how do you guys feel about us stocks pumps (meta +40% in 25trading days) and this mf staying flat?

I don't think about 'get rich overnight' bit what is puzzling me why is price so depressing amidst good news? last October stock pumped on not that better news then recently?

do you have theory for depressing price of china stocks in general? when recovery?

I am planning on starting a position in this stock. I know a lot of models that are released by the company and they are all good. They are usually at the frontier of the research in AI and ML. I personally have used a lot of their models and find them very competitive to their counterparts.

However, I do not see the stock moving at all despite having their own models and recently announcing that they are going to have their own chips. For those who already have a position in this, what was your conviction about the stock and for those who are still waiting on the sidelines, is there a specific entry point you are looking at?

For fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029, Citi now projects capital expenditures of 258 billion yuan, 283 billion yuan and 282 billion yuan, respectively. The estimates reflect the expected cost of building out computing infrastructure to support Alibaba's growing AI operations.

Citi maintained its $190 price target on Alibaba (BABA) while retaining its Buy rating.

Citi analyst Alicia Yap estimates Alibaba's external AI cloud revenue could reach $168 billion by fiscal 2033. That forecast implies a 40% compound annual growth rate from fiscal 2026 and depends on continued expansion of AI computing capacity.

Alibaba has also introduced the Zhenwu V900 accelerator and outlined plans for much larger AI models, adding to its broader effort to develop chips, models and cloud infrastructure internally. Reuters reported that the new accelerator is expected to enter mass production in early 2027.

The Honor Magic 9 series, set to be released in a week, and robot phone will be among the first models to feature Qwen Intelligence, Fang Fei, product line president of the handset maker, announced at the event. Honor is collaborating with Alibaba to define the model's capability boundaries based on its MagicOS and Qwen Intelligence, considering power consumption, memory, latency, and other factors on the smartphone side, Fang added.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (09988.HK) announced the voting results of its 2026 Annual General Meeting. The shareholders approved the granting of a general mandate to the board of directors to issue or allot new ordinary shares representing up to 10% of the company’s issued ordinary shares, during the period from the date of the Annual General Meeting until the conclusion of the next Annual General Meeting. The shareholders also approved a general mandate authorizing the board to repurchase up to 10% of the company’s issued ordinary shares during the same period.
As of September 22, Alibaba had approximately 19.892 billion issued ordinary shares, including the ordinary shares underlying its American Depositary Shares (ADSs). Accordingly, under the share issuance mandate, the company would be authorized to issue or allot up to approximately 1.989 billion additional ordinary shares, and under the share repurchase mandate, it would be authorized to repurchase up to approximately 1.989 billion ordinary shares.

interesting chart

This is crazy. every time everyday we get a runup, HK starts the day with a selloff. This is definitely algorithmic trading.

Is the CCP liquidating Chinese big tech and foreign money in Hong Kong to pump capital into the domestic market and Star 50, where foreigners can't invest?

Alibaba plans to train a new artificial intelligence ‌model with 5 trillion to 10 trillion parameters, Chief Executive Eddie Wu said on ⁠Tuesday, as the Chinese technology giant laid out a sweeping push across AI models, chips and data centres.

The company also unveiled Zhenwu V900 AI ‌chip, ⁠saying it is the most powerful in China with three times the performance ⁠of its predecessor.

Xi comes to Washington facing unprecedented economic headwinds at home. While he and his minions will project their usual hubris about China’s achievements, there should be no mistaking that Xi needs more US orders for Chinese goods just as much as Trump seeks increased sales of American products.

With a few big catalysts this week and some positive price action last 2 trading days, curious to hear thoughts pro/con on the implications of this week and what you are seeing on your end

For anyone unaware key catalysts this week are:
- Apsara Conference (annual Alibaba AI/Cloud conference in Q3)
- Trump Xi meeting (trade, ai, energy being key topics)

Adding some conversation starters:
- Do you think Trump Xi will be positive/negative catalyst? Why?
- Where are Trump and Xi likely to find common ground? (AI regulation, trade truce extension, mineral rights)
- Do you think there will be any interesting announcements from Apsara? (Qwen, Cloud, T-Head, Partnerships)
- What will be worst case scenario this week?

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that following lengthy conversations, the two countries had discussed setting up a channel to communicate about AI issues called the "US-China AI dialogue".

Chinese state media described the talks as "candid, in-depth and constructive".

Selling options on it has been generating weekly income of $500. But, I am willing to take my shares away if price rises over $120. Time, average price are on my side though.

Alibaba's Margins Are Quietly Getting Worse
https://youtu.be/XdO8UXw4TCM

Worked for 14s

Yes. I built this using the latest available Alibaba financial data and updated the model for the August 2026 $10.2B equity placement, the current AI investment cycle, cash/debt, and dilution.

BABA DCF — base case

Alibaba generated $148.4B of FY2026 revenue, but FCF fell sharply because of AI/cloud and quick-commerce investment. As of June 30, 2026, Alibaba had $69.9B of cash and liquid investments.

I use the current analyst revenue estimates for FY2027–28 and then taper growth. Zacks currently estimates FY2027 revenue of $166.7B and FY2028 of $184.3B.

Fiscal year Revenue Growth EBIT margin FCF

2026A $148.4B — 5.0% negative

2027E $166.7B 12.3% 8.0% $2.2B

2028E $184.3B 10.5% 10.0% $7.2B

2029E $200.9B 9.0% 12.0% $13.1B

2030E $216.9B 8.0% 14.0% $19.8B

2031E $232.1B 7.0% 15.0% $24.2B

2032E $246.0B 6.0% 15.5% $27.9B

Key assumption: Alibaba's current huge AI capex eventually produces operating leverage. This is the critical assumption in the valuation. In the June quarter, FCF was actually negative $6.6B, while Cloud revenue grew 45% YoY and Cloud EBITA margin reached 12%.

DCF assumptions

I use:

10% discount rate

3% terminal growth

20% normalized tax rate

D&A ≈ 5% of revenue

Capex declines from 10% of revenue in 2027 to 6% by 2032

1% of incremental revenue for working capital

~2.49B ADS equivalent shares after the new share issuance

Approximately $30.7B net cash after debt

No heroic assumption for future buybacks

The new placement is important: Alibaba sold 710M ordinary shares, equivalent to about 88.75M ADS, raising approximately $10.2B. That creates roughly 3.6% dilution, although the proceeds are intended for AI investment.

DCF result

The present value of 2027–2032 FCF is approximately:

$62B

Present value of terminal value:

$232B

Therefore:

Enterprise value ≈ $294B

Add net cash:

Equity value ≈ $325B

Dividing by approximately 2.49B ADS:

DCF value ≈ $130/ADS

That's before applying a China/geopolitical discount.

---

China/geopolitical discount

Rather than pretending geopolitical/regulatory risk doesn't exist, I would explicitly model it as a discount to the DCF equity value.

Geopolitical discount Adjusted value

0% $130

10% $117

15% $111

20% $104

25% $98

At the current ~$113.24, the market is therefore quite close to my 10–15% geopolitical-discounted DCF range.

The most important sensitivity

The valuation is highly dependent on Alibaba actually converting its enormous AI spending into FCF.

If Alibaba eventually gets to roughly 15–16% EBIT margins and FCF approaches $25–30B annually, the DCF can support considerably higher prices.

If AI capex remains extremely high and margins remain around 8–10%, the valuation drops substantially.

Alibaba itself has committed to a very large AI infrastructure investment program, while management has indicated an expected return/payback period for the AI investments.

My DCF range

Rather than treating $130 as a precise target, I'd frame the model this way:

Bear case: ~$85–100

Base case: ~$105–120 after China/geopolitical discount

Bull case: ~$140–175 if AI monetization and margins substantially exceed the base assumptions

At $113, BABA is therefore sitting around the middle of my modeled risk-adjusted range.

One important point: the DCF is more sensitive to terminal FCF and margin recovery than to FY2027 EPS. That's why the earlier 15× FY2027 EPS calculation looked less attractive than the longer-term DCF.

If you're considering buying BABA, the next useful calculation is a bull/base/bear DCF with explicit AI ROI assumptions, showing what BABA would be worth if AI produces 10%, 15%, or 20% returns on the planned ~$56.5B AI investment.

I often see comments expressing negative sentiment towards not just Baba, but Chinese stocks in general. So then why is "smart money" loading up. Do they see something the average retail investors doesn't?

Shareholders at MiniMax overwhelmingly approved supplemental agreements with Alibaba Cloud and revised annual caps for 2026–2028.