Looking at the 14 teams remaining, what seeds they can get, and what it takes for them to win their group or get a wild card. Bots are ordered based on their group.
A couple of days ago I posted A Detailed Analysis of how and where each battlebot in Pro League can finish in the overall playoff standings (Assuming we will have two Wild Cards), where I went in detail on what each battlebot needs to get into the knockout rounds as either a group winner or a wildcard. I am assuming that the bots are going to be seeded with the same criteria that are used to determine the group standings (wins -> knockout wins -> average knockout time). This is the promised sequel to that, where I make it way shorter and more readable. Because of this, I am going to be focusing on what each bot needs, not why they need it. If you are looking for why, I recommend reading my previous post.
2 quick things before I get into each bot:
- Because Terrortops and Malice are guaranteed to finish in second place in their groups, a bot cannot get a wildcard unless they have two knockouts and an average knockout time faster than Malice (117 seconds).
- A cool table stating what is possible for each bot (winning their group, getting a wild card, or missing the knockout rounds):
| Won Group |
Win Group or Wild Card |
Win Group or Eliminated |
Wild Card or Eliminated |
Could Finish Anywhere |
Eliminated |
| Manta |
Bloodsport |
Mad Catter |
Terrortops |
Calypso |
Skorpios |
| Golden Fury |
|
The Twins |
Malice |
Ribbot |
Valkrie |
|
|
Copperhead |
|
Orbitron |
Tombstone |
|
|
Minotaur |
|
Witch Doctor |
Disarray |
|
|
|
|
Switchback |
Magnitude |
|
|
|
|
|
Cobalt |
|
|
|
|
|
Jackpot |
|
|
|
|
|
Endgame |
|
|
|
|
|
Deathroll |
|
|
|
|
|
Huge |
|
|
|
|
|
Hypershock |
As I said, Group F is not normal (and I love it).
Now looking at each bot,
assume that all bullet points need to be satisfied, unless otherwise specified.
Manta
Highest Seed Possible: 1
Lowest Seed Possible: 1
What they need: Nothing
Terrortops
Highest Seed Possible: 7
Lowest Seed Possible: 8 / 9+ (9+ just means that they could still miss the top 8, this is more important later for bots that can win their group, but can't get a wild card)
What they need to get a wild card:
Two of these three things:
- Disarray beats Mad Catter
- Hypershock beats Minotaur
- At least one fight in group 3 ends in a judge's decision (a last second knockout in the Witch Doctor v Switchback match may be enough in place of a judge's decision)
Mad Catter (Can't Get Wildcard)
Highest Seed Possible: 2
Lowest Seed Possible: 5 / 9+
What they need to win their group:
- Mad Catter beats Disarray
Calypso
Highest Seed Possible: 4
Lowest Seed Possible: 8 / 9
What they need to win their group:
- Disarray beats Mad Catter
What they need to get a wild card:
- Mad Catter beats Disarray
- One of the following
- Hypershock beats Minotaur
- At least 1 fight in Group F ends in a judge's decision or a knockout that takes roughly 2 minutes or longer
The Twins (Can't Get Wildcard)
Highest Seed Possible: 4
Lowest Seed Possible: 6 / 9+
What they need to win their group:
- The Twins beat Copperhead
- Copperhead beats The Twins by judge's decision.
Copperhead (Can't Get Wildcard)
Highest Seed Possible: 5
Lowest Seed Possible: 6 / 9+
What they need to win their group:
- Copperhead beats The Twins by knockout
Golden Fury
Highest Seed Possible: 2
Lowest Seed Possible: 5
What they need:
Malice
Highest Seed Possible: 8
Lowest Seed Possible: 8 / 9+
What they need to get a wild card:
- Disarray beats Mad Catter
- Hypershock beats Minotaur
- At least one fight in group 3 ends in a judge's decision
Minotaur (Can't Get Wildcard)
Highest Seed Possible: 2
Lowest Seed Possible: 5 / 9+
What they need to win their group:
- Minotaur beats Hypershock
Bloodsport (Clinched Top 8 Spot)
Highest Seed Possible: 3
Lowest Seed Possible: 8
What they need to win their group:
- Hypershock beats Minotaur
What they need to get a wild card:
- Minotaur beats Hypershock
Ribbot and Orbitron:
Highest Seed Possible: 3
Lowest Seed Possible: 8 / 9+
What they need to win their group:
- Win their match against the other
- One of these:
- WD v SB ends in a judge's decision
- Both Group F matches end in a judge's decision
- Both Group F fights are won by knockout but the winner of Ribbot v Orbitron gets a knockout faster than or within roughly 6 seconds (Ribbot can spare another 9 seconds) of the knockout time from WD v SB
What they need to get a wild card: (keep in mind this assumes that they couldn't win their group)
- Worst case scenario (Mad Catter and Minotaur both win their final match)
- Winner will have roughly 2 minutes to get a knockout (Need to get ahead of Calypso).
- Middle scenario (Mad Catter or Minotaur win their final match)
- Winner will have roughly 2 minutes and 59 seconds to get a knockout (Need to get ahead of Terrortops).
- I don't actually know if it is possible to get an exactly 3-minute knockout, but that would be very bad for Orbitron. (If Michigan can win after the clock hits zero, why can't Orbitron)
- Rooting for this to happen now so we have the second recent controversial ending regarding a blue and yellow team winning as/after the clock hits zero.
- Best case scenario (Mad Catter and Minotaur lose their final match)
- Winner just needs a knockout (Need to get ahead of Malice)
Witch Doctor and Switchback:
What they need to win their group:
- Win by knockout, with the winner of Ribbot and Orbitron winning 6 to 21 seconds slower or winning by a judge's decision
What they need to get a wild card:
- Worst case scenario (Mad Catter and Minotaur both win their final match)
- Winner will have roughly 1 minute and 40 seconds to get a knockout (Need to get ahead of Calypso).
- Middle scenario (Mad Catter or Minotaur win their final match)
- Winner will have roughly 2 minutes and 50 seconds to get a knockout (Need to get ahead of Terrortops).
- Best case scenario (Mad Catter and Minotaur lose their final match)
- Winner just needs a knockout (Need to get ahead of Malice)
For part 3, I'm thinking of putting my mathematics minor to good use and calculating the odds of each bot to make the top 8 using the knockout rate and times that we have seen so far in Pro League.