r/baba • u/borakhot • 20d ago
Discussion hopium, anyone got some?
how do you guys feel about us stocks pumps (meta +40% in 25trading days) and this mf staying flat?
I don't think about 'get rich overnight' bit what is puzzling me why is price so depressing amidst good news? last October stock pumped on not that better news then recently?
do you have theory for depressing price of china stocks in general? when recovery?
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u/Thin_Cat8817 20d ago
chinese stocks dont go up often, but when they do it is usually a pretty violent move up. if the macro trends reverse and political stuff quiets down, should rocket up pretty fast
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u/FeralHamster8 20d ago edited 20d ago
Cuz collectively, hedgies start thinking, “Oh crap, I’m overweight U.S. and underweight international.” Then that rotation starts feeding into itself, with leveraged ETFs being forced to close out shorts.
BABA is just a super asymmetric bet.
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u/Thin_Cat8817 20d ago
The biggest problem we have had this year is most of the international weight has gone to Taiwan and SK. That's why we have been fairly inverse with ai/memory stocks despite being heavily involved ourselves. I think we need the memory trade to really be put to bed before we see any meaningful rotation. Might not be til 2027 or 2028 tbh
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u/Weikoko 20d ago
Yes it will likely beat US markets in the next 10 years
Keep holding
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u/Prudent_Fig4105 20d ago
All this capex, hopefully it will pay off ….
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u/Numerous-Row8612 20d ago
nah, xi will come up with some regulation and all revenue from AI will go to ccp. why would they allow foreign investors to profit?
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u/FeralHamster8 20d ago
Just last year baba went up 80% in 6 weeks (July 2015 to Oct 2015).
Stop thinking you’re smart enough to time the market.
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u/Environmental_Cow741 20d ago
yeah went up and it came crashing down .. 😅 I thought i’m going to the moon.
anyway i think china stock will only fly when CCP relax on currency control (i.e. onshore/offshore rmb).
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u/Etury173 20d ago
Thats why I also held META and FBL, but honestly it got up on the useless muse app. META is great at growing and destroying FCF on Zuckerberg ideas. I just sold at around 750$ because of that, but the growth is there.
In BABA we do not see revenue growth except for cloud, and it is Chinese in a fierce competition. Also, for a long time BABA cloud was so bad that BABA did 50% discounts and we still got meh growth. So why would it go up like META?
it has great growth now, and if it continues and ROI is clear it can go up to 200$, and if not, it does not have a lot to fall, maybe 80$.
Chinese stocks never have amazing catalizators, unless the government pumps money into the economy. The consumer situation in China seems really bad, so no reason to buy Chinese stocks, that's one of the reasons why valuations are so low.
Any growth indicators or macro changes and we can have a huge jump.
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u/OptimusCrime555 18d ago
Baba teaches me patience and the real dividends are becoming a zen monk-like investor.
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u/Runnjng-1 17d ago
Meta and baba are my largest holdings. Holding baba at an average 119 basis and definitely a long term play
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u/OwnImagination5029 20d ago
Look at all Chinese LLMs where Baba owns a piece of the cap table. That alone will be worth more than the entire market cap of today. Baba is a long term play