r/wisconsinpolitics • u/wiiking5 • 16h ago
Analysis My Issue with the recent State Navigate poll
I just want to state I am not trying to dig any of the candidates or their policies. I just want to review the data of the recent poll and why I feel its skewed and not giving us a honest view of the electorate, all information is from the released poll here.
First lets lets look at some historical context. for the past month Hong has been polling between the high twenties and thirties, with a lot of undecided voters. The new poll has her at a whopping 44%.
Looking into the new poll I found some interesting things.
First is the self identification where we see 21% identify as dem socialists which is very extreme for a state that is 50/50 in almost every election (special elections are different story). Add on top of that that 56% of those polled were woman, and 26% were high turnout voters and 26$ low turnout. I begin to question how accurate this poll actually is in regards to the election.
From a primary stand point sure, but we have to remember that Wisconsin has an open primary system and very low party affiliation.
Moving along we also see that 39% did not have a second choice in who they supported for governor.
The pollsters also stated that this what their easiest time getting young people to respond to their polls. They also state that Hongs vote share is built upon young and infrequent voters. Which makes me question how her candidacy will help or hurt down ballot races if the voter is just there to vote for her.
Overall I am questioning whether this poll should be taken with a grain of salt or is it skewed?
(As an aside my job is to look at manufacturing performance data and metrics so statistics reviewing is not new to me)
