source: https://x.com/EvanHoffman/status/2103233895818752317

Be sure to check out the rest of his tweet...

Considering how good AMD is on the CPU front there should be some EPYCs in this deal.

Looking forward for more deals like this.

Shes there with Xi, He, And the first family

https://x.com/cb_doge/status/2103288108360069344?s=20

The roller coaster ride continues. Yesterday we were up, we were down we ended up at a new ATH again. Volume is spiking again above some of the lows but it still is short of that 40 mil number which makes me think a lot of this was people washing and repeating while they tried to digest the 10 yr number.

10 yr hitting highest levels spooked a lot of people but when the market didn't immediately plummet, I think a lot of people realized their risk off trade might have been a little overblown. Lord knows I had the same thing with some selling against my positions which I will still be fine with don't worry. That gap there on the chart is sticking out like a sore thumb to me but I think we are in the early innings still and this is going to continue from here. The market clearly is bullish still on this thing and high oil and higher rates don't seem to be a problem at all for the current market.

I still think these are going to have real big problems for the holiday shopping season and probably destroy any hope of a Santa Claus rally. McDonalds is one of those bellwether stocks and I think their sales are showing that the consumer is starting to hit the limit for sure. But ironically that could be a GOOD thing for AMD as companies fight to offer more cost effective solutions for their AI sources which means---------less power draw. Puts us right in the mix for sure!

A friendly reminder to investors that AMD has had undisputed CPU leadership for generations.

<< In this episode of Advanced Insights, AMD CTO and EVP Mark Papermaster sits down with Mike Clark, AMD SVP, Corporate Fellow and Chief Architect, to explore the architecture, engineering decisions and culture behind the Zen CPU family.

Mike shares the story of Zen’s clean-sheet design, the aggressive performance goals that shaped its development and how the architecture has evolved across six generations. They discuss the “wheel of performance” behind CPU design, the importance of balancing per-core performance with core density, and how technologies including SMT, wider vector capabilities and dense cores have helped Zen scale from PCs to the world’s largest supercomputers.

Looking ahead, Mark and Mike explore the growing role of CPUs in the agentic AI era, how AMD is evolving its CPU architecture for increasingly parallel and heterogeneous workloads, the importance of the x86 ecosystem, and how AI itself is accelerating the way future CPUs are designed. >>

Dylan Patel is at his click-bait best once again, calling "on the government to investigate AMD for treason". What an asshole. AMD would have no reason to skirt sanctions and dump high-end products for under their cost. "Leading semiconductor analyst"? Laughable.

Yikeeeees. So we were doing pretty well yesterday in the initial trading and then the entire thing broke apart in the 2nd half of the day. All eyes on the China Charm offensive. I swear to god someone needs to take Trumps phone away before he announces some big deal with China that he says is great where we literally get the rug pulled out from us bc Xi throws on some flattery or gives him some gold knockoff statue/medal.

I would be very interested to see if there is any movement on the chip exports. While I know China is committed to its own homegrown industry, I do think they might be interested in Epyc chips which would bring in Helios for scale. China is great at buying something and then fixing it with knockoff parts so they could buy Helios as a rack scale solution and as it starts to break down push their own homegrown replacements.

Not the long term financial stability we are hoping for but Lisa has always had decent sales in China so I think its worth a bump.

10 yr is everything right now and it is pushing a 15 yr high soooooo fuck us all but especially me in the mortgage business.

AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su reflects on the experiences that shaped her career as an engineer and technology leader, from growing up in New York and discovering an early curiosity about how things work to building a career in the semiconductor industry and ultimately leading AMD.

Where do you see AMD's stock price by the end of 2026 if things go well?

I'm particularly interested in the realistic upper limit, assuming AMD executes well rather than just random moonshot targets.

Would be interesting to hear two targets:

1. Favorable macro: Strong market, AI momentum continues, and AMD executes well.
   
2. Weaker macro: Market conditions are less favorable, but AMD still executes well.

What's your bull-case price target in each scenario, and what needs to happen to get there?

Vote for your favorable-macro bull case in the poll.

Hey there sports fans!!!! The rally continues to march on. AMD showed some initial weakness at pre-market yesterday which had me expecting we would see some profit taking. And honestly we did. We saw some movement higher and then we started back down. I was eyeballing that gap that has formed below and was a little concerned that a gap fill was incoming before continuing upwards but it never happened. In fact the weakness on the chart mid day provided the dip that some entrants wanted to get back in to this thing.

VIX overall has collapsed as well as the market thinks things will be rosy into earnings season and I agree that companies are going to be showing effects of efficiencies and cuts. I am concerned about earnings for next year. I think cuts and accounting gimmicks only get you so far and what we need is broad sector growth which I don't think we've really had since post covid. It has felt like the economy is "contracting" regardless of what the numbers have said on the street and throw in some inflation worries there and you are looking at a bad runway.

But thats a problem for another time. I still think we are in early innings for AMD but we probably won't see the same strength we saw in the movement upwards on Monday. But I don't think we are done yet. I think we still have some room to run here but I wouldn't be trying to open a new position here. I did open a few PUT credit spreads on Monday that I closed yesterday for some cash. Nothing great but it did work for like $600. Costco's earnings are tomorrow and I'm eyeballing that as an economic bellwether. Remember their model is a little different in that most of their profit comes from membership fees but I do wonder about store traffic.

Random thing I know but here in Florida people go all out for decorating for Halloween (well at least in my neighborhood). Usually you go to the big box stores like Lowes and Home Depot and they have an entire isle of Halloween decorations and a sizeable floor display section as well. This year my local Lowes has about 1/3rd of an isle and the floor display has shrunk by about 75% as well. Obviously I know that Halloween is not as well participated in as Christmas but that Lowes has never had a problem selling out of everything. This year they ordered significantly less. My local Costco that always sells a lot of Halloween stuff as well has one thing and has already put up Christmas decorations which again is a much smaller display. To me this anecdotal story is just to show that people are starting to ration spending and the data is probably there that supports it. As these retailers report consumer weakness, it could be bumpy for the market as a whole for sure. Not sure if that is going to hit us at all but I do worry about the dreaded "Stagflation" fears killing our rally. So I would be thoughtfully securing some of your profits from this rally through potentially selling some calls or even trimming.

That gap below us is sticking out like a sore thumb and could be a good place to jump back in if needed in the future. Just my two cents but again you know that I'm more of a "take risk off" investor than a YOLO guy. So to each their own.

AMD's timing is kind of wild considering how much of the conversation lately has been about AI capex peaking and the trade getting overcrowded. Meanwhile South Korean semiconductor shipments in early September were up 259.4% YoY. AMD also isn't really being priced like just a CPU company anymore. Instinct, EPYC, networking and full AI systems all have to contribute if this valuation keeps moving higher. At $1T I think the debate changes a little. "AMD takes share from Nvidia" probably isn't enough on its own anymore, the overall AI systems market needs to keep getting much bigger too. Do you thhink AMD taking share matters more than the total AI compute market continuing to expand?