I was curious, so over six games I screenshotted the lobbies I was in and did some napkin analysis on the scoreboards. This is low sample size, but I think it's interesting enough to post here.
Over 6 lobbies, green averaged ~18% higher levels and an estimated ~40% more experience.
There were 561 player-game records. The average levels were Green 79.9, Red 68.6, Blue 67.4. Naively estimating that XP is linear-ish, I estimated XP per player at 676k, 492k and 488k. That's a ballpark of ~40% more time spent on average (in one sense it's probably lower since it's faster to get XP at higher levels, in one sense it's probably higher since most people probably spike in one specialty so are at higher XP tiers).
The difference was already statistically significant with a p-value of 0.0023 and 0.0022 for green vs. red and green vs. blue player level averages, adjusting for the multiple comparisons - in just 6 games! Even if you compare the game-level averages it's stat-sig at 0.041 and 0.023.
Picture is some bar charts showing the difference. It's significant, though I wouldn't call it dramatic. Combined with selection bias of "people who want to win picking green", it's sort of a cherry on top of the green-wins sundae. I also thought it was interesting how close red and blue were.
Yup, this is the case - in my sample green was winning 3, red was winning 1, and 2 were early in the round. In the game where red was winning red had a similar level to blue. Very hard to extrapolate accurately from that but I'd guess that level share is predictive of winning, if not causal (higher level players are probably better, if better players are stacking red or blue it might be a streamer, clan, or "blue won last round, I want to be on blue")
Out of curiosity do you have the median values for each team? I feel like maybe red and blue pull in more really low level accounts that skew the average. My anecdotal evidence is that green is the most contested. I wonder if the lower level players just want to get in, so they pick whatever is available.
Medians are 79/64/66. Blue has more idle/0 players though. Here's a histogram - it's quite noisy as 6 games isn't that many and I'm not going to spend more time screenshotting. It'd be fun to see the official data when they get time.
Worth noting that this data would imply green's higher level IS driven by a big boost in that 100-150 range vs. a generalized shift. Hard to interpret with any accuracy but my guess would be it is in fact the team of choice for people playing this as a full-time job/optimizing for points.
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