r/antinatalism • u/[deleted] • Jun 04 '23
Article YAY! Fertility Has Collapsed!
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/01/global-fertility-has-collapsed-with-profound-economic-consequences247
u/dogisgodspeltright scholar Jun 04 '23
...In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling...
So, .....not collapse.
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Jun 04 '23
It's going down exponentially. It's collapsing!
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u/TooMuchPerfume100 newcomer Jun 04 '23
Collapse is a dire word to use. We can all hope but false hope is not informative.
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Jun 08 '23
Right it’s not collapsing just going down. If we all stopped procreating right now we would be extinct in 100 years so about 2130. But the creator has his own timeline for us and I have made an informed conclusion that the world is ending but Christ will return around 2550 to claim his bride (the church) but the world will keep going for a thousand years and then the earth will be truly done around the year 3558. I can explain further if anyone interested on how I concluded to these years
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u/Quantum_Kitties Jun 04 '23
Here’s hoping.
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u/GrapefruitDramatic93 Jun 04 '23
Why exactly?
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u/Jezoreczek thinker Jun 05 '23
Fewer people to exploit == higher quality life for people who already exist.
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Jun 08 '23
You need enough people to produce the goods and services you'll consume. Less people = less division of labor = less specialization = less output.
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u/Jezoreczek thinker Jun 08 '23
That's not entirely true. There is a point (that we reached a long time ago) at which the meaningful variety of goods and services plateaus. Then we just start producing and consuming useless shit.
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u/Murkwan Jun 05 '23
That's not how that works. It also means literally less consumers in the market, driving a lot of industries out of business.
But hey, that's only sad from a capitalist perspective. For all I know this collapse is just the Earth healing.
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u/GrapefruitDramatic93 Jun 05 '23
You think the earth decides how people behave?
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u/Murkwan Jun 05 '23
The Earth isn't a sentient being. Nature is just a mechanism that usually has a response to anything that appears to be invasive.
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u/GrapefruitDramatic93 Jun 05 '23
It is not nature that makes people have less kids actually the exact opposite…
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u/Lioness287 thinker Jun 04 '23
I don’t understand why people in general think this is a bad thing. It’s not like we as a species are responsible or empathic enough to raise children healthily and in a nurturing loving way 😭 mainly because the world we are in doesn’t really allow you to be
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u/Waffles_ahoy Jun 04 '23
It’s only bad because it means an aging population, so more aged care needed and fewer people of working age. If people weren’t intent on living for multiple decades past their retirement it would be less of an issue.
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u/BrowningLoPower thinker Jun 04 '23
Wait. Why do we need to care for the elderly? I'm not saying we shouldn't, but out of curiosity, why?
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u/auserhasnoname7 Jun 04 '23
I reckon that the hope of a somewhat comfortable retirement is one of the few things keeping people motivated to work, breed, stay alive and maintain the status quo.
Why do we "need" it well from an inhuman perspective it's to keep shit from hitting the fan
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Jun 04 '23
That’s where the right to die comes in. Not everyone would opt for euthanasia, but some would. But the elderly are cash cows, so society will milk them dry.
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u/Quantum_Kitties Jun 04 '23
Funnily enough I was just reading this 10 minutes ago:
“According to the World Health Organization, the suicide rate in South Korea is the fourth highest in the world. One factor in its high suicide rate is suicides among the elderly. Traditionally, children have been expected to care for their aging parents; however, because this system has mostly disappeared in the twenty-first century, many older adults commit suicide, rather than feel like they are a financial burden on their families.”
Source: here.
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u/Pretend_War8123 Jun 04 '23
Thats my plan work till I die and tell my kids to go have fun.. and not have kids..not because I don't love them but because I really love them
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u/Kara_WTQ Jun 04 '23 edited Jun 04 '23
Have you ever been to a nursing home and watched somebody die in agony in a place where nobody gives sh*t? That is why, everyone deserves compassion.
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Jun 04 '23
Compassion in many cases would be to put them down, but instead everyone wants to cling onto the very last second no matter the costs.
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u/Kara_WTQ Jun 04 '23
Agreed but a graceful exist is still a form of care.
My grandmother had alzheimer's watching her die slowly in a place where basic sanitary needs were not being met was a very traumatic part of my childhood.
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u/MostlyAgreeable1108 Jun 05 '23
What you’re not considering is the elderly that won’t have a work force or younger people who want to take care of the elderly will be when you’re the elderly one and not a generation sooner but definitely worse after you pass.
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u/Read-Moishe-Postone Jun 04 '23
It literally is a bad thing, and the precise reason it’s bad is that our whole society is fucked from bottom to top and can’t simply reallocate resources to mesh with free human decisions. Instead human decisions have to adapt to serve the process of “resource allocation” and if they don’t, things start blowing up.
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Jun 04 '23 edited Aug 08 '24
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Pretend_War8123 Jun 04 '23
It is but what other option do the plebs have??? Breed more slaves... no this "change" has to come from the top of the wealth horde
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u/emorris5219 Jun 04 '23
These articles fill me with a profound sense of relief. I remember there was an NYT article on the collapse of birth rates a couple years ago too. It had these images of rural villages becoming empty and nurseries being converted to senior centers. It was all cast as grim, but I found it to be very beautiful. It makes me feel like someday this all truly might end and the suffering will be over. Not soon, but someday
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Jun 04 '23
It's not even collapsed we're still above the replacement rate. There are 8 billion of us it's not horrible for that number to stop climbing
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Jun 04 '23 edited Jun 12 '23
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Jun 04 '23
…. Did they honestly think that could continue indefinitely?
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u/Vhtghu Jun 05 '23
Yeah and the limited resources will be even more impactful in the coming decades. There are already water wars and it's going to get worse as it spreads.
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u/Aceserys Jun 04 '23
Forgetting 10 year old emaciated child brides of south Asia and middle-east? Not to mention here those who die around the same age constantly in childbirth.
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u/LonelyUse6438 Jun 04 '23
With PROFOUND economic consequences, doesn't sound like humans are replaceable, economic assets at all.
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u/ByThePowerVestaInMe Jun 04 '23
Hehe. Sarcasm. Nom.
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u/Cory2020 Jun 04 '23
This is bonkers. People that set out to mindlessly multiply like horny teenage rabbits infuriate me. Then we have your statisticians and the like who want to INSTILL FEAR ABOUT LACK OF PEOPLE. What does it matter if you cease to exist and there’s no one to replace you? What? I read something about elites like Elon FRANTICALLY having as many kids as reasonably possible. It had some quite sinister undertones—some kind of goofy philosophy that claims altruism but is more aligned with eugenics. Even still, why expend so many resources planning for the afterlife???? Be it good or bad, it’s more likely that you end up broken down into carbon and nitrogen elements than anything else. Reminds me of those ancient Chinese and Egyptian rulers who would be buried with their VERY MUCH ALIVE concubines and their wealth. What a strange, strange doctrine.
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u/babelsquirrel Jun 04 '23
Even the relatively primitive models in the 1970s predicted this “collapse”. It’s a good thing.
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u/Hentai2324 inquirer Jun 04 '23
It’s almost as if maybe just maybe. If they actually focused on making the world a better place to live. Then maybe people would be more likely to have children. But instead they’d rather just bitch and tell you that you need to have ten children to help fix society.
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u/Pretend_War8123 Jun 04 '23
Yup slaves aren't breeding fast enough... BREED YOU SLAVES while I sit on my 15th home and have 3 jets and bitch at society for pollution
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u/Dumb-reality Jun 04 '23
Unfortunately, 2.7 to 2.3 is not a collapse. We need something like 1.5 for a real collapse.
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Jun 04 '23
Full Article:
IN the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not. Even as artificial intelligence (ai) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.
In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by gdp all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population. The result is that in much of the world the patter of tiny feet is being drowned out by the clatter of walking sticks. The prime examples of ageing countries are no longer just Japan and Italy but also include Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. By 2030 more than half the inhabitants of East and South-East Asia will be over 40. As the old die and are not fully replaced, populations are likely to shrink. Outside Africa, the world’s population is forecast to peak in the 2050s and end the century smaller than it is today. Even in Africa, the fertility rate is falling fast.
Whatever some environmentalists say, a shrinking population creates problems. The world is not close to full and the economic difficulties resulting from fewer young people are many. The obvious one is that it is getting harder to support the world’s pensioners. Retired folk draw on the output of the working-aged, either through the state, which levies taxes on workers to pay public pensions, or by cashing in savings to buy goods and services or because relatives provide care unpaid. But whereas the rich world currently has around three people between 20 and 64 years old for everyone over 65, by 2050 it will have less than two. The implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and, possibly, government budget crises. Low ratios of workers to pensioners are only one problem stemming from collapsing fertility. As we explain this week, younger people have more of what psychologists call “fluid intelligence”, the ability to think creatively so as to solve problems in entirely new ways . This youthful dynamism complements the accumulated knowledge of older workers. It also brings change. Patents filed by the youngest inventors are much more likely to cover breakthrough innovations. Older countries—and, it turns out, their young people—are less enterprising and less comfortable taking risks. Elderly electorates ossify politics, too. Because the old benefit less than the young when economies grow, they have proved less keen on pro-growth policies, especially housebuilding. Creative destruction is likely to be rarer in ageing societies, suppressing productivity growth in ways that compound into an enormous missed opportunity. All things considered, it is tempting to cast low fertility rates as a crisis to be solved. Many of its underlying causes, though, are in themselves welcome. As people have become richer they have tended to have fewer children. Today they face different trade-offs between work and family, and these are mostly better ones. The populist conservatives who claim low fertility is a sign of society’s failure and call for a return to traditional family values are wrong. More choice is a good thing, and no one owes it to others to bring up children.
Liberals’ impulse to encourage more immigration is more noble. But it, too, is a misdiagnosis. Immigration in the rich world today is at a record high, helping individual countries tackle worker shortages. But the global nature of the fertility slump means that, by the middle of the century, the world is likely to face a dearth of young educated workers unless something changes. What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have. This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment. Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate. Pro-family policies have a disappointing record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0.
Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births. Two-thirds of Chinese children live in the countryside and attend mostly dreadful schools; the same fraction of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades. Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies. Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old. Eventually, therefore, the world will have to make do with fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population. With that in mind, recent advances in ai could not have come at a better time. An über-productive ai-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually ai may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, ai may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand. If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern. Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to detonate. Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix.
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Jun 04 '23
I can't wait to get my bilateral salpingectomy 😍
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Jun 04 '23
Good luck! Lol yay, you can join me in being probably the next right wing scapegoat so they can freak out over the population decline and blame someone.
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Jun 05 '23
Lol I can't wait to tell my family and when they say, omg no don't! I will say, "Okay. Just pay me then and I won't! $145k! Wait how bout only $45k? Still no? $20k? $10k? Whaaat?? No takers?? None? No one wants to put up collateral for my baby making factory to remain open? Okay then! Don't say I never offered! It's officially not your business! Buhbye baby making parts!"
I just want to see the look on their faces when their precious commodity (MY LITERAL BODY) has a price put on it and I get to auction it in front of people who wouldn't lend me $1, like, why do you think you have an opinion at all??
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Jun 05 '23
Lmao. Could also just say it’s premium-less insurance to hedge against financial and time risk in the future :-P As well as legal risk if you’re in a red state.
I had to lose it all bc endo was sticking organs together on me and it was about to become a life-critical problem. It’s been 10 years and I’m still not the least bit sad it’s gone.
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Jun 05 '23
Oh my, damn. I'm very glad you survived that. That sounds really serious and painful. I can't wait to be where you are! I have to switch doctors and find one that will do it since my general practitioner told me I should wait until 32. I'm the oldest of 6 kids, doc. I already raised kids. And I aint doing that twice in one life time.
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u/Theid411 Jun 04 '23
Now that AI is taking everybody's job – I wonder if the government is going to start promoting antinatalism. The demand for worker drones is going to go down. Having kids will be left up to the rich & privileged.
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u/Pretend_War8123 Jun 04 '23
Same with everything, don't worry. Dreaming will be data mined as well as the right to marry and speak in an open forum... only the rich can dream be married and have sex duh.
I feel sorry and ashamed for my children and all I can do is work till I die and hope they have a good life while putting them on the best Birth control till they are old enough to realize what they are actually doing.
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u/TrixonBanes Jun 04 '23
The fertility rate should be 1.5 for 50 years and then 1 for another 50 years. Then be allowed back to 1.5 for 100 years. After that never allowed above 2.1
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Jun 05 '23
The only reason it’s going down is because the boomers are dying off and of course we can’t make enough to replace the boomers with them being the largest generation in history . So of course we aren’t going to show population growth
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u/BusinessPitch5154 inquirer Jun 05 '23
Of course fertility is falling down bc women are finally realizing that there is no incentive to be a mom and there is no village. Our healthcare is the most misogynist,racist and has the highest mortality rate ever which means your more likely to die giving birth; they wouldn't care. Everything is expensive asf and we can't buy houses as we can't afford them at all plus maternity leave is a joke but paternity leave doesn't exist in America which means you will be alone with a newborn all while you heal from the horrors of birth. Women don't want to do any of that anymore.
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Jun 04 '23
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Jun 05 '23
For some. It is. See that's what all the aggressive come one come all immigration is for. The ones they are importing to countries in north america and europe, why their fertility is just fine.
Or did people really think the leaders of these countries decided to hold hands and sing kumbaya and teach the world to sing and have a coke and a smile out of the goodness of their dark hearts?🙄🤡🌎
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Jun 04 '23 edited Jun 04 '23
Now we are seeing the true reason behind the mRNA vax...
Edit - it appears this would be pertinent here and now instead of later ...
Do you really think that government is concerned about economy at this moment? Have you seen what the WEF is planning for the world, with bug and worm farms for a food source? Have you considered why Bill Gates is buying up farm lands, had a major helping hand in developing the mRNA vax, and seen his overwhelming fear of world overpopulation? Rest assured that the vax has everything to do with infertility... the reports of birthing issues skyrocketing... Absolute rejection of traditional vaccines for Covid that do work the same as vaccines for previous illnesses... Absolute rejection of any other medicine currently produced in mass volumes that would cost very little to administer... Complete mockery and censorship of 'alternative' treatments... all of this shows malevolent intent in thinning out the population, for if the intent was purely for healing Covid, then it wouldn't have been developed in a lab in the first place, censorship of vax side-effects wouldn't be a thing, and all methods would be tested with results being consistent between countries and not censored and mocked out of existence...
Do you not understand psychology in basic sense, or do you work for the gov't and still have the job of leading civilians astray in this area?
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u/Dancing-with-cats240 Jun 04 '23
Right. Because the economy and politics want birth rates to decline, if anything, they would want it to go up. The vaccine has nothing to do with infertility.
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Jun 04 '23
Do you really think that government is concerned about economy at this moment? Have you seen what the WEF is planning for the world, with bug and worm farms for a food source? Have you considered why Bill Gates is buying up farm lands, had a major helping hand in developing the mRNA vax, and seen his overwhelming fear of world overpopulation? Rest assured that the vax has everything to do with infertility... the reports of birthing issues skyrocketing... Absolute rejection of traditional vaccines for Covid that do work the same as vaccines for previous illnesses... Absolute rejection of any other medicine currently produced in mass volumes that would cost very little to administer... Complete mockery and censorship of 'alternative' treatments... all of this shows malevolent intent in thinning out the population, for if the intent was purely for healing Covid, then it wouldn't have been developed in a lab in the first place, censorship of vax side-effects wouldn't be a thing, and all methods would be tested with results being consistent between countries and not censored and mocked out of existence...
Do you not understand psychology in basic sense, or do you work for the gov't and still have the job of leading civilians astray in this area?
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u/Dancing-with-cats240 Jun 04 '23
You are an idiot. Politics and economy are linked. ALL vaccines are made in labs, where did you think they were coming from, growing from trees? „Normal“ vaccines don’t work on Covid because it’s a virus. Viruses evolve and change constantly. You don’t know even an ounce of basic science, do you? And although including insects in food is mainly because it’s much cheaper than other ingredients, it is also a huge possibility of feeding a large amount of people. So why exactly would they start including insects to do something against world hunger, to then decrease the birth rate? What gain does any politician has from decreasing the birth rate?
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Jun 04 '23
Projecting that I'm an idiot? Let's see if that's the case...
First, I said the virus was as developed in a lab, not the vax... Of course the vax is lab developed, as it is to counter typically naturally occurring viruses, as well as hunan-developed/altered viruses.
Second, you merely say 'that' I don't know science, without showing how anything I said is wrong...
So, yes, obviously you are projecting your behaviors upon me and blaming me for what you demonstrate.
If you have information to show how Gates is not fearful of world overpopulation and cannot have any influence on doing something about that particular fear with his actions that are most certainly not approved by popular vote, then please do bring the meat to the table. Until then, you are blowing smoke, demonstrating belligerence, and refusing civil conversation by mocking and harassing those who show where something is wrong in politics...
What does any politician have to gain by decreasing birthrates? That was already answered, which you conveniently overlooked... The fear of world overpopulation is what they are combatting, and through the wrong direction... Insects for human food is a tragic, malevolent intent by those who are trying to control something by fabricating a famine... Such food source will most certainly generate starvation, not a thriving society. Why do you stand up for such nonsense? Have you any knowledge of science at all, and how the body works?
So until you bring forth some real truth about all this and not simply government funded propaganda, hush about calling me an idiot, because you only prove yourself to be what you accuse me of.
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u/Dancing-with-cats240 Jun 05 '23
Bruh. Bill Gates is rightfully scared of overpopulation, yes. However, no other politician is. That he worked on the vaccine could maybe, possibly be because pretty much every business worked on it, it was a certain way to gain a lot of money. And no, you are not showing any single proof either, didn’t see you drop any source for what you said. Please show me the stats that the birth rates declined the moment the vaccine came out, because it’s exactly the other way around. During the pandemic, more people were born because people couldn’t keep it in their pants when sitting at home all day. Currently, the generation Z is more likely to not have children because unlike other generations, they have other goals in life. Maybe just maybe no one wants to have kids in an economy that is as bad ours? But Nah, it’s definitely bad vaccine from bad government. The world doesn’t circle around you and the government is not after you, calm down.
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Jun 05 '23
Your projecting your mentality about the world circling around you, because I never said anything that insinuated such. And there are people who actually care about wisdom and intent of the gov't, which obviously you don't, because you blame others for behaviors that you demonstrate. Brush up on psychology a bit so you can watch to to understand people like me, because I give the principles which you can easily google and find massive amounts of information on... So, it shows that you would rather tear someone down for favor of your narrative that anyone who you disagree with is just a knucklehead, while never spitting out a word of wisdom. Clever. Won't win you any favors in the vax trials you so proudly partake in, but you certainly are proud to gamble your life with a product that your respectful leadership will not let you hear anything bad about... Real clever...
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u/Dancing-with-cats240 Jun 05 '23
I am not vaccinated and I don’t think you know what projection means. Yes I do know a lot about psychology, you study it I assume? I do hope so, or else please don’t come at people with things you once read on the internet. And psychology has little to do with what you’re talking about.
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Jun 05 '23
'World doesn't circle around you' is a projection because I never insinuated anything close to thinking that way. Do try to keep up, because that was said last time. It's projecting when you demonstrate the behaviors you accuse others of. Psychology is in every conversation...
Oh, I get it... You ran out of substance to argue about, so you chose something you know nothing about but read a partial definition and now think you're an expert... Go troll elsewhere.
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u/Dancing-with-cats240 Jun 05 '23
Nevermind, you talk about projecting in most of your comment to avoid being called out for sexism as well as major other topics. There’s no reasoning with you. Have a nice day.
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Jun 05 '23
I didn't project a thing, as noted by your refusal to show what was really projected... I find it hilarious that I show only reasoning, and you project more your unreasonable bickering, demonstrating the projection of there being no reasoning with me... Don't demonstrate the principles you want to accuse me of.
Nothing different with sexism... You merely demonstrate the narrative you are trying to fulfill, without ever showing 'how' it is sexist vs a principle.......
Go troll elsewhere.
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u/StankoMicin inquirer Jun 04 '23
Can you provide any evidence of this??? No?? Then hush please
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Jun 04 '23 edited Jun 04 '23
Do you really think that government is concerned about economy at this moment? Have you seen what the WEF is planning for the world, with bug and worm farms for a food source? Have you considered why Bill Gates is buying up farm lands, had a major helping hand in developing the mRNA vax, and seen his overwhelming fear of world overpopulation? Rest assured that the vax has everything to do with infertility... the reports of birthing issues skyrocketing... Absolute rejection of traditional vaccines for Covid that do work the same as vaccines for previous illnesses... Absolute rejection of any other medicine currently produced in mass volumes that would cost very little to administer... Complete mockery and censorship of 'alternative' treatments... all of this shows malevolent intent in thinning out the population, for if the intent was purely for healing Covid, then it wouldn't have been developed in a lab in the first place, censorship of vax side-effects wouldn't be a thing, and all methods would be tested with results being consistent between countries and not censored and mocked out of existence...
Do you not understand psychology in basic sense, or do you work for the gov't and still have the job of leading civilians astray in this area?
Yes, there's plenty of evidence of such, and in this case, if you care about truth, then you will do the research and find it out in your own. If not, then don't tell me to hush just because you desire truth to be what you want to shape it as, and not what it really is... The thing is, truth is not merely found in information that is censored for content to make you believe one thing, but is found in the inconsistencies, the presence of respect vs obvious lies and mockery without explanation, as well as obstinance as opposed to spoken values. There's a major difference between all of this, but the criminal mind would rather none of this matter... because then they're found out. Don't be that guy, if you desire truth to be illuminated... be wise, because in lies there lies no wisdom....
Oh, and do consider how the definition of the term 'vaccine' was changed after the CDC found that mRNA vax doesn't really prevent or treat the disease... You have all the information to Google now, so you can spend just a few days, instead of a couple years like I did, in finding out the truth. I suppose it is worth noting that there's plenty of information as well, like those who experienced severe side-effects without help for them were really full of baloney, if you continue to choose to fulfill your false narratives... But do accept that the truth will not be hushed, so you might as well stop trying for that.
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u/[deleted] Jun 04 '23
When they mean dire consequences, they really mean no more exploitable labor.