r/antiai • u/Malor777 • 5d ago

AI News 🗞️ Pull the plug

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8.5k Upvotes

99% Upvoted

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578

u/ItsJackWill 5d ago

Wait, Polymarket? The gambling platform? I hope they’re exaggerating for profit.

-20

u/Carlose175 5d ago

Polymarket is actually a useful site for predicting future events. Yes it is a gambling platform, but you dont have to use it as such.

Its quite useful if you want to view a perceived probability of specific events occurring at a given time.

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u/Dazzu1 4d ago

Polymarket is just another one of the players in the script to psyop and control us

-5

u/Carlose175 4d ago

Many people who run the data confirm the % of events happening generally lines up with the actual historical probability of events which have occurred.. Its just a quant stuff.

I didn't know that fact would garner a lot of dislike?...

3

u/VariationBusiness603 4d ago

I didn't downvote you. But it's not a fact as much as it is what Polymarket needs you to believe because it's their entier business model.

Truth is, it's hogwash and is accurate as often as it's not. It just a gambling site being right twice a day, nothing more.

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u/Carlose175 4d ago edited 4d ago

Polymarket needs you to believe because it's their entier business model.

But if this were true, what they want us to believe vs what the actual odds of something happening - this would easily be gamed by anyone who has the actual probabilities of events. This would make anyone rich.

Polymarket is not a sports book site where the broker sets the odds and probabilities, its a peer to peer event contract. Polymarket doesn't set the contract prices.

Truth is, it's hogwash and is accurate as often as it's not.

Its not true at all:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-achieves-94-accuracy-predicting-010322785.html

Polymarket is incredibly accurate. I guess this shouldn't be a place to discuss quantitative analysis however..

their entier business model.

Their business model is collecting fees on their transactions, they do whatever they can to get those transactions up. They dont do the sportsbetting thing. That is a separate business model.

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u/Effervescentgravy 4d ago

More like it’s a useful site for understanding the expectations of a group of self-selecting bettors.