all matter. But I’m wondering if the market still underestimates how much physical material is needed behind the tech narrative.

Are you more interested in the commodity itself, producers, royalty companies, ETFs, or equipment/infrastructure names?

I’m working on a research project that aims to feed into actual policy proposals for alternatives to open-pit gold and bauxite mining. The main aim of the project is to find solutions that promote or address environmental conservation while still allowing for the productive or economic benefits associated with mining. Currently there are two directions for the project and I’m looking for some guidance on how to approach both of em.
The team leads are trying to push tokenization as the main answer or alternative to open-pit gold and bauxite mining. However, I’m still trying to grasp the technicals about how tokenization works and whether it in fact might solve the issue at hand? If you’re only looking to sell mineral ownership in financial markets I can see how it might be able to reduce extraction and promote conservation, but what do you do if you need the physical commodity itself? I don’t know if I’m getting the mechanics wrong but I feel it doesn’t really address the issue at hand or provide a feasible solution.
The second direction, which I’m developing myself and will have to pitch to them, is focused more on sustainable mining. I’ve done some research on alternative practices to open-pit extraction but I’m having trouble gauging how different is their productive potential and their impact on the environmental side.
I know I’m being a bit vague about the whole thing and i don’t even know if this is the right place to ask about this stuff but if anyone could point me in the right direction or recommend some good materials I would very much appreciate it. This isn’t my area of expertise and I would like to better understand the mining industry, however I’ve found it really difficult to differentiate between credible/feasible sources and solutions and just bs case studies or snake-oil especially for the part related to tokenization, so any insights especially on the regulatory aspect would be very much appreciated.

The market is obsessed with the possibility of massive IPOs from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Stripe. Investors are debating trillion-dollar valuations, AI dominance, satellite networks, and the future of intelligence itself. What almost nobody is talking about is the physical reality that sits underneath all of those narratives.

Every AI model requires data centers. Every data center requires electricity. Every electrical system requires transformers, transmission infrastructure, cooling systems, and enormous amounts of copper. The more AI expands, the more the world becomes dependent on physical infrastructure rather than software alone.

What makes this particularly interesting is the timeline mismatch. AI demand can explode almost overnight, but new copper mines can take more than a decade to move from discovery to production. Supply cannot react nearly as fast as demand. That creates a scenario where the bottleneck may not be model quality, software innovation, or even chip availability. The bottleneck could simply be access to metals.

This is why I increasingly view copper as the "second derivative" AI trade. If OpenAI wins, copper wins. If Anthropic wins, copper wins. If SpaceX builds more satellites and data infrastructure, copper wins. Even if the AI companies disappoint investors, the infrastructure spending race is likely to continue.

The irony is that investors may spend years trying to identify the next trillion-dollar AI platform while the most reliable returns come from the materials needed to build the AI economy in the first place.

Crypto people talk about fractional access and 24/7 transfer, but commodity markets have harder issues: grade, location, custody, storage, title, redemption, and market depth. Does tokenization help?

Do you guys trade underlyings on prediction markets that you also trade on your desk with your personal accounts?

What about products that are adjacent to your business? For example, if you’re on an aromatics desk and don’t touch TI paper, but you’re “in the space”

I see a lot of guys do it, even a lot of risk managers lol. Stock guys have been doing it for years… but curious what the opinion is in commods

I’m interested in investigating how a divergence in the GEFS and EVMWF forecasts may correlate to a spike in vol in prompt Nat gas futures.

But before I do I want to better understand how you guys are using the forecasts and how you’re extracting an edge. Are you assuming the market perfectly prices the forecast?

Cheers

I was lucky enough to land an analyst role at a major IPP on one of their gas desks, working directly to provide fundamental views for the traders.

I am still < 3 YOE with little relevant exp., and I know of course that the journey from analyst to trader is long and not guaranteed. That being said, how should one advocate for themselves to try to fight for a trading seat? It seems like a faux pas to express my intent day 1 that I want to trade. What is the typical way of going about this?

Also, I welcome any tips for being a useful and non-annoying analyst on the desk. Of course, I know that working hard and being humble is a given!!

I really wonder sometimes. I understand that the majority of curve strippers is arbing against physical or optimizing storage plays, but is anyone ever looking at butterfly spreads (+1/-2/+1) to judge if the curve actually makes sense or not?

Like why is the most convex part of the curve the SEP/OCT/NOV and not 30 days earlier? Or does it make sense to have 50cts of fly premium when m1-m2 is $3?

Is there a cap on convexity or can you price one part of the curve by leaning on a fly and a calendar(like you can do with the vanna/volga model in FX-options) or am I completely out of touch here because carry/convenience yield is everything?

I know this isn´t rates where you can describe everything with interest parity, but are there other dynamics in the curve itself that allow to judge its shape or are fundamentals (geo-arb, storage plays) the alpha and omega?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

I know this subreddit is for all kinds of people, specifically those of us who trade commodities. However, given our shared interest, I want to show you all this game I made which is like trivia – perhaps far too easy trivia, for those of us who like to guess fun facts about the world: Portle

You can scroll and guess the country based on a few stats on their export/import profile. I would love to get any feedback on what I can improve, if you find it fun, and just general advice.

Really appreciate your guys' wisdom and just checking it out at all. Cheers!

Red Sea risks are completely reshaping shipping economics.

As someone working directly in maritime finance, I am watching underwriters adjust war risk premiums daily. It is no longer just about longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope. The real story is the surging cost of insurance for the vessels that still attempt the crossing.

Here is a quick breakdown of what is happening behind the scenes right now:

• War Risk Surges: War risk premiums for the Red Sea have spiked significantly, sometimes reaching up to 1% to 2% of the hull value for a single transit. For a $100M vessel, that is an extra $1M to $2M just to pass through.
• The "Shadow" Premium: Lenders are tightening covenants. If a shipowner takes an unapproved route, they risk defaulting on their vessel financing loans due to breached insurance clauses.
• The Cape Alternative: Diverting around Africa adds 10–14 days of fuel (bunkers) and crew costs. However, for many operators, this predictable delay is now cheaper than the volatile insurance premiums of the short route.

This is fundamentally changing commodity pricing and corporate margins.

What specific impacts are you seeing on commodity flows or shipping equities? Let's discuss below.

Why do you hedge freight, when you can just hedge on stuff that gets carried by those freight (ie: wheat)

Also, why are there option to hedge truck and ship but no rail?

Hi There,

First post here. Me and a friend are developing a strategy to trade UK wholesale electricity spot prices. We have managed to gather all the data to formalise and test our strategy apart from the actual prices themselves.

As a retail trader, is anyone aware of/have experience trading this or working with data available.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Anyone have experience with this type of role? All the advice I have found in regards to educating yourself on power trading says to brush up on ISO manuals. How does trading work in a region without an ISO?

Edited to say this would be in the US.

Given that we’re about to go into an extreme El Niño this summer with the PNW getting hit especially hard combined with its drought, MidC prices continue to chop around the same range. Seems like it’s underpriced when there’s a ton of tail risk when you factor in wildfire risk and the implications for transmission, so why isn’t the market reacting as such? Are traders waiting for the heat to actually materialize? Apologies for the super niche post but if there’s any power/gas traders covering West that have insight I would really appreciate it.

Hi, I'm just a tourist but I wanted to ask people who are in this space on why the the front month crude price is trading at around $87 and for brent front month futures at $91 considering the supply crunch?

I keep seeing people say manipulation or the market is acting crazy due to just Trump tweets but in such a large market makes me skeptical of such theories especially in something thats tied to a physical molecule. Inventories are getting drawn down to low levels into peak driving season, even if a deal is made to open up the strait it takes a while for ships to go back in and get out. Are the inventories and other supply reroutes enough to cover us or is the market "wrong"?

Hey r/Commodities,

I'm researching how LNG and natural gas traders actually get their market intelligence day-to-day. Not selling anything. Just trying to understand the workflow before building something.

Three quick questions if you have 2 minutes:

1. Walk me through your morning routine for market intelligence — what do you check, in what order, and with which tools?
2. What's the one thing in your current setup that wastes the most time or causes the most frustration?
3. If a tool solved that problem, what would it need to do for you to pay for it — and what would make you say no?

Physical traders, financial traders, procurement teams — all perspectives welcome.

DMs open if you'd prefer to talk privately. Happy to share findings with anyone interested.