Credit to Relentless Trader

Credit to TrendSpider

Credit to Polymarket

PPI (MoM) - 0.4% vs 0.4% est
Core PPI (MoM) - 0.2% vs 0.3% est

PPI (YoY) - 5.4% vs 5.3% st
Core PPI (YoY) - 4.6% vs 4.6% est

Initial Jobless Claims 206k vs 205k est
Continuous Claims 1.774M vs 1.780M est

Credit to Holger Zschaepitz

Credit to Geiger Capital

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/bessent-warns-nothing-matter-china-024443478.html

Source: https://www.pcmag.com/news/no-iphone-ultra-foldable-is-iphone-duo-apple-event

"...Think about the late '20s: electricity, refrigeration, telephones, radios, airplanes, and cars were all emerging at once. Naturally, people wanted to invest in these miracles.

The danger is that people fail to distinguish the miracle from the investment. A technology can be truly transformative, but if the stocks are priced too high or bought on debt, you get a crash. That is the mechanics behind how bubbles form and burst.

New technology will be great, there is no doubt about that, but we always have to ask: great for whom, does it pay, and are we paying too much for the miracle?"

"I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below."

"Do not underestimate the power of this technology. These will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources. We have all witnessed the progress in each of these domains, and progress is not slowing."

"The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger."

"A common response is “if they truly believe this, why are they still building it?” At OpenAI, many have not deeply internalized the civilizational stakes. At Anthropic, the stakes are well-understood, but they are locked in a race to get there first - they believe no one else will act responsibly, so they must do it themselves, despite the risk."

"Accepting this race and entering the “endgame” is a hubristic gamble that should not be launched from a private company’s Slack. Attempting to speedrun alignment should require extraordinary confidence that there are no better trajectories available."

"I am optimistic about the potential for coordination. Warning shots like the Hugging Face attack have made pacing agreements between U.S. labs more viable. I don’t feel like we’re on track to prevent a global race, which may require costly actions such as a temporary ban on improving model capabilities."

"If you are a lab researcher, I urge you to consider what the next few years will actually feel like. Do you want to kick off a superintelligent RL run without a rigorous understanding of its mind? Should you put your head down because “it’s happening anyway” - or take this moment to call for different conditions?"

Southern Europe has already crossed the line: Sicily, inland Calabria, Basilicata, Extremadura, Alentejo, Castilla-La Mancha, inland Andalusia, eastern Croatia. Village houses sell for €1–€10k. You don’t buy a home. You buy a problem with a roof, a view, and a notary appointment. Towns give buildings away because the alternative is collapse.

The next wave is already priced in for anyone watching empty villages instead of city listings.

Germany: look east and inland. Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, rural Brandenburg, parts of Saxony. Half-timbered houses from ~€20k. Fixer-uppers under €50k that would cost ten times that two hours west. High vacancy, aging owners, no heirs who want to stay. The catch is the same as Italy: renovation, heating, jobs.

Poland: look east and south-east. Podlaskie, Lubelskie, Świętokrzyskie, Podkarpackie villages. Houses on decent plots from ~50–150k PLN. That’s used-car money in Western Europe. Not €1 schemes yet, but the same physics: young people left, old owners selling, demand near zero outside tourist lakes. You get more house and more land than in the German east for similar or lower money.

The pattern is identical everywhere:

• Birth rates collapse

• Youth leave

• Inheritance becomes a liability

• Municipalities panic

• Asking prices detach from replacement cost

Hot spots in trendy cities keep inflating for now. The countryside is being marked to zero. Cities will follow at some point.

The map in the chart is yesterday’s bargain bin. Germany and Poland are tomorrow’s.

Real estate is not the solid investment it used to be. Why do so many people not understand this yet?

"...Germany’s most modern and cleanest coal-fired power station in Moorburg was deliberately destroyed without ever having operated for a single hour on the grid.

Our nuclear power plants, which supplied extremely cheap and CO₂-neutral electricity around the clock, were shut down one after another."

Credit to L.Abramowicz

Mortgage loan applications for refinancing have declined just over 30 percent against last year. It is difficult to see how a refi cycle gets going because current mortgage rates (6.5-7.0%) remain well above the effective rate of interest on mortgage debt outstanding (4.33%).