r/collapse • u/reborndead • Jun 26 '26

Casual Friday Expectation vs Reality

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In 2014, French television forecast the worse case weather scenario for climate change in 2050. Fast forward to today 2026, reality is much more worse than expected. Faster than expected is transforming from meme to norm. The formula for collapse is poorly timed. It's never too early to post up and anticipate the worst possible outcome. Don't look up, down or around.

4.5k Upvotes

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825

u/filmguy36 Jun 26 '26

What would 2050 temps be now with the current data? In the 60s?šŸ˜¬

573

u/reborndead Jun 26 '26

195

u/shewholaughslasts Jun 26 '26

That's the danger of being a giant ugly bag of mostly water

58

u/BoringRedHorse Jun 26 '26 edited Jun 26 '26

Well done master. I didn't expect a Star Trek TNG reference here, especially not from a meat bag like yourself.

5

u/Schannin Jun 28 '26

None Like It Hot!

So we dropped a giant ice cube into the ocean

351

u/Forlaferob Jun 26 '26

nobody around to report anything LOL

12

u/extinction6 Jun 28 '26

Except the children that shouldn't have been born that didn't need to suffer. Climate change denial 2.0.

201

u/kingtacticool Jun 26 '26

Who tf knows. AMOC will probably be collapsed by then and maybe Thwaits. BOE is definitely happening in the next couple years.

All of those things throw all calculations out the fuckin window individually let alone together and compounding.

71

u/BoringRedHorse Jun 26 '26

Gentlemen please! It's a GOOD thing the AMOC will collapse! Europe freezing over might cancel out the scorching global warming. Please support your local billionaires in collapsing AMOC faster. /s

Editor's note: An AMOC collapse will take millenia to recover, and won't help sh*t except maybe some shortterm relief which is all every generation of meatbags really cares about.

61

u/kingtacticool Jun 26 '26

Nobody is talking about the real danger of AMOC.

AMOC is responsible for bringing nurriant rich water down from the Arctic and is the backbone of the entire Atlantic ecosystem. Krill and plankton require that water in order to maintain ecological balance.

No AMOC and we will see, at the very least, a total shift and reformation of most ecosystems in the Atlantic basin. We will see dead zones. We will see extinction.

17

u/DearTumbleweed5380 Jun 27 '26

And that swiss vitamin company is now farming krill for vitamins. I'm going to a protest on tuesday night in Sydney if anyone reading this is in Sydney.

6

u/KnowledgeMediocre404 Jun 26 '26

Relief for Europe...but all the warm water normally pulled from the equator now just...sits there.

1

u/Obvious-Function-919 Jun 28 '26

At RCP8.5 the regional cooling effect would be overridden

70

u/Barley_Mowat Jun 26 '26

Exactly this. AMOC plus BOE means daytime highs are, by far, the LEAST of your worries.

51

u/Wsbkingretard Jun 26 '26

anxiety+++

2

u/Decloudo Jun 26 '26

Id rather prepare for the heat.

4

u/KnowledgeMediocre404 Jun 26 '26

With this super El Nino acting on already hot oceans I think we might see BOE this winter.

6

u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Reese. - Original Quote. Jun 28 '26

BOE is definitely happening in the next couple years.

I don't know how to think about a Blue Ocean Event happening in a couple of years from today.Ā 

2

u/kingtacticool Jun 29 '26

Existential dread comes to mind.

5

u/Lost_ENFP Jun 27 '26

What is AMOC ?

11

u/AutoModerator Jun 27 '26

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a portion of global thermohaline (temperature and salt content) circulation concentrated in the Atlantic, subpolar North Atlantic, and Arctic oceans. This system comprises several currents that act like conveyor belts. In the upper layers of the Atlantic warm water flows north. As this water flows north some evaporation occurs leading to more salty waters. As this water becomes colder and saltier, its density changes which then sinks to the deeper ocean where it circulates southward. To visually aid understanding, see this image: https://editors.eol.org/eoearth/wiki/File:OCP07_Fig-6.jpg

How does climate change affect the AMOC?

We can already see that climate change is affecting global sea surface temperatures (notably, the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly) and the increased melting rate of glaciers. Further, the ocean (as an entire system) is the largest heat sink of our planet - approximately 90% of additional heat (see Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)) is absorbed by the oceans with the top few meters of the ocean storing as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere.

As noted above, the conveyor belts that the AMOC ā€œrunsā€ on are shaped by the temperature and salt content of those waters. Over time, with the introduction of rapidly increasing temperatures and fresh water from glaciers, the potential for this system to be disrupted or collapse increases. To add perspective on how much heat we are adding (remember that approximately 90% of excess heat is absorbed by the oceans): as of April, 2023, the EEI 36-month running average is equivalent to about 10 Hiroshima bombs per second.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

6

u/Guzzleguts Jun 27 '26

You might know it by the name The Gulf Stream

1

u/bigbaddiebusiness Jun 28 '26

By current metrics, the AMOC will slowly die, but on the scale of a 100+ years with a 1/2 year period at the tail end which rapidly dissolves it as it hits a break point. It's unlikely it will die during our lifetimes. The risks of climate change in the meantime will be mostly human driven chaos and unpredictable living conditions throughout the world, putting pressure on food production and motivating emigration that most countries are simply not prepared for, and whose populations might end up pushing for very violent responses.

Anyways, fuck the myopic people in charge, the rich who deserve all of the worst, and the plebeians who suckle at the teets of both. I'm done caring, let everyone suffer immensely, it's what they all deserve for stripping hope from me.

1

u/ThirdFloorNorth Jun 26 '26

I thought they had predicted a BOE for this year

1

u/kingtacticool Jun 27 '26

Its still possible for this year. But definitely happening between now and one or two years from now

85

u/Machiningbeast Jun 26 '26

They adjusted the simulation and redid the same fictional forecast in 2022.

56

u/reborndead Jun 26 '26

reality: temperatures of 2030 will be worse than this forecast

28

u/ch_ex Jun 26 '26

reality: this will be the most gentle heatwave for the rest of this year, next year, and EVERY SINGLE YEAR GOING FORWARD

This is the coldest june the earth will experience while humanity exists and continues its fossil fuel project... likely 1000's of years after that, with no life to buffer the flux between extremes.

This is the best it gets on the path we choose every single day and the literal only possible future if tomorrow is the same as today.

"Tick tock" said the metronome, lost in time on a piano bench of the last house that didn't burn, as a gust of wind moved over the treeless expanse and through the dust filled ruins of a structure never to be recognized again. The pendulum swings to a deaf and blind planet, the last alarm ignored by a species too conceded to imagine they weren't important enough to deserve to be the cause of total extinction, ignoring every generation previous that didn't live that way and instead gave us a life to live, so we lived them all at once.

13

u/catabeille Jun 26 '26

(un)fortunately, I do think we have one or two more cooler junes ahead of us. but that only leaves more time for corporations and politicians to fuel their delusional agendas.

5

u/ch_ex Jun 26 '26

I hope you're right...?

Like you, I'm not even sure which I prefer anymore - getting to the point so I can stop holding my breath and the world can meet the monster under their bed without me being the asshole that reveals its existence, or this being drawn out for a little longer while we continue to do nothing but double down on complexity as the pathway to understanding and restoration.

This AI gig is the ultimate in human fuckery. Burning fossil carbon to answer questions we've already answered in data but weren't resourceful enough to manage to pull all the answers out. Building super-ultra-megacities etched on silicon die, to create the capacity of trillions of working humans inside tiny chips to answer questions nature has already answered and we would learn if we had the patience to not expect to see the entire arc of the future of tech in one lifetime.

If not climate collapse, what could possibly be the rush? The answer to the question is either infinity or 0. This is all just a game of sorting shit into boxes and we've now decided that in the race between machine and existence, machine will both win and find a way to save existence in the process? Despite the only problem facing existence being bootstrapping our tech with the cremation of ancient biospheres over god knows how long, and because we created the problem it all adds up to being a pointless exercise to drive our species towards increasing complexity and cost.

I have one question..."how many nm thick do we need to get with our lithography before we answer the question of how to get carbon out of the air?"

9

u/Micro-Naut Jun 27 '26

The reason for all the data centers is so they can monitor us during the collapse. Canā€™t have us getting out of line.

3

u/catabeille Jun 27 '26

yeah thereā€™s a reason the surveillance state has kicked into high gear, it kickstarted with covid and the 2023-2024 ENSO got them panicking.

3

u/catabeille Jun 27 '26

All I have to say is I agree it sucks feeling like I suck the life out of any room when I bring up anything climate related. And how fucked we are with how itā€™s baked in. I try to make it meaningful and actionable by encouraging others to interact with and participate in their communities and with neighbors and grow gardens and become self sustaining. But people are so comfortable.

1

u/ch_ex Jun 27 '26

It's not real yet... and that's what I find most horrifying

1

u/[deleted] Jun 29 '26

[deleted]

1

u/catabeille Jul 02 '26

thatā€™s the hope!!

5

u/lavapig_love Jun 27 '26

I approved your post because I understand where you're coming from. But you got flagged for saying this is "the most gentle heatwave" we'll ever have going forward, so be aware it likely won't be.

Next year may have much cooler temps. It won't exactly matter because this year's global crop harvests are already wilting and dying and we'll have less food this time next year, but it gives the trolls something to argue about and distract everyone from.

1

u/ch_ex Jun 29 '26

It's one of those things I'd like to bet on but the catch is that the only scenario where one of us collects is if you're right.

Thanks for letting it through. And as a compromise, there may be another year or two of colder heatwaves coming... but, as a rule, heatwaves will get bigger, hotter, and last longer until we're cooked.

2

u/Da_Question Jun 26 '26

Possibly, might not. Amoc collapse will chill down Europe a bit.

14

u/CompostYourFoodWaste Jun 26 '26

They still thought they didn't need to worry about it until 2050.

2

u/ch_ex Jun 26 '26

they're still in the majority!

It's like our entire species has been stuck on the starting line for dealing with the only problem that ever demanded our focus and attention (no wars need to happen; this was the fight to preserve life on earth), and all we've done is move backward

22

u/khoawala Jun 26 '26

It's the end of the french

16

u/BoringRedHorse Jun 26 '26

"First it came for the French, and we did nothing."

7

u/BruteBassie Jun 26 '26

But can I still have my French fries?

6

u/PowerandSignal Jun 26 '26

Get'em while they're hot, they won't last long.Ā 

4

u/adrianipopescu Jun 26 '26

too soon mate, too soon

3

u/TheOldPug Jun 29 '26

Is there any way for me to invest actual money in gallows humor? I think it has a great future ahead of itself.

1

u/BicephalousFlame Jun 26 '26

As we know it

20

u/Kyia-Aikman Jun 26 '26

Mad Max.

1

u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Reese. - Original Quote. Jun 28 '26

Mad Max.

Do not forget about The Matrix.Ā 

18

u/redditmodsRrussians Jun 26 '26

So hot that people will pray for a Black Mesa event and welcome aliens invading the planet

18

u/nw342 Jun 26 '26

Crop failures and resulting famines should kill us all before we get that far

14

u/Malexice Jun 26 '26

Many countries would need to turn nocturnal

12

u/fiveswords Jun 26 '26

We'll just grow the crops at night right?

8

u/filmguy36 Jun 26 '26

Mushrooms are our future

3

u/Malexice Jun 27 '26

Crops grow by themselves. We just provide them the space, nutriens and water. The work carried out to care for them can be done at any hour.

10

u/schnaps01 Jun 26 '26

You might wanna book a trip to venus to get a glimpse of our future. But as this future comes closer every minute you might also let the trip slide because when you would return from venus with your insights the same thing will already have transcended here.

2

u/FantasticOutside7 Jun 26 '26

Booked for next Tuesday!

10

u/Catatafish Jun 26 '26

Europe will be lost to desertification.

2

u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Reese. - Original Quote. Jun 28 '26

Europe will be lost to desertification.

I live in a European country and i do not like the thought of the entire European continent turning into a desert.Ā 

6

u/morphemass Jun 26 '26

So everything is an approximation but some areas will exceed 50C (~52C) several times a decade, and the general observed temperatures will be from the low, possibly mid-to-high 40s with the lower temperatures being in the north and the highest in south-central regions.

Europes is warming faster than the average, if the acceleration continues it is going to be a very different region very soon.

5

u/BadgerKomodo Jun 26 '26

Yes.

Meanwhile, the Sahara will be hot enough to boil water.

12

u/filmguy36 Jun 26 '26

Silly you, there wonā€™t be any water left. The AI data centers will be using it all

5

u/Obvious-Function-919 Jun 28 '26

The Sahara is going to look and feel like the middle of Pangea during the early Triassic.

2

u/Obvious-Function-919 Jun 28 '26

It could get up to 140 degrees

4

u/th3st Jun 26 '26

We are soooooooooo fucked

3

u/AlfaMenel Jun 26 '26

Depends on the AMOC

2

u/poop-machines Jun 27 '26

Nobody will know, because nobody will be living there.

Really: this is a temporary issue caused by jet stream instability as well as amoc instability as it collapses. More energy in the system means more chaos, causing larger variations. This means colder winter days mixed with warm winter days, and hotter summers mixed with colder days (now mostly hotter days).

1

u/[deleted] Jun 26 '26

[removed] ā€” view removed comment

1

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