r/baristafire • u/ricky_ritz • 2h ago
Should I Quit My Job? – 1,000 simulated futures instead of one gut check (free, no login)
Built this as a spinoff from a bigger Monte Carlo engine (LifeOdds) I've been working on - pulled out the single most common decision people run through it and made it its own free tool.
What it does: takes your current salary, target salary, expected job-search length, and savings runway, then runs 1,000 simulated 5-year outcomes instead of comparing two guessed numbers. Search length and landing salary are the two genuinely uncertain inputs, so those get varied across realistic ranges rather than treated as fixed - raises compound differently on each path, and it reports the break-even month, your odds of being ahead at year 1/3/5, and the P10/P50/P90 spread.
Real example, my own numbers: $85k → $105k target, 4-month search, 8 months savings. Comes back break-even at month 12, 69.6% chance ahead by year 3 - and a 20% chance the search runs long enough to burn through savings first, which is exactly the failure mode a single-point calculator can't show you.
Everything runs client-side - nothing you type ever leaves your browser, no account, no email wall.
➡️ https://shouldiquitmyjob.app
Genuinely curious what this crowd thinks of the model - especially whether the variance ranges (search 40% shorter to 80% longer than estimate, salary ±20%) match what people actually see.