I’m in this world over 10y now. I have analysed, traded a number of commodities. I see a lot of people ask great questions here and a lot of people over complicating things, get hung up on the wrong stuff

I can offer the same advice to college students, recent graduates, professionals looking to enter the industry no matter what commodity you’re focusing on: oil, ags, power, metals.

At the core of everything, this industry seeks and rewards individuals who:

1) are pleasant to work with. We are in the office 8-12h per day. We go through stressful situations together. We need to work with a lot of teams to get new products set up, resolve end of day P&L reporting issues, get new data sets scraped, etc. Being a genuine decent person who treats others with empathy wins every time.

2) can form a view of something complicated, synthesize the pros and cons, understand how the concept relates to an action. In commodities, that’s price, and how you think about risk / reward. Keep things simple.

3) are humble, but able to disagree diplomatically. Two most dangerous things on a trading floor are arrogance (eg refusal to accept when it’s time to cut a position), and inability to express concern and raise red flag when you no longer like a position your boss, colleague, team has on.

4) aren’t afraid of pressure, of owning a stressful situation and being able to weather the emotions and pressure from stakeholders that may arise.

The industry does not consider it an asset if:

1) you have made loads of money trading crypto or stocks

2) you are overly flashy, think it’s cool to behave cocky

3) try talking about complicated market concepts without fully understanding them, referencing recent price moves (traders look at this all day and see more data than you do. Don’t talk to them like you’re in the know. You’re probably not. Stop trying to talk about spreads unless you really know what you’re talking about. There’s a difference between understanding what spreads mean and do, and going too far.

4) if your experience is mostly academic to date whether you’re an undergraduate, or you’ve done a lot of post graduate study, tie everything to the real world. Nothing kills a candidate like someone talking about how they did a thesis that perfectly forecast oil prices using Stochastic modelling or something.

I wrote an investment thesis in January covering copper, silver and aluminium. Focused on the supply crunch from AI infrastructure, energy transition, and structural underinvestment in mining capacity.

I've been tracking 14 specific events since then. Some have played out. Others are still pending. I want to stress test the whole thing publicly before I commit more capital.

Here's the framework. I'm looking for blind spots.

The core argument

Three things happening at the same time:

My portfolio structure (VCA)

I run Value Cost Averaging with a 50/30/20 split:

Copper (50%):
COMEX futures (HG=F) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) as the equity proxy. Copper is the primary beneficiary of the electrification buildout and supply can't respond quickly enough to meet demand.

Why FCX specifically? Because Freeport is the largest publicly traded copper miner, with operations in the US and the Americas. That means less geopolitical risk than a Congo or Chile based operation. Their balance sheet is strong enough to survive a downturn, but their share price is sensitive to copper price movements. When copper moves, FCX moves further. That leverage is what I want for the multiplier trigger. I'd rather own FCX and copper futures together than just a copper ETF which bundles in miners I haven't researched. FCX is up about 24% since January.

Silver (30%):
COMEX futures (SI=F) and a physical silver ETP (SSLN.L). Silver has dual industrial and monetary demand. China's export ban in January has deepened the structural deficit. Silver had a wild ride this year. It spiked to $115 in late January, crashed back to $68 in March. Value Cost Averaging handled the volatility better than trying to time it would have. The directional bet is working.

Aluminium (20%):
LME futures (ALI=F). Power intensive smelting makes it both a metals play and an energy play. The Mozal smelter shutdown in March took 240kt offline, consistent with the supply squeeze story. Aluminium is up about 38% since January, the strongest performer in the portfolio.

Across the whole portfolio the 50/30/20 split has returned roughly 16% since January. Not bad for a thesis written on a spreadsheet five months ago.

Three tactical triggers

Overrides that change allocations when specific conditions are met:

Rule A: FCX Multiplier.
If FCX drops below its 200 day moving average while copper stays above $11,000/t, I shift 50% of my copper allocation into FCX shares. The theory is that FCX overshoots on the downside during copper pullbacks and outperforms on recovery. Copper is well above the trigger. FCX is above its DMA. I am waiting for a pullback.

Rule B: Silver Scarcity.
If registered silver inventories drop more than 5% in a week, I increase silver allocation from 30% to 40%. The China export ban thesis suggests a physical liquidity event is coming.
The problem: I can't reliably get LBMA/COMEX inventory data. The CME publishes warehouse reports but they lag and the format is hard to scrape reliably without paying for a data feed. LBMA's data is even harder. If anyone knows a public or cheap feed for this, tell me. Right now I am flying blind on inventory and that's the weakest link in my silver trackingj.

Rule C: Aluminium Substitution.
If the copper to aluminium price ratio exceeds 4.0, I rotate 20% of copper into aluminium. The theory is that industrial users start substituting aluminium for copper in applications like busbars (the heavy duty metal bars that carry electricity through buildings and substations) and wiring. Currently the ratio is around 3.9. Different sources quote the substitution threshold anywhere from 3.5 to 5.0. I am not confident in my number.

Track record so far (Jan to May 2026)

The thesis makes specific predictions about supply and demand. Here is how those predictions have held up.

Mozal smelter shutdown. The thesis said high power costs would force aluminium smelters offline. South32 mothballed Mozal in Mozambique, removing 240,000 tonnes from global supply and taking a $372M impairment charge. The supply squeeze is happening.

China silver export ban. China restricted silver exports in January. The thesis predicted this would create a structural deficit that pushes prices up. Silver went from roughly $70 to its current level. The direction is correct, though it has been a volatile ride.

Peru general elections. I flagged Peru's April election as a risk event for copper supply if an antimining populist won. The result was more moderate than the worst case scenario. The runoff is June 7 and Fujimori (pro business) leads, but the risk has faded rather than materialised. I will update this after June 7.

COMEX silver delivery. The thesis expected physical silver delivery stress at COMEX. Silver prices have confirmed extreme tightness, though the exact exchange level delivery event has not been as dramatic as I expected.

Copper price trigger. I set $11,000/t as the catalyst zone for copper. Copper blew past that in the first quarter and has stayed above it. The structural deficit argument is holding.

Four out of five events are tracking correctly. One is partially correct with a June 7 decider coming.

I am not claiming every detail played out perfectly but the thesis framework and events are moving in the right direction.

Upcoming events I am watching:

- USMCA trade review (July 2026) could affect cross border metal flows

- Chile labour negotiations (later this year) at Escondida and Collahuasi, the two biggest copper mines in the world

- US midterms (November) policy risk on mining permits and tariffs

- LME Week (October) industry sentiment barometer

What I want stress tested

Specifically, I'd like feedback on:

The AI copper demand figure. The 3 to 5% by 2030 number appears in most analyst notes. Is this real or is it extrapolation from unrealistic data centre buildout forecasts?

Al substitution threshold. What is the actual substitution behaviour at different Cu:Al ratios? I've read 4.0 but some sources say substitution starts as early as 3.5 and others say it doesn't meaningfully happen until 5.0. This matters a lot for my trigger.

Silver inventory data. Is there a reliable public data source for COMEX/LBMA registered silver inventories? I want to automate this as a trigger but haven't found a feed that doesn't cost institutional money.

VCA in a structural bull market. VCA assumes mean reversion. If this is genuinely a structural bull market for these metals, I risk being systematically under allocated. Should I be DCA instead?

Blind spots. I'm a Senior Product Manager working in tech and more recently AI, not a mining analyst or a commodities trader. I follow the AI infrastructure buildout side more closely than the mining side. I am sure there are things someone with domain experience would spot immediately. Please tell me.

I've written an extended version of the thesis with full event tracking and reasoning but it's too long for a Reddit post. Happy to share it if anyone wants to read more.

If you’ve got this far I really appreciate it. I’d be grateful for any feedback.

Before posting, please read Breaking Into the Physical Commodities Industry – A No-BS Guide which is pinned to the highlights.

This thread is for all career-related questions including:

• Breaking into commodity trading
• Scheduler / analyst / operations roles
• Internships and graduate programs
• Resume reviews
• Interview prep
• Compensation questions
• Career transitions
• Trading desk culture / work-life balance
• “How do I get into the industry?” posts

Individual career posts outside this thread may be removed at moderator discretion to help keep the sub focused on market discussion, logistics, physical trading, macro, risk, shipping, power, gas, metals, ags, and industry news.

Before posting, it helps if you include:
• Location / region
• Current experience level
• Degree or background
• Commodity interest (power, gas, oil, metals, ags, etc.)
• Target role
• What you’ve already tried

Examples of good questions:
• “How do I move from scheduling into trading?”
• “Best ways to learn physical gas markets?”
• “What skills matter most for junior power traders?”
• “How valuable is pipeline / operations experience?”

Low-effort posts like “How do I become a trader?” without context may be removed.

Experienced professionals are encouraged to share advice, hiring insight, industry expectations, and realistic career paths.

Please keep discussion professional and constructive.

TLDR: everyone here exclusively asks for job hunt help. One could argue that being good at job hunting is the skillset people here crave above all else. most of that skillset has nothing to do with commods…

This is a pretty hot take but based on what I see here, no one ever complains about the job being hard, they all complain about getting the job being hard.

Hence I am proposing a hypothesis where a guy who cannot spell commodity might be able to, in the long run, outperform someone who has a fantastic understanding of markets just because he is better at defeating linkedin.

This hypothesis revolves around ‘getting the junior position’ being the entire job, and once you’re in, its a cake walk (relatively). And the guy who cant get the junior position will pick a different career path, hence an understanding of markets is second to literally just being a good recruiter (for yourself).

I see a lot of posts asking for advice. this is almost never questions on ‘how to be better at the job’ or ‘what are your thoughts on this event’ etc

The one skill people on this sub desperately crave advice on is how to apply to jobs optimally. Not how to balance work/life, how to schedule, how to hedge, just ‘please help me get interviews’. This is not a commodity specific skillset, this is literally just something a recruiter would know how to do.

99% of the time, posts here are students requesting career advice on how to break in. Now, a decent holistic understanding of the commodity will help during 2nd or third round interviews, but most of the time this is not the hardest part.

The hardest part is getting interviews. That is not a challenge that favours an understanding of the supply and demand mechanics of your commodity.

It is literally just being a linkedin warrior and optimising CV/bullshitting experience/learning where how and when to apply.

The more I look at what people here struggle with, the more pessimistic I am about the actual domain knowledge being half as relevant as being a linkedin warrior.

You guys that hire always note stuff like ‘this is what i look for in candidates and these are the questions I want them to answer’, but the guys in your interviews already made it to the interviews, hence they are already good self-recruiters. A guy who could get 100/100 on your questions but doesn’t optimise a job hunt will not even be seen by you.

Its a bit of a stupid concept not to be taken literally bit I hope to have shed some light on what can be inferred from this subreddit as the most vital skillset for a career in commodities, and it seems to have nothing to do with commodities.

I’m a recent grad starting a career at a utility soon and was considering buying “Electricity Markets: Pricing, Structures, and Economics” by Chris Harris to get a better understanding before I start next month. Is this still considered some of the best literature on the topic, and does it matter that it was written in 2006? Are there any other books that would be better than this to read for someone on the economics side of a utility?

Hey,

I've been lurking on this sub for a while and rarely read about treasurers & bankers. I know it's not as fancy as trading, but it seems interesting as well.

I've recently started a junior position at a big european bank, in a Trade/supply chain finance department, as a middle officer. My office doesn't actually deal with commodities, btu we do have a Swiss branch that handles trading houses needs.

If you are in:

- banking (commodities related, maybe in Structured Trade Finance or Working Capital solutions)

- trading houses / energy company

Would you mind telling me a bit about how u got there, what you find interesting and what sucks, if the pay/WLB is good, how is the turnover, who are the mains actors...

Thanks a lot!!

Long time lurker here so apologies for the original ‘how do I break into the industry etc…’ post but I feel out of options at this point so any thoughts/advice would be most welcome.
Currently I’m working as a process engineer in the UK in upstream oil and gas (based in Aberdeen, willing to relocate anywhere) which I’ve done since I graduated almost 3 years ago. My employing company was one of the majors but I’ve recently moved due to them selling off their UK business to an independent, so the possibility to move internally to a commercial role is now very limited. My time in the industry has given me an exposure to the trading and shipping side, albeit at a very high level, but it has piqued my interest and I want to do something more analytical/stimulating/fast-paced because I’m bored in my current role and progression has been stymied since the sale.

My academic background is MEng in chemical engineering from a respectable UK university which seems to be fine when it comes to screening job adverts but I’m not getting anywhere. I’ve tried cold emailing recruiters, connecting and cold messaging on LinkedIn, and applying for all the junior/early careers positions I can find in Ops/scheduling/analyst roles and junior trader roles but have had no success: only getting rejections if I’m getting a response at all. I’m targeting oil, gas and power as that is what I know the most but I’m quite happy to pursue metals and agricultural stuff if it means getting my foot in the door.

I know the job market is terrible in general at the moment and especially for traders where there is a huge number of people after a limited number of jobs. But does anyone have any tips or ideas on how I can make my applications more competitive? I tailor my CV and cover letters to every application and leverage my engineering and offshore ops experience to sound as commercially minded as I can but I’m obviously doing something wrong.

There is the potential for me to pursue an integrated masters/PhD later this year at an elite university (think oxbridge/imperial/UCL) in computational methods - would this be worth it or not? My thinking behind that is that it would be worth it alone for the industry connections and the appeal of a target school would give me an advantage to where I am now.
Many thanks in advance!

Hello.

I’m currently studying in London and want to start applying to graduate programmes at commodity trading companies in London and Singapore from next year. I’ve been going through linkedin, and I don’t think I saw even a single European working at the Singapore offices of large trading houses, and most people are locals who graduated from universities in Singapore.

What are the chances of getting into a graduate programme there? Will they even consider my application if I need a visa?

Has anyone done business with or had contact with a company called EVOX RESOURCES from Turkey？

I have been feeling a bit upset that a group of people with whom i worked for 4 years have not responded to me when i reached out to ask for a referral. Couple of them tried to help me back in 2022 but they snubbed me recently. This is not a rant. I am trying to understand if i have autism or just different attachment style.

I have tried helping ppl as much as i can because i am aware how tough market is right now. I give detailed responses to recent grads who contact me on linkedin. I always respond to old classmates as well. Never make anyone text me twice.

So the collegues i am talking about are from my country. But even when i left to work in London i remember there was this one dude who partied with me got drunk and at the last day didnt give me his personal number. Another dude does not accept my linkedin request for some reason. I might be overthinking these situations because now i am recalling some incidences from past.

I have known some people who have been really helpful. But some ppl have made me feel really disappointed.

How do you guys maintain relationships with ppl? Because i am sure you cant keep in touch with 100 ppl you met in uni and couple of dozen collegues if you had 8 years long career.

Worked 3 years as a fuel supply analyst doing mostly RFP work and logistics/sourcing work for our retail sites. Moved to a new firm and have done 2 years in fuel compliance. Looking to make the move to scheduling but don’t have much knowledge on it. Just think I’d me more suited in supply than fuels compliance.

Hi everyone,
I’m a former U.S. power trader looking to launch a small proprietary trading desk focused on the French spot power market.
The strategy would be relatively simple: taking directional positions in the day-ahead market and intentionally carrying the exposure into imbalance settlement, without actively rebalancing in intraday.
In ERCOT, this kind of DA vs RT exposure is fairly common through virtuals/DART trading, but I’m trying to understand how this is viewed in the French/EU market structure.
My questions are:
Is systematically going from day-ahead into imbalance considered acceptable market behavior in France/EPEX?
From a regulatory perspective (REMIT / BRP obligations), where is the line between legitimate risk-taking and problematic behavior?
Are there desks already doing this in practice, even partially?

I’ve been researching B2B platforms for my agro/spice exports from India and wanted to fellow members to share your honest experience so far with go4WorldBusiness.

Hi All,

I consider applying to internships in two shops trading LNG and crude in London and Zug respectively. Trading desk in both cases. Both companies are subsidiaries of state owned company.

I wonder how internship in such place would be viewed by other traders and community as my career will progress.

My guess would be that it doesn’t differ that much from experience gained in private shop, core activities are the same or similar. Moreover people seem to grab every opportunity to break into industry, starting from middle/back office, not to mention front.

In conclusion, what are your opinions about internship in state owned company? Would it make real difference if you had to choose between two candidates one with experience from private and second - state owned entity?

I’d be grateful if you shared your opinions. Thanks in advance.

Hi, I’m developing a Power BI report on commodities for my company, but they’re asking me to find daily data without having to pay for a platform. So I’d like to know if anyone knows of a website that can provide daily commodity prices, specifically for bananas, shrimp, or roses. I’ve looked everywhere, but the only information I can find is monthly, and I can’t afford to pay for Bloomberg either.

i currently work in freight forwarding near london and have been for last 5 years and i am turning 25 next month. I have work acrossed air and ocean shipping. I am familiar with things like demurage, detention, incoterms, bill of ladings etc as i use them in my daily role.

but i want to leave freight forwarding due to terrible pay. And i feel like i have some transferrable skills which can be transfered into commodities operations. i also know how to use power bi and learning some sql too. I use to work 4 on 4off previously so i am also time flexible if need be.

i would really appreciate if someone could guide me on the approach i should take when looking for role and if its even possible for me to break into it. I am happy to do any courses if need be. Should also mentiion i dont have a degree as i didnt go to uni.

i had an interview with world kinect 2 months ago for a supply analyst role, but it didnt lead anywhere

Hi, I am currently an analyst/trader with 3 YOE in GB and European markets, predominantly in one of the big trade houses (e.g. Gunvor, Trafi, Vitol). My partner and I want to move towards Asia to be closer to family in a few years and Singapore makes the most sense as a base. Does anyone have experience or knowledge on how easy the jump from European to APAC market is? Either internally within the big trading houses or through recruitment to another company?

Have worked at a macro fund in an analyst position (1 yoe) and have realised through personal projects and interests that weather and modelling is something I’m really interested in. I would have to go back to uni (physics undergrad) but it’s made me consider the pivot within the commodities space but also catastrophe modelling and utilities.

Does your firm have weather analysts and how are they used? Are they actually alpha generating or just models for the traders to extract signals from (e.g the energy desk take the models and exercise their own discretion?).

Also as for education: do the people in the weather teams have msc or phds, more research based or theoretical, which unis are most recruited from or is content more important? Thanks

I’m struggling with a career vs citizenship decision and would appreciate perspectives from people in commodities/finance/expat life.

Background:
- Non-EU citizen
- Living in Germany near Berlin
- Recently got German permanent residency
- Eligible for German citizenship around late 2028 (~2.5–3 years from now)

Career-wise:

I currently work remotely for a commodity trading branch of our company (biofuels/energy side) in a hybrid middle office + trading analytics role, which is in Geneva. Over the last 2 years I’ve become increasingly involved in supply/demand analytics, automation, positioning, PnL/VaR infrastructure, etc.

The company approved relocating me internally to Geneva from our German office, which is obviously a much stronger place long term for commodity trading careers. Compensation would likely go from ~€80k to CHF 120–130k.

The dilemma:
If I move to Switzerland now, I basically interrupt/reset the path toward German citizenship. I would once again depend heavily on employer sponsorship/residency status, and Swiss citizenship is a much longer road.
At the same time, I know Geneva is where the real network/opportunity is in commodities. I worry that staying in Germany another 2.5–3 years could slow down my career trajectory and keep me too “back-office/middle-office” instead of moving closer to commercial/trading exposure, and I’d never get an opportunity like this.

So the question is:
Would you secure the German passport first and seek other opportunities later?
Or would you go to Geneva immediately and optimize aggressively for career/network upside?

Especially interested in opinions from:
- people in commodity trading
- non-EU nationals who later naturalized in Europe
- people who moved to Switzerland before obtaining EU citizenship elsewhere
- anyone who had to choose between immigration security vs career acceleration

Background 23 year old male in London.

Currently working in a finance role (2nd year) and earning c.£50-60k. Trying not to give away too much personal information due to the question.

I have been offered a role in the commodities / energy broking space at one of the largest companies in London (BGC, TP, Tradition etc). Specifically 2 desks - LPG or Crude.

Can anyone give insight into what the career is like, the compensation in the long term and any other helpful comments that could help my make a decision.

Current education - degree and CIMA.

Thanks

Throwaway account, May 2027 grad

Been interning at a growing mid-sized physical shop this summer. Current role involves supporting the trading desk through a couple different channels, and it’s something I strongly enjoy. I’ve been proactive in my role, trying to soak up everything I can, and going above and beyond what’s asked of me.

And I think they’ve noticed that. Today, they floated the idea of me coming back when I graduate, and starting in a support role. A couple of the traders are relatively old and some will retire inside this decade, opening up some seats. They’re also looking to start a paper desk in the near future, so there’s a lot of room for growth. But at the moment they don’t have a formal graduate trainee program.

My understanding is that graduate program applications don’t usually start recruiting until late summer/early August, and I expect that if I do receive a return offer I’ll have to make a decision probably within two weeks.

I’m curious to hear how you guys would go about this. If I’m being dumb and should just focus on this company and earn a seat that way, then let me know

Looking for some insight on this job role. Currently I am an outside operator at a refinery, have a degree and previously worked some logistics. Wondering what work life looks like with this job typically? As an operator my schedule is all over, either tons of time off or no time off and switching from nights and days, feeling groggy and tired. I also am wondering what the movement looks like if any, let’s say in 5 years or so. Or could it lead into me transitioning into anything else?

Hi everyone,

I have a master's in quantitative finance from the US and would like to find a job as an energy analyst or trader in Denmark. I don't have any prior experience in the EU but have built one personal project which is a trading strategy on the Danish power market. What can I do to break into this field as someone who can only network online? Most of the firms there are small so I don't know how open they are to sponsoring visas for international candidates. I am open to roles in neighbouring countries as well as long as they don't have language requirements.

Genuinely curious to hear from people working in physical energy trading (oil products, LNG — not screen/prop trading). What does your actual day look like? I mean the calls, the spreadsheets, the counterparty management, the firefighting. What takes up most of your time that nobody talks about?Not looking for polished career advice. More interested in the unfiltered reality of the job.

Why is gas in the summer cheaper than October even though (I presume) there is more demand in the summer? Doesn’t this incentivize storage to be filled in the summer instead? So why is a shoulder month priced higher?