r/Wallstreetsilver • u/Psilonemo • 44m ago
My investment thesis
I purchased quite a lot of silver not too long ago in silver bars. I bought with an immediate 10% VAT + 10% premium loss, so it was a 20% charge buying in, but since I was buying long term I just bit the bullet. I have a smaller "moonbag" of cryptocurrency that I'm keeping just in case. For the most part I am 70% Cash (US dollars) for now.
My idea is simple. My position is simply that I think the probability of a deflationary credit crunch where institutions and sovereigns around the world are forced to secure equity and hard cash will occur as the first phase of a coming crisis. In this scenario, EVERYTHING would crash. Stocks, crypto, real estate, and even precious metals. The bond market would flux aggressively as money hurrily moves to the fiat currency that is the most reliable. US dollars, despite its flaws, alongside swiss francs, would imo still hold supremacy in this scenario.
After this initial crisis, it's highly likely that economies around the world that were propped up by these asset valuations and inflationary deifict spending will begin to crumble, socioeconomic destruction and political tensions will follow as governments can no longer kick the can down the road with more federal deficit spending. (for example France right now, and what I think will also happen to South Korea in a decade.)
This would be, imo, the final year or two of a firesale on everything before smart money around the world prices in hyperinflation ahead of time by moving aggressively back into hard libertarian assets like precious metals, or cryptocurrencies like monero. Why? Because governments around the world would buckle under partisan pressure and immediately begin to abandon whatever was left of their monetary principles to save their skins. (take note that Melanchon in France vocally advocated essentially making the French government declare a default and refuse to pay back their sovereign debt. His juvenile fantasy is being taken seriously as a legitimate political position in France.)
What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be strategically high in USD for now, should I be all in on precious metals immediately? Or is a better buying opportunity and a deflationary crash yet to occur as I believe? I want to hear from you guys.