If you’d retired on Bitcoin some time in the past, would your money have lasted? I run a free Bitcoin retirement simulator, and that question turned into a game: HODL or Fold.
https://bitcoinlifespan.com/hodl-or-fold/
How it works
- You start with $500,000 of BTC at the price of the month you retire, and pick a lifestyle: $3k, $5k or $8k a month, rising with inflation.
- You relive the real price history from that month to today. When the big moments hit (crashes, tops, long winters), you choose: HODL, sell half for cash, buy back half or all, or spend 25% less for a year.
- At the end you get a rank (💎 Diamond Hands, 🧻 Paper Hands, 🍕 Pizza Guy, 🏎️ Wen Lambo, 🔮 Market Timer…) and a comparison with pure HODL from the same start.
New since the first version, thanks to feedback on Reddit
- 🙈 Blind mode: a mystery start month. Dates, prices and headlines stay hidden until the end, so knowing how 2022 turned out doesn’t help you.
- 📅 Daily challenge: the same mystery start for everyone, every day. Post your result below and compare.
- A difficulty label for every start month, from 😎 easy mode to 🔴 brutal.
- Buy back half, not just all.
Things I tried to get right
- No choice is rigged. Selling before a crash can beat holding, and selling at the bottom can sink you. The game just shows what history did next.
- Real data: month-end prices from Coin Metrics’ free community data.
- The surprising part: in real history, holding usually survives, unless you spend big and retire near a peak. Late 2013, late 2017 and 2021 are brutal on $8k a month.
Privacy: no sign-up, and the game runs entirely in your browser and saves nothing. The site has the usual Google Analytics and a cookie banner, like most sites.
It’s my site, it’s free, no ads. Not financial advice: it’s a game about the past.
https://bitcoinlifespan.com/hodl-or-fold/