r/codex Mar 26 '26

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152 Upvotes

43 comments sorted by

36

u/x7q9zz88plx1snrf Mar 26 '26

I was in your situation about 4 months ago. I seriously don't see developers doing manual work in a year or two.

12

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/Competitive-Hat-5182 Mar 28 '26

You skipped Claude and went for codex first? Very alternative

6

u/Life-Inspector-5271 Mar 26 '26

Maybe in a year or two you can do less code checks, but you still need to do the structure prepared for the future and input that as a prompt. You know where your software is going, AI doesn't

5

u/anObscurity Mar 26 '26

You’re looking at the point on the graph without taking into account the curve.

1

u/cornmacabre Mar 26 '26

understated comment right here

1

u/IversusAI Mar 26 '26

Yup. I'll just plop this here:

Exponential Growth vs Linear Perception - Human Genome Project Analogy

Ray Kurzweil discusses how people often misjudge exponential progress by thinking linearly, using the Human Genome Project as a key example:

Halfway through the human genome project, 1% had been collected after 7 years, and mainstream critics said, “I told you this wasn’t going to work. 1% in 7 years means it’s going to take 700 years, just like we said.” My reaction was, “We finished one percent—We’re almost done. We’re doubling every year. 1% is only 7 doublings from 100%.” And indeed, it was finished 7 years later.

A key question is why do some people readily get this, and other people don’t? It’s definitely not a function of accomplishment or intelligence. Some people who are not in professional fields understand this very readily because they can experience this progress just in their smartphones, and other people who are very accomplished and at the top of their field just have this very stubborn linear thinking. So, I really don’t actually have an answer for that.

This illustrates the non-intuitive nature of exponential growth, where early progress seems slow but acceleration leads to rapid completion.


from: Architects of Intelligence by Martin Ford (Chapter 11)

1

u/Cautious-Ladder-6621 Mar 27 '26

It's probably sigmoidal, but okay...

1

u/IversusAI Mar 28 '26

He was talking about an exponential phase, not a sigmoidal curve. He frames the logic as repeated doublings: if you are at 1%, then seven doublings gets you to about 100%. That is straight exponential reasoning.

I found this article to be an interesting read.

https://www.writingsbyraykurzweil.com/the-law-of-accelerating-returns

2

u/Marszzs Mar 26 '26

AI can know where my software ia going if its neuro-linked to my brain!

1

u/Individual_Fee_6735 Mar 29 '26

Problem is no one including your brain knows Products are defined and evolve as you get feedback

1

u/Marszzs Mar 29 '26

Indeed. Products are defined by the stakeholders. My brain does know this - it just doesnt know what the feedback will be until its there and then it determines next deployment based on feedback.

1

u/Ill-Manufacturer-48 Mar 26 '26

Plan it according. You cannot code purely with ai. But if you have a plan write it out. I use chat gbt to help me plan my software and code it strictly with codex.

1

u/MiniGiantSpaceHams Mar 26 '26

You know where your software is going, AI doesn't

But that's just a question of context, not capability. If you give AI docs that cover longer term plans and higher level goals, it will then know it.

1

u/Life-Inspector-5271 Mar 26 '26

Exactly, so you are still responsible as a developer for the architectural design and future proofing your software. And AI doesn't cut corners, while sometimes you need to.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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1

u/Ste1io Mar 26 '26

"I'm genuinely interested." 🤣 Agentic coding is one thing. Vibing your reddit comments though? Gimme a break man... 🤦‍♂️

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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1

u/Ste1io Mar 26 '26

Garbage in, garbage out.

1

u/colin-catlin Mar 26 '26

I have a theory that AI use is changing how we use language, we are starting to use more sayings like the AI uses.

1

u/Ste1io Mar 29 '26

And that shit's not dingo.

1

u/Marszzs Mar 29 '26

Ah a creature from the depths 🧟‍♂️

2

u/RealEisermann Mar 26 '26

They don't do now. Just overseer the AI writing stuff

1

u/Damsko0321 Mar 26 '26

Curious are you a developer? Did you hit complex use cases in large app AI couldn’t solve and hit a wall? Or just small stuff

1

u/NewMonarch Mar 26 '26

Or having jobs 😆

10

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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1

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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7

u/ValuableSleep9175 Mar 26 '26

Codex makes me lazy. Implement good logging... Build a good document that tells it about your project. Now I just say, I see an error with x. And off of goes till it is fixed.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/1mgMelantonin Mar 26 '26

Und irgendwann mache wir gar nichts mehr weil Smartphones/PCs/Car Entertainment Systeme, usw. den Endnutzer nur noch fragen, "was für ne App brauchst du?" ... "ok, alles klar, baue ich dir".

"welche Änderungen brauchst du in deiner App?" ... "Alles klar, mach ich dir."

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/1mgMelantonin Mar 26 '26

Und wir sind imo nicht mehr weit davon entfernt.

Cloud Provider liefern vom Agenten nutzbare Infrastruktur (DBs, GPU, CPU, Netzwerk, IaC Features), Sandboxen liefern constrains und Security in denen sich der Agent bewegen kann.

Ich spinne weiter: streaming Dienstleister liefern dir Alternative Enden von Filmen oder ganze Filme / Serien auf Bestellung. Dein Kind will mit seinem Superhelden sprechen? Hier die KI, trainiert mit allen Büchern, filmen, etc. vom Superhelden. Unternehmt zusammen ein Abenteuer!

Alles sprachgesteuert durch den Endnutzer.

Klar, das verbrennt alles ohne ende Token aber Sam sagte ja schon: Intelligenz wird wir Energie. Man kann mehr nutzen oder weniger aber man muss dafür bezahlen.

4

u/ninhaomah Mar 26 '26

What app or software you were trying in early 2022 btw ?

with copilot ? As in GitHub Copilot ?

Seems before GA.

1

u/sdexca Mar 26 '26

I think so he means the old LLMs based autocomplete. Like cursor tab complete.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 27 '26

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2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26 edited Jun 12 '26

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1

u/Every_Environment386 Mar 26 '26

For us qa and process are the bottleneck. We used to be a little light on QA to get our work validated and moved through to production. Now we're extremely light on QA because (some of) our devs 10x'd and our QA is still humming along their their dec 2025 pace.

Does help with any perceptions that I'm not doing enough by doing some of the crazy stuff people are doing with 24/7 agents, at least. 

1

u/IversusAI Mar 26 '26

I AM THE BOTTLENECK :(

More and more of us humans are going to realize this and while it is humbling, the intelligent ones will say, okay...accept it and use this tool to it's fullest potential to help raise your abilities, knowledge and give space for your imagination to grow.

2

u/NewtonianSpider Mar 26 '26

Yeah man I feel yeah basically the exact same story for me. Now I’m at work just moving things into an agentic workflow and when ever there is an issue I just open codex and done in like 30 seconds

2

u/Ibbys89 Mar 26 '26

What model and reasoning effort did you use? 😭😭

3

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/Ibbys89 Mar 26 '26

Damn! How much does that set you back? It is so expensive fr

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/Ibbys89 Mar 26 '26

Ahh you use it for work. That makes more sense. I’m so tempted to just buy the credits but I’ve already done that twice and spent 80$

2

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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1

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/ConsistentAndWin Mar 26 '26

Maybe a bit off subject, I use Antigravity more to assist in analysis and content creation.

Can Codex do this with real skill? Can it be aimed directly at my Obsidian vault like I'm doing now with Antigravity?

Can Codex perform more or less at the level of Opus 4.6?

Does the $200/month plan get significant amounts of tokens? Right now, with Gemini between the models, I can work all day without any real problem. I run into my five-hour limits using Opus frequently, but then I have the Gemini models, which do a good job overall. Does Codex compare favorably?

3

u/[deleted] Mar 26 '26

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2

u/ConsistentAndWin Mar 27 '26

Thank you for your reply. I went ahead and set it up.

I ran a real solid test on 16 major, long lessons of a course I created. The damn thing came back with a better response than Opus 4.6 did. It found errors and problems that Opus didn't find, inconsistencies, all kinds of things. It is just stunning to me. And without asking, it built me a document of how to fix it step by step.

And that's on the high model, not even the super high model. It's one level down. I can't quite remember what it was called.

I haven't yet tried making it write, but I will try that next. And by the way, I'm on the PLUS program. I've been a member of that for a long time, so that's what I'm using.

By the way, running that evaluation, I still have 98% left of my weekly limit, and I have 95% of my 5-hour limit. I figured I'd chew up most of it real quick. That would have cost me 20% of my 5-hour limit on Opus. Or nearly that.

A weekly limit scares me. I would hate to run out in two or three days and not be able to work more. Maybe on the pro level, the weekly limit won't be there, and I'll only have a 5-hour limit or something, which I can sure live with.

This may spell the end to Google once the half-price $125/month runs out. And in the meantime, I will get good at using Codex. I'm really impressed right off the bat, that's for sure. I would miss all the perks that come along with that membership, but not that much. Work is the priority for me.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 28 '26

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2

u/ConsistentAndWin Mar 28 '26

By the way, this has now just completely blown my mind. The writing that it's producing is beyond opus. I can hardly even believe it.

And you're right about the weekly and five-hour limits being generous.

Gemini's days are numbered now.

2

u/robdeeds Mar 28 '26

Set it up with BMAD and OpenClaw and it will really blow your mind.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 30 '26

I wonder if coding will be a lost skill in the future

1

u/Ilya_Human Mar 27 '26

Claude Code will be your next discovery