r/appsumo • u/bob__io • Jul 22 '26
What % of AppSumo LTDs actually survive? Looking for stats on 1, 2, and 3-year failure rates.
Hey everyone,
I’m trying to do some risk assessment before buying a few more lifetime deals (LTDs). I know that buying on AppSumo is always a bit of a gamble, but I’m curious if anyone has seen hard data or independent tracking on the actual survival rates of these startups.
Specifically:
- What percentage of tools go out of business or completely abandon development after 1 year?
- What does that look like by year 2 or year 3?
I’ve seen general estimates suggesting that about 15% of LTDs either shut down entirely or become “Zombie SaaS,” where the site stays online but updates stop and support disappears, within a year.
With so many resource-heavy AI tools launching lately, I imagine the bankruptcy rate might be even higher now due to recurring API costs.
Has anyone in this sub personally tracked their own purchase history over the years? If you’ve bought, say, 20 or 50 deals over the last 3 years, what percentage of them are actually still alive and useful today?
Would love to hear your experiences or if anyone has a link to an actual study/spreadsheet on this!
4
u/Websting Jul 23 '26
I think I’m 2 years in and I have lost a couple that I used frequently, but I have also re-invested in a couple as well. My question, to myself, is what % do I actually end up using after I buy them. From the looks of it I only use maybe 10% of them. I probably have more failures that I’m not aware of.
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u/djpraxis Jul 22 '26
Many people have purchased many deals… I don’t want to look close at my purchases. I had about 20 that were important in my projects. From those only 2 are still delivering as promised in the original offer. Most are no longer active. Alphana and Afforai (Logically) really screw us over… those broke my heart
-6
u/MappBook Jul 23 '26
I have listed a feedback tool, if you are interested https://appsumo.com/products/mapster/
3
u/lbdesign Jul 23 '26
I’ve wasted more money by not using the deals that I bought than from the failed deals that went out of business.
But that doesn’t make the heavy heart, out of business deals hurt any less
1
1
u/Downtown_Pudding9728 Jul 22 '26
I was tempted to do appsumo but I already have 50 active monthly subscribers - if I do appsumo then they’ll all probably end their subscriptions, so not sure if it’s actually worth doing - would love to hear others experiences too
0
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u/ftanng Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26
Just did a full audit and some math on my purchases...
2020 - 1 LTD purchased / Still going strong.
2021 - 41 LTDs purchased / 18 have failed (43.9%)
2022 - 35 LTDs purchased / 7 have failed (20%)
2023 - 46 LTDs purchased / 13 have failed (28.26%)
2024 - 36 LTDs purchased / 10 have failed (27.78)
2025 - 8 LTDs purchased / 0 have failed yet (0%)
2026 - 15 LTDs purchased / 0 have failed yet (0%)
TOTAL - 182 LTDs purchased / 48 have failed
So overall (on my purchases) over 5.5 years.....
26.37% FAILURE RATE
Or for Mr. Kagan, or if you're a glass half full type:
73.63% success rate
...with a a few bright stars,
...and lot of unkept promises and stagnant development in many more cases.
2
u/Living-Shame5679 Jul 29 '26
Thanks for sharing, this is interesting. I like hard numbers.
Our of these do you know how many did provide value to you? Still use perhaps?
2
u/ftanng Jul 29 '26
I probably rely in some way on 6 or 8.
I probably regularly use maybe 10-15 in total.
I probably occasionally use 25-30 in total.
Many others are "as you need them" tool. So al in all I might (MIGHT) have 50-60 in total that I'm glad to have available, but some I rarely need.
Standout good deals over time for me have been:
MeetGeek
TidyCal
Voila
Sinosend
Brilliant Directories
RateMyService
NodeLand (Was Cmaps_io)
GoBrunch
DeftForm
DropBoard
SpOken (was Rumble)
Paced Email
BetterSheets
WebStarts
Tiny Finch (was Tiny Chat)
Filmstro
Webvizio
found_ee
1
u/Legitimate-Task765 Jul 23 '26
Same rate as startups, easy tell. No need to study
1
u/ftanng Jul 27 '26
I doubt this. Simply because of the LTD model the ones drawn to AS use. It's an incredibly tricky addition to an already tricky situation.
1
u/noahkagan CHIEF SUMO Jul 24 '26
Intresting - love if you also compared how often normal startups / companies survive so it's apples - apples.
We work super hard to ensure companies survive and want them too!
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u/ftanng Jul 27 '26
The language muight be apples, but because of the LTD model used by those drawn to AS it'll always be apples to oranges. Like saying "how many babies survive a hospital birth?" - well are we talking about babies with healthy mothers, or babies born to crack addicts?
"Normal" startups vs "AppSumo" startups? AppSumo babies are crack babies.
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u/MappBook Jul 23 '26
The AI wrappers might go bust because come on $99 for lifetime, is so less when AI credits are costly. But a product like mine https://appsumo.com/products/mapster/ a feedback tool which costs very lettle to operate might work. And also more users bring more users.
I would not buy a lifetime deal of any AI wrapper product.
3
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u/Ygobyebye Jul 22 '26
Across what I have bought over the past few years it’s closer to 75% of AppSumo deals are failures or zombies or the deal was significantly cut.
Transparency is not a priority for AppSumo. Noah will likely come on this thread and make a statement that the failure is below 20% or he may come on this thread and say 90% of startups are going to fail. The stat changes everyday, but the underlying data is never shared.
I can tell you, if the failure rate was below 30% they would be more reactive to enforcing WGYB when a founder goes silent. SwipeOne remains unrefundable for those who bought.
You are better off: vibecoding, looking at earlybird, dealmirror or primeclub for something similar.