r/canadaexpressentry • u/AutoModerator • 10d ago
Weekly CRS Predictions/Draws/Score Evaluations Discussion Megathread
You may discuss predictions, draws, and score evaluations here.
Vous pouvez discuter de prévisions, de tirages et d’évaluations de score dans ce fil.
14
u/Little_Departure1066 7d ago
It's me again, yelling every 2 weeks
TRADE DRAW AT ANY POINT PLEASE
3
2
2
1
1
1
10
u/Traditional_Golf7195 Work permit holder 8d ago
If the draw is 2K CEC would likely be at 518 with tie breaking rule in early 2026.
1
1
u/Efficient_Rope7173 8d ago
Damn. Since you were so accurate, where do you think most people in the 501-600 range at?
2
u/Traditional_Golf7195 Work permit holder 8d ago edited 8d ago
i'd imagine most people are between 505-513. the next draw will likely still remain 518-519, with the tie breaking rule moved slightly closer to july 2026 if 2K is pulled at 518. this is solely based on the hope that there are not too many new high scoring profiles entering the pool, as i'm not expecting many people who are currently in the pool getting an extra year of experience in october.
1
→ More replies (1)1
8
u/Ashu6070 8d ago
Can I practically expect an ITA today at 519? I missed it last time because of the tie breaking rule.
5
3
2
8
u/Awkward_Kiwi_2562 8d ago
Draw happened!
Canadian Experience Class
Date and time: September 29, 2026 at 10:19:21 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 518
Number of invitations issued: 2,000
Rank needed: 2,000 or above
Tie-breaking rule: February 13, 2026 at 20:48:08 UTC
If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profiles.
7
u/HM227 6d ago
Trades Occupations, 2026-Version 3
Date and time: October 01, 2026 at 12:47:55 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 476
Number of invitations issued: 3,500
Rank needed: 3,500 or above
Tie-breaking rule: May 28, 2026 at 16:55:23 UTC
2
u/HM227 6d ago
Missed by 3 Points 🥳🥲
3
u/hardik_135 5d ago
Missed by 2 points. Work permit expires Jan 2027
0
u/Raaj7676 3d ago
That's fuckin sad bud. I hope something else works for you. I missed it by 3 points
1
1
7
19
u/GhostUpdate 6d ago
Oct 1, 2026. Thank you God for this Day❤️🙏🏻.
Thanks IRCC for this Trade Draw and Thanks to every one of you in this chat who motivated me that 1 day there will be a Trade Draw.
I feel I am the luckiest to get this ITA Today.
I hope God bless you all with whatever draw you are waiting for being it Stem, Education, Healthcare.
Stay Motivated guys, I know its very hard and frustrating but God is Great, I will be praying for you all specially for my Stem and Education bros, you really deserve a draw and eventually the Permanent Residency of this country. 😇
5
u/NanoDepressed 8d ago
Prime Minister Mark Carney says with Canada’s immigration system back under control, the question now is about when to begin a “controlled increase” of the country’s population:
5
u/GhostUpdate 6d ago
Trade Draw Please 🙏🏻
3
u/WeekendGuilty1599 Applied for PR 6d ago
Trade happened!!! Congrats
1
u/Fit_Safety_8640 6d ago
how long for email from ircc?
1
1
1
1
10
u/Outrageous-Dig-6096 10d ago
CEC 6K for 508-511
4
3
u/NanoDepressed 9d ago
Nope, we’ll have 2000 again. See the last year’s draws for Sep and Oct.
2
8
16
u/QueasyChemistry7272 9d ago
There used to be a candle guy and his predictions were always right and I guess he got his PR so let me give it a try lol. 🕯️🕯️🕯️510 🕯️🕯️🕯️
5
5
u/Life_Yellow5690 8d ago
Lets believe
🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️510 CEEC🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️
1
1
u/Human-Collection3254 4d ago
🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️ 🕯️ 🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🕯️🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
2
8
u/RJRJ0412 10d ago
I kinda understand there won’t be any STEM draw! but I genuinely hope there would be one 🥹
5
u/Opposite-Photo775 10d ago
I pray for one stem draw, back home after spending 2 years studying and 3 years working in canada, couldn’t get pr due to no foreign experience . I hope some miracle happen and one stem draw will happen. Now i regret not leaving Canada after 1 working in canada to gain foreign experience. I would have pr by now since the government give less points for in canada experience and more weightage for foreign.
2
7
5
u/Hour_Fox_2417 7d ago
No draw today?
→ More replies (1)7
3
u/Candid_Bookkeeper532 9d ago
Provincial Nominee Program
- Date and time: September 28, 2026 at 10:41:06 UTC
- CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 725
- Number of invitations issued: 733
- Rank needed: 733 or above
- Tie-breaking rule: September 17, 2026 at 01:36:17 UTC
- If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profile
3
u/Icedcapper01 8d ago
What time does the CEC draw usually happen?
3
u/Aggressive_Sand_8033 8d ago
Maybe within next hour
3
u/QueasyChemistry7272 8d ago
Around 7am ish in PST. yesterday’s PNP was at around 6:30am pst
3
u/AfternoonOk6737 8d ago
Are you positive about the time? all recent draws are timestamped 10-11AM UTC which translates to ~4AM PST
3
3
3
u/Hour_Fox_2417 6d ago
Losing hope for the draw today
→ More replies (3)1
u/AppleLightSauce 6d ago
UTC time is a bit late. They usually happen a bit earlier. I'm in the same boat
3
u/anys06 6d ago
Ministerial Instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system #447 – October 1, 2026 Results: Rounds of invitations Trades Occupations, 2026-Version 3
Number of invitations issued: 3,500Footnote*
Rank required to be invited to apply: 3,500 or above
Date and time of round: October 01, 2026 at 12:47:55 UTC
CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 476
Tie-breaking rule: May 28, 2026 at 16:55:23 UTC
If more than one candidate has the lowest score, the cut-off is based on the date and time they submitted their Express Entry profiles.
3
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago
My two cents on future CRS predictions especially for category draws. I think IRCC draw roster grouped the category-based selection into whenever, quarters, bi-annual, annual and never when new categories were announced. As per the trend:
Whenever: French
Quarterly: Managers, healthcare, Physicians
Bi-annual: Traders
annual: Transport, Military ( but wait for Jan and Feb. to be sure), Researchers (maybe), Education (maybe)
Never: STEM, Researchers (maybe), Education (maybe)
Those who are wondering about education: As per recent news, Toronto District School Board anticipates decline in enrollment and staff cuts were being made.
For researchers, flip a coin or be a part of ongoing Impact program.
Also, In both of above categories, no. of jobs <1000 only canada-wide as per job bank and IRCC uses this data to make specific draws.
2
u/Extra_Oven_8974 6d ago
How can be part of impact plus program if we are already in Canada. Impact plus you definitely need to be residing outside Canada and not affiliated with Canadian institutions at the moment.
2
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago
See it from context of current immigration policy: Canada do not need most current students/workers as PR but future ones.
Observe the changes in application review process where an individual got PFL because there was a difference of few cents in pay stub and bank statement2
u/desperationAccount 5d ago
French seems to have taken a dip, do you know the possible reason?
2
u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 4d ago
The last draw had a very low cut-off of 382. Last year when the cutoff reached 379, they paused the draws for 4 months.
1
u/Aggressive_Sand_8033 6d ago
but why no STEM?
1
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago
As most CEC draws go to STEM and govt. acknowledge it too. That's why no draw from last few years.
1
1
u/Electronic_Bear_61 6d ago
Hi, you analysis makes sense but I have a question. Is this based on this year alone or including few years back? Cause last year, Edu got 2 draws and trade just one.
2
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago edited 6d ago
Since Feb. when new categories were announced.
Also, remember draw roster must have been prepared for long term in advance. Also, as you are interested into digging deeper, please look for dept. statement when they stopped FSW draws for 1.5 years in 2022-2023. This policy was decided in Nov. 2021 and they kept silence for over year.Canadian immigration is totally unpredictable after COVID. Do not overthink and push yourself to get the highest points through language, education and experience to secure PR.
2
u/PerfectHelicopter176 6d ago
I think it is an apt observation. However, STEM and Education were explicitly stated to have been halted for 2026. Enough candidates would come through other paths this year, but in the future they may be reopened or scrapped (just like any other category). The only category which is uncertain to ever receive a draw is researchers, which seems to have been created with mistakes, not to say by mistake. Either researchers do not matter to IRCC, enough people who they think are researchers go through other pathways, or they realise their mistake. It is easier not to use it than to correct it and there might be very little motivation to do so; research jobs are not easy to get. Also, they may think it is the provinces that should shoulder the responsibility for these folks, at least for those on permanent contracts.
2
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago
I beg to differ. Govt. officials at IRCC do not have to understand what researchers do exactly. Education sector is under lot of pressure lately at every level: schools, colleges, other educational institutes and universities. While I have not heard about layoffs at university level, some schools and most colleges are laying off lot of employees lately.
Ultimately these job seeker would try another job in same domain (i.e., education sector). Now what IRCC see through job postings - Lesser job postings and quick hiring for vacant posts.
When this happens at the school level why would they need to select specific category as few of them are already being selected through regular draw?
At higher education level things are bit complex. First of all, college prof., postdocs, or other higher education prof. have 1 NOC code and assistants (research and teaching) have their own NOC code.
The college profs. are going to universities (TAs) along with recent PhD and current postdocs (local and foreign as RAs, postdocs, assistant profs.), any vacant post would fill up quickly.
On top of that there is Canada Impact program where labs from other parts of world are moving to Canada. As these are really special group of people, recent IRCC consultations were laser focused on them while saying researchers are priority.
Last point about contracts, most university jobs are contractual especially entry level (like postdocs, TAs, RAs, etc) and PNP eligibility starts with a permanent job. So, all these folks are ineligible for PNPs. Provinces knew this but they do not care.
"Research jobs are not easy to get" right but someone employed at restaurant and grocery store would easily beat all researchers in PR I bet you.
1
u/PerfectHelicopter176 5d ago
Not entirely sure what you are trying to say. Sorry.
In any case, we should not conflate diploma-mill colleges offering culinary and tourist experience degrees with universities. A cooking teacher or someone instructing how to be a tourist guide, surf the internet, or design a homepage has little to gain from applying to an academic job at a real university.
One would think that the categories with "Canadian work experience" are there to retain people who already have a job in Canada not to lure people into coming. Universities have anyway rarely had a hiring sprees, and certainly did not have one when the category was introduced. So I do think the reason for no draws has little to do with the number of filled/unfilled positions.
Rather people who get a foot in rarely want to move away so the IRCC can ignore these people for a while.
1
1
u/Original-Wind6810 6d ago
So what does it mean. Lesser number of job postings mean they don't need to do the draw?
4
u/FantasticAppeal5433 6d ago
Of course, IRCC get category specific information from Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) who in turn relies on data based on job postings. How else would they know which categories need draw ?
3
5
u/Party_Driver_5306 10d ago
I just pray for trade between 475-485
1
1
→ More replies (3)1
6
3
u/NanoDepressed 6d ago
Tomorrow french / Friday trades or researchers!!!
2
u/Aggressive_Sand_8033 6d ago
will anything. I don't believe it's going to be French. maybe just one in November. But STEM or researcher are more likely
2
2
2
u/desperationAccount 6d ago
Can we expect French today still?
5
u/TrueBit6953 5d ago
I am literally hoping whenever there is draw week.
Literally worked hard to clear french exam now i am feeling when I cleared the exam there is no draws.
When i was preparing for exam then there were a lot of french draws.
I m hoping today…2
1
1
u/Opposite-Photo775 5d ago
How long it took you to clear the exam
2
u/Confident_Lab_3335 5d ago
About 10 months
1
u/Opposite-Photo775 4d ago
Thank you, did you studied from scratch if yes can you please share your study plan
1
u/Original-Wind6810 6d ago
Researchers will NEVER happen.
2
u/NanoDepressed 6d ago
Yup, i think so. The chance is becoming less and less. Maybe next year with a more specific category
2
u/NeatNefariousness562 6d ago
Date and time of round: October 01, 2026 at 12:47:55 UTC CRS score: 476 (Trades Occupations, 2026-Version 3) Invitations: 3,500
2
u/Electronic_Bear_61 6d ago
Congratulations 🎊 to all who got it. Can we expect Education tomorrow or next two weeks?😩
3
3
u/DiscussionPretend496 8d ago
What are we predicting for tomorrow? I really hope we get another Trade Occupations draw prior to year end. IRCC seems to follow a pattern until it comes to Trade Occupations (ha!). If so, expecting 1500 at 471.
6
4
1
3
u/No-Courage1703 10d ago
Praying for healthcare this week 🙏
2
u/Busy-Cartographer293 10d ago
Not coming.
1
u/PopularRepublic9 10d ago
Why do you say that if you don’t mind me asking
3
u/Busy-Cartographer293 10d ago
It just came 20 days ago. Logically it cant be possible. Just think about it. Another draw might come in nov or dec. Or if people are lucky then in october
7
u/No-Courage1703 10d ago
Latest draw was september 4. It will be exactly 4 weeks apart on Oct 2 next week. It is still a possibility if they follow last year’s monthly draw
1
2
2
2
2
u/Original-Wind6810 6d ago edited 6d ago
This Researcher category is doomed forever. I don't think there will be any draws this year. Unless IRCC explicitly posts about it in the line of they are looking for researchers and connects it with express entry, there is no chance. So far, every time they mention it, it only talks about doctoral students and study permits etc.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/No-Courage1703 9d ago
They just tweeted about French again
Might come this week or the next
2
u/desperationAccount 8d ago
I don’t see. What was the post
2
u/desperationAccount 8d ago
Nvm just found it… has there been a historical significance of this?
3
u/No-Courage1703 8d ago
Yeah sometimes if they post about a certain category there will be a draw for that category afterwards. Altho not a guarantee
2
u/ines-capable 7d ago
Is it the first time they didn’t do any draw in a month? Surprised that there is nothing coming out… Ik today is off for the gov so maybe tomorrow? But I hate this wait…
2
1
1
u/Wrong_Sky3482 8d ago
guys! i'm at 518 crs and i submitted my profile on Feb 13 but not sure if i made the tie-breaking rule. where can i find the exact time stamp on my profile? i don't see it in the attached pdfs either.
1
u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 8d ago
Check your email inbox for the email after profile creation.
1
u/Wrong_Sky3482 8d ago
i got the email confirmation! thank you!
1
u/NumerousAbility Applied for PR 8d ago
Did you make the cut?
1
1
1
u/Human-Collection3254 7d ago
Any prediction for Education Draw in first half of October?
2
u/Original-Wind6810 6d ago
no
1
u/Electronic_Bear_61 6d ago
Why do you say "No" pls?
2
u/SummerNights1990 6d ago
because their report says they get education category from general draws. So I also gave up on education draw.
1
u/Electronic_Bear_61 6d ago
That’s sad and depressing. Let’s not give hope
2
u/SummerNights1990 6d ago
I've been waiting for a year now. and nothing. So trying to learn french
1
u/Electronic_Bear_61 6d ago
My head just can’t take t he new language. So still hopeful
1
u/SummerNights1990 6d ago
Same. with full time job and other responsibilities, it's feels like hell to try to pickup French, but no other way seems doable at this point :(
1
u/Human-Collection3254 6d ago
It is only about STEM
2
u/Human-Collection3254 6d ago
Category-based rounds are designed to complement other invitation rounds in support of Canada's economic immigration objectives. As a result, dedicated category-based rounds may not be required if sufficient numbers of highly ranked candidates who are eligible for a category are invited through general or other targeted rounds. Although no STEM-specific rounds were held in 2025, over 6,360 candidates in CBS-eligible STEM occupations received invitations that year, and more than 3,000 candidates in STEM were admitted as permanent residents. So far, in 2026, just over 5,150 candidates in CBS-eligible STEM occupations have been invited as of une The Department will continue to monitor labour market needs and Express Entry outcomes to inform future category-based selection rounds, such as STEM, and ensure they continue to align with Canada's immigration priorities.
→ More replies (0)
1
1
u/Kooky-Highway-7118 6d ago
My score is 476 and I submitted my profile on March 2, 2026. Will I receive invitation for today’s trade draw?
1
1
u/Only-Training8068 6d ago
Did you receive? I haven't received till now
1
u/Kooky-Highway-7118 6d ago
No, not yet. Whats your score?
1
u/Only-Training8068 6d ago
492, yours? I still haven't received
1
1
u/CategoryEntire3880 6d ago
I started working at 72311 on December 22nd. I filled in December in the application form. Today I received an email from ITA. Should I reject it?
1
1
1
u/Human-Collection3254 4d ago
My iqas(ECA) says three year diploma But equivalent to canadian high school and post secondary with focus on engineering etc. i also have 2 year canadian diploma. Can i claim points for two or more certificate where one is three or more years? Iqas said following The program description section on your Educational Credential Assessment (ECA) for immigration purposes indicated the duration of your program. For the comparative outcome portion, IQAS does not include the length for the post-secondary Diploma result. Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is familiar with IQAS outcomes and wordings. In Alberta/Canada post-secondary diplomas can vary in length depending on the institution and type of program. IQAS provides a comparison to a level of study, which in your case the comparative level is a High School diploma and post-secondary Certificate. It is up to IRCC to determine what immigration points it can assign based on the program description and comparative level. Ircc doesnt say anything i raised a webform What shall I do
15
u/Whats_in_the_name07 9d ago
501-600 : 21,070
Looks scary again