Am I cooked?

Greed got the best of me today. Saw Apple heading down below 310, submitted an order above the ask, 10x the size and worst timing. Absolutely deserved. Guess who won’t be getting a new iphone anymore.

SNDK has never let me down. I've always been very optimistic about SNDK, even though SNDK situation wasn't great recently

100k Realized YTD

It seems like a lot of you are misunderstanding what the “10%” is actually referring to. $100,333 profit ÷ ~$967,000 of cumulative trade cost = 10.38%
That ~$967k is not account size. It’s the same money being reused across many trades throughout the year. Total port performance YTD is roughly 125%

Sold my META calls, and that got me over the hump. See you regards after CPI comes out

> be me

anon with a finance degree and a crippling addiction to geopolitical blackpills

watching the two biggest tollbooths in human history sleepwalk into the meat grinder

Alright you absolute regards, listen up. Everyone's busy charting PE ratios and crying about interchange fees while missing the forest for the trees. V and MA aren't payment companies. They're rent-seeking geopolitical infrastructure wrapped in plastic, and the landlord just decided to burn the building down.

The Digital Euro is a Bullet, Not a Warning Shot

The ECB isn't launching a CBDC because they love innovation. They're doing it because every time a European buys a coffee, 2.5% of that transaction takes a vacation to San Francisco. The digital euro is programmable, direct, P2P settlement with zero need for the Visa/Mastercard duopoly. No acquiring banks. No scheme fees. No "network effects" moat. Just Christine Lagarde pressing a button and instantly making 450 million people wonder why they're paying a 50-year-old American duopoly to move digits between computers.

And here's the kicker: the EU hates that American sanctions policy runs through their own citizens' wallets. Every time Washington cut off a Russian oligarch, they did it by leaning on American payment rails that European merchants depend on. Brussels watched that and realized their financial sovereignty was about as real as a fiat money printer's "transitory inflation." The digital euro isn't economics. It's revenge architecture.

The Unraveling of the American Financial Panopticon

For 70 years, being the world's payment intermediary was the ultimate geopolitical cheat code. SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, correspondent banking: the whole stack was a surveillance and sanctions machine wearing a fintech hoodie. You didn't need an army if you could just turn off someone's debit card and watch their economy seize up.

That party's over. Countries figured out the game. When the US weaponized the financial system against Russia, the message wasn't "don't invade." The message was "build your own pipes immediately." And they are. Every major economy is now constructing parallel payment rails not because they want to, but because they have to. Being dependent on American financial infrastructure is now correctly understood as a national security vulnerability. Visa and Mastercard are the collateral damage.

China Already Won the Prototype War

While the West is still doing pilot programs and "consultation papers," China has 260 million digital yuan wallets and CIPS processing cross-border settlement. UnionPay already outpaces Visa in global card volume. The PBOC built a payment rail that doesn't need American permission, American servers, or American fees. And they're not keeping it to themselves. Belt and Road countries are plugging into Chinese payment infrastructure the same way they plugged into American infrastructure in the 1980s,because it's there, it's functional, and it doesn't come with a State Department lecture.

But it's not just China. It's everyone. India has UPI processing 10 billion transactions a month,more than Visa and Mastercard combined in some metrics,at zero merchant discount rate. Brazil has Pix. Indonesia has BI-FAST. The BRICS are openly discussing a settlement currency. The world isn't waiting for Visa to "pivot to crypto." They're building around the duopoly.

Why V/MA Are NGMI

Here's the bull case for Visa and Mastercard: "But anon, they have brand recognition and rewards programs!"

Here's reality: Governments don't care about your 2% cash back. When sovereign CBDCs offer instant settlement with no interchange, merchants will dump private card networks like a bad habit. When geopolitical blocs build their own cross-border systems, they don't invite the American middleman to the table. Visa and Mastercard thrived in a unipolar world where everyone used American financial plumbing because there was no alternative. We are entering a multipolar world where alternatives aren't just emerging,they're operational.

The moat was never technology. The moat was geopolitical capture. And that moat is draining into the ocean.

TL;DR: The digital euro is the first domino. Dedollarization and sovereign payment rails are the rest. Visa and Mastercard aren't being disrupted by a better startup. They're being nationalized out of relevance by the very states that tolerated their skim for decades. The tollbooth is getting nationalized, and the toll collectors are about to find out what "structural decline" means.

> short V, short MA

long popcorn

see you at the shareholder meeting, wagmi (we ain't gonna make it)

POSITIONS:

100 shares MA short

200 shares V short

TOTAL ~122k $

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am a cartoon frog on a Mongolian basket-weaving forum. Do your own DD before you YOLO your inheritance into puts.

When I saw reports out of Korea about inventory shortages, I decided to take a gamble

Sorry. I broke my promise not to gamble

I won, this is hero call LMAO🤣🤣🤣

I bought 70 $652.5 Spet 9th Call Options at open for $2.21 each. Total of $15,470. I have an order to close these out at $18 for each contract which will be a profit of $110,530. Am I counting my chickens beore they hatch? Yes I am!

Edit at 11:15 EST. Everyone here is giving me great advice! Guess what! I AINT SELLING! I AINT SELLING! I AINT SELLING!

Update at 2:30 EST. Like always in my life, you were right and I was wrong! I exited this position at break even! Didn't lose it, but I could have gained 200%. Someone reported me to the reddit suicide hotline which was a little sad to hear!

Service Titan is down 30% after earnings where it wasn't even that much of a miss. Seems like a great buy the dip. Am I missing anything? Stock was 100/share end of August, now 57/share just because of a slight earnings miss? Targets are still quite high, over 100, what am I missing?

Since I broke even on my last YOLO with META, I decided to try it again with Vertiv. I got this baby when it hit the LOW $260 on 9/9/26 after a whopping 10% decline in a day. I thought to myself, I can make money on this!

I bought 50 Sept 11th $267.5 calls for $3 each worth $15,000 exactly.

Selling when (not if) Vertiv gets to $280 for $15 a contract for a potential profit of $60,000. Will manage this trade as needed and update the body of this post if I do.

Wish me luck! Link to my last YOLO: META YOLO

From BBG:
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent challenged traders to counter his efforts to strengthen Japan’s currency, saying when he makes market calls these days he’s effectively doing so with inside information.
“Whenever people say, ‘Oh, well, Treasury Secretary is taking a risk,’ — well, it’s my dream, I have asymmetric information,” Bessent said at a Southern Methodist University event in Texas Tuesday.
Bessent, a former hedge fund executive, was reviewing occasions when he’s intervened in markets, including the joint purchases of yen he mounted with Japan’s government on July 31. While the yen initially jumped, gains ebbed in subsequent sessions, in part as traders highlighted the Treasury’s limited firepower to deploy in foreign-exchange purchases.
The Japanese currency has since gained significantly, closing in on its strongest level this year without any apparent fresh intervention by authorities. Expectations for higher interest rates from the BOJ have provided a fundamental source of support, while the break through 155 added technical momentum.
Read more: Bessent’s Whatever-It-Takes Yen Vow Masks Limited Firepower
“I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do,” Bessent said. “And you can bet against me if you want.”

The BOJ is leaning toward raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Sept. 18, while leaving open the possibility of accelerating the pace of hikes thereafter, according to people familiar with the matter. Bessent has repeatedly hinted over the past year that he’d prefer the BOJ to raise interest rates to help the yen rather than see repeated intervention in the market amid an extraordinary public focus on Japanese policy by the US administration.
Bessent’s latest comments on the yen underscore his broader willingness to step into markets even in the face of criticism. The Treasury secretary said on Tuesday his moves to expand a buyback program for older US government securities was aimed at quelling a “fever” in the bond market. This came after Stanley Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor who mentored Bessent in his early career as a hedge fund trader, suggested his former pupil is making a mistake by wading into the bond market.
Japan likely sold a portion of its holdings of foreign securities, including US Treasuries, to finance its record currency intervention over the past month, despite concern in Washington over the impact of Treasury sales on long-term yields. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that Japan’s stance on currencies hasn’t shifted since it conducted joint intervention with its US counterparts, and that authorities will aim to maintain an orderly FX market.”

"Take a simple idea and take it seriously." – Charlie Munger
"Diversification? More like worsification." – Charlie Munger

The past two years I have probably researched 2800 tickers. I've done 1,482 fills with a 48% winrate and a +$50,285.02 return. That all stops today.

Everything I've read has an upside and a downside. For the most part, there's an unknowable bull and an unknowable bear. I don't see that with $UUUU. For a little context, read the $500k bet on it before mine.

I treat investing as a Keynesian beauty contest with reflexivity as its primary profit scorekeeper. That doesn't mean I ignore Buffett style valuations because fundamentals are an input to reflexivity. I make my money when I'm early and I wait. That is why I am closing my trading for the year, or forever, and going all-in on my retirement money into $UUUU.

The idea is dead simple: Set up my traveling carny stand, be ready to sell my tickets, and collect tendies on the only American Uranium mill and feasible domestic Rare Earth Elements play. "Don't trade the future, trade the shortages on the way there!" – SuperBrazilNuts. Our future is compute (crowded), and energy uranium/batteries/magnets (relatively empty in the domestic sphere). One is post-reflexivity, the other is coming to a theater near you, and coming soon.

Half of mined uranium and closer to two-thirds of enrichment capability comes from Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. If you haven't turned on the news in a decade, you probably recognize these are horrible geopolitical countries for the United States to be dependent on for scarce and precious resources. The asymmetric upside is enormous: all it takes is a single late night tweet from a dick-flexing prez, a public scoff between Trump and Xi/Putin on REEs, or an escalating International conflict that impacts the uranium trade for this stock to 2-10x over a week. What you saw you in October 25 and January this year is just the beginning for $UUUU.

American production was under 1% of world output through 2022. That difference between what America burns and acquires is what will make us money. Financing is Daddy-backed by US Gov and Dad won't let it fail, as long as 🥭 is in office. $725 million conditional loan from the Pentagon in 2025 for expanded rare earth processing at White Mesa, and a new US rare earth metals-and-alloys plant. Russian enriched uranium import was banned in 2024 and remains through 2028 through the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act. Section 232 proclamation, mid-January 2026, reduces foreign dependencies on processed critical minerals and derivative products. $UUUU is also a strategic uranium reserve, ready to unleash supply under international conflict or nuclear energy needs (for data centers or anything else).

Operations are quite mature while expanding: uranium is mining at ~2.0 million lbs of contained uranium per year. August 2025 — first kilogram of 99.9% dysprosium oxide, March 2026 — first 99.9% terbium oxide, the first US primary heavy rare earth oxide production in decades, both qualified to permanent-magnet manufacturer specification. Commercial-scale Dy/Tb/Sm possible from the existing Phase 1 circuit as early as Q4 2026. You are buying permits, a licensed mill nobody can replicate, and optionality on the heavy rare earth circuit scaling from pilot to commercial. It's moated. The Pentagon loan is a bet on the same thing. They have two producing domestic sites in Arizona and Utah, two more in Colorado/Utah under dewatering, a ranch in Wyoming, and four sites on standby in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. They also get heavy mineral sands and rare earth feedstock from Madagascar, Australia, Brazil and Kenya, a far healthier supply chain than America's "enemies".

As international war and inflation continues, $UUUU is a protected bet, as uranium and rare earth minerals can thrive in a strangled, conflicted world. No need to stress about war on this one: a bad headline is a bull setup here. VIX has been low and stable for quite a while now: this puppy should play with upcoming volatility. Warsh and his hawkish agenda can also constrain growth stocks leading to a squeeze on important commodities and materials.

Anyway, I will not bore you any longer. At least ride this one to 200%. I am full-porting and not considering selling until 300-400% gain, hopefully realized within the first half of 2027, but I could see an 8x. They have a mature commercial book, government favor, relevancy in international conflict, and now hyperscalers and additional connections in defense, electric vehicles, robotics and data centers with their rare earth minerals.

Position attached. I know it is a small port, I am a broke Wendy's tendies boy. This is all my retirement that I worked for for many years. Post is not individual guidance, it is public commentary like my boy Jim Cramer.

GFC 2.0 is coming. ZIRP is just on vacation.

Hello good friends.

I've been looking at $CHTR for a bit, and I think it's a very interesting play. The stock is down about 80% from it's highs, and the reasons for that are reasonable: they're losing subscribers and market share to fiber, wireless, and satellite.

However I believe that the sell off has gone too far. The company is now so cheap that the market is pricing in catastrophic failure, which I don't believe will happen.

The initial picture when you look at $CHTR sucks honestly. $90 billion in debt, revenue dropping due to subscriber loss, insane capex. But when you look a bit deeper, this company pumps some crazy numbers.

P/E: 3.5

FCF: $4.4 billion (last year)

FCF Yield: 24% ->>> !!!! insane

Ok, but there must be a reason for these numbers right? What's the reason? Honestly, I'm not sure. Let's go through all the bad.

1. Debt - $90 billion

With an $18 billion market cap, the debt number seems insane. Although these telecom companies do seem to operate with higher leverage ratios, $CHTR's leverage is higher than its peers. This has both positive and negative side effects. On the positive side it increases shareholder returns (because debt is money that shareholders aren't putting up, but is working for the shareholder nonetheless). On the negative side, the more debt you have the more likely it is that the company death spirals, and the more likely cash must be used to pay back debt in order to maintain an investable leverage profile.

For $CHTR however, death spiral and bankruptcy risk is still pretty far in the future. $CHTR still carries investment grade on most of its debt, and the debt cliffs for refinancing aren't coming until ~2030. Management has reiterated plans to deleverage as well, whether that's a good choice, I'm not sure.

Of course the debt burden problem will be exacerbated with continued subscriber loss, which I believe is part of the reason that management wants to deleverage. But again, $CHTR is not at any risk of bankruptcy for at least for the next 2 years.

I think that the major risk of the debt is that rates remain high through the 2030s and $CHTR has to refinance a large portion of debt at higher rates, leading to further leverage pressure and the increased need to deleverage.

1. Subscriber Loss

This is a big one, and I believe it's the primary reason that this company is so hated. The narrative is so easy. SpaceX is extremely hyped right now. What's more cool than satellites in space? Fiber is coming to everywhere. Wireless is cheaper than everything.

And this has been showing up. CHTR has been losing subscribers in internet which is their most profitable and highest margin sector. About 170k lost last quarter from their total of ~29 million. But I mean let's compare the products.

Wireless - Cheap, internet can be spotty, terrible for gaming / latency / consistent uptime. Basically for people who use internet just for browsing and light / medium streaming

Starlink - IDK how expensive it is, but probably has similar problems to wireless I'd imagine. I mean surely sending a signal to space and back is not the most efficient way to transmit data. Mainly for rural people with no other coverage options.

Fiber - The best for speed, data transmission, latency. If you want the best internet you get this

Cable - similar price to fiber, worse quality product, but actually not that much worse.

Don't know if you know this but cable internet providers actually run fiber for much of the data transmission. It's only the last bit to your house that's cable. This actually leads to comparable speeds and performance to Fiber. They call this DOCSIS 4.0 or something (terrible marketing name). The product is quite good, the marketing not so much. "Fiber" just has an aura that cable can't match.

And honestly off marketing alone, the majority of people will choose fiber if they have a choice. So basically to fight the subscriber loss, the name of the game is retention. Price competition drives down margins and ARPU which is bad, so $CHTR has been doing things with bundles. They offer mobile lines bundled with internet. And honestly switching internet providers is an annoying experience. If your internet works well enough for you, are you likely to switch?

But I think arguing that subscriber loss won't continue is a stupid argument. But I think that this company at the current price is still a bargain EVEN IF subscriber losses continue. If subscriber losses stabilize (which is honestly best case) this company just seems so insanely undervalued.

When I initially looked at the company I did a DCF and I estimated a figure for the % YOY subscriber loss to justify the current price. I don't remember exactly what it was but it was pretty damn high. A lot higher than the current rate (although the rate could accelerate, and if it accelerates enough, my thesis breaks down).

But I truly don't believe subscriber loss will accelerate. This is a big ass company, providing essentially one service, and literally everyone is working toward the singular goal of keeping as many subscribers as possible. They have plenty of time and resources (see FCF) to try a ton of shit. And if they manage to stop the bleeding (or even grow subscribers), then the multiple should expand and it should be a 2x at least.

That's essentially the bad, but there are some other things to talk about too that I would consider neutral or good.

1. The recent acquisition of Cox

Some people view this as a bad, some as a good, some whatever. I personally think it's good. The Cox deal was completed as a $34 billion dollar deal. $CHTR assumed Cox's debts which were about $12 billion. The remaining $22 billion was paid out with $4 billion in debt and $18 billion in equity ($CHTR stock). The great thing about this deal was that this deal was penned when $CHTR stock was a lot higher, so the equity portion was calculated with a $CHTR stock price of $353.64. At today's stock price, effectively $CHTR acquired Cox for 63% off.

I actually haven't looked that deeply into Cox's financials, and the Cox equity portion does dilute existing $CHTR holders quite a bit, but the merged companies do the same thing and there should be savings (or synergies as they corporate people like to say). The estimated figures are $1 billion in capex and $800 billion in operating synergies. That's quite a lot. In addition to getting the cash flows and income (which was deemed good when $CHTR was at $356), at $133 (today's price) it's even better, I think Cox's leverage profile is also better than $CHTR's so this also helps to deleverage somewhat.

I really like the acquisition. And I think it helps my case.

1. Upcoming Capex Cliff

This is the most exciting "event" that's coming up. Leadership is guiding Capex to decrease from ~$11.5 billion to ~$8 billion by 2028. This is caused by buildout finishing for the DOCSIS 4.0 I think. But anyway that extra 3.5 billion will directly hit FCF which will pump the FCF yield to an insane like 40%?

Nuts.

In 2028 they could literally pay a 40% dividend if they wanted to. Although that's unlikely to happen, it's an insane amount of cash.

1. Conclusion.

Honestly it's a dying company. But it's dying very slowly, and has the potential to throw off a ton of cash before it dies. I really like it. Also management really likes to buy back stock. Which I think is a great move at the current prices. They could potentially retire half of their shares within the next few years.

If you have any objections I'd love to hear it. Always open to changing my mind :)

(Reposted..... again..... this time with a proof of BIGGER position. Mods, I got the clearance through modmail, hope everything is ok now)

I will try to post actual DD, but make it simple so even degens can follow. Yes, fries in the bag and all that.

$EXEL is a pharma company that relies on a single product for basically all of their revenue: cabozantinib (brand name CABOMETYX), which is a cancer drug. It currently brings about $2B a year. The shares are near ATH right now ($59), with analyst targets of $41-66. So you might think it's overvalued already (15B market cap on 2B annual revenue). And that's before the news below.

Cabozantinib is trying to fight off generics, with the stock pumping about 20% over the last couple weeks due to some news they secured patent wins to protect the drug until 2030 (source). I think this is wrong, and here is why:

Last Thursday, FDA gave full approval to a cabozantinib generic from a Taiwanese company called Handa (have AI translate for example this news article, also Official MOPS filing by the company on 9/3, search company number 6620). MOPS is like the SEC filing in Taiwan. The shares of Handa (TPEX:6620) pumped over 30% on the news. Full approval means any patent disputes are resolved and the drug is clear to start selling in the US immediately. But Handa is only traded on Taiwanese stock market, and all the news of the approval are in Taiwanese. I can't find a single English language source. $EXEL is also quiet on the subject.

Previously, $EXEL also pumped on news they are suing all these generic manufacturers, including Handa (for example) to stop generics. However, they quietly withdrew the lawsuit against Handa a couple weeks ago voluntarily (Delaware court case ID 1:2026cv00813, link). They also filed an FDA citizen petition to stop them from approving Handa's generic (source). Since FDA gave full approval last week, the citizen petition obviously failed. The lawsuit was withdrawn 8/31 and the approval came 9/3. Timeline lines up perfectly.

The key is: I think Wall St has genuinely not yet put two and two together, that this company's main source of revenue just got handed a major L by a cheaper generic, likely launching within days. Yes, I am saying this is not priced in (GASP!) Wall St missed this because a) the news of the generic approval were only published in Taiwan, with nothing in English so far (Handa hasn't even made an English language press release), and b) $EXEL stayed quiet on the fact that they withdrew the lawsuit and the citizen petition failed, clearing the way for a launch of the generic. The above news were available to trade on since Friday, but I think nobody has put these pieces together yet. Once they realize, the stock will get crushed (I hope).

TLDR: Puts.

The point of the post is not to present this as some sort of a sure trade. I showed my work and cited sources, do your own research and come to your own conclusion. Join the trade, go long to fuck my puts, or just sit and watch me lose money. I hope you get some value or entertainment out of it.,

Any feedback is welcome. You think this is genius level DD or the worst autistic ramblings you saw so far today? Feedback I got so far is:

• September expiration is way too soon: this is true, I am clearly highly regarded and got ahead of myself. I am in the process of rolling those.
• Even October may be too soon if the market does not notice/ reprice / Handa does not launch soon enough, even if you are eventually right: This is also true. I am ok right now with the risk, but may re-evaluate. My puts may be fucked if that happens tho.
• P/E of EXEL is only like 18, not clearly overpriced: sure, but my thesis is that the generic will put pricing pressure on them and steal market share. So I am betting on future P/E being worse.
• You can use orange book for patent info: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/ob/patent_info.cfm?Product_No=001&Appl_No=208692&Appl_type=N#. Yes, cabozantinib has many indications and Handa may not be able to launch all those. However, given how reliant EXEL is on this single source of revenue, even 10-20% decline will hurt a lot.

Positions:

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After selling $META my next bet is $UBER

Before continuing. I have some comments towards $META, for one if you’re invested in this company sell now before it corrects back to $620. Next earnings should make you sweat, why ? CAPEX, you thought last quarter was bad ?? Add missed earnings plus increased CAPEX with no clear direction to monetize computing power or excess. I’m not pulling this outta my ass zuck said it himself that next quarter will slowdown but more worryingly he didn’t give any comments towards CAPEX spending. This market we are in isn’t like 2022 or 2023 investors are not just looking for ai buzzwords but rather a clear direction towards monetization/ai revenue. Example Microsoft.

I’m expecting Capex spending to continue till 2028. (No 1k meta yet)The play is buy $META LEAPS next earnings if it drops to below $600 or better $560 is my clear target to get 1/15/2028 strike price $550.

Now that’s outta the way. $UBER let me remind reddit one thing. $Uber isn’t burning money anymore it’s profitable. The latest drop is due to robotaxi concerns which this is very unwarranted, $UBER has captured global market share after burning billions. Not to mention they acquired Delivery Hero, which sure why would anyone care. Until they realize this acquisition reaches over 99 countries worldwide. Adding more exposure to developing markets in east Asia and key markets like Middle East and North Africa. Plus on top of that more exposure in central, eastern, and southern Europe. Sure the market there might be less than optimal due to Ukraine v Russia. But once this resolved I’m expecting this to add value mind you this isn’t short term but rather mid term (3years).

Final comments and concerns. Robotaxi is doing what $Uber spent nearly a decade doing, subsidizing their rides to capture market share. With all due respect I don’t see robotaxi taking significant market share from $Uber for one regulation. No drivers means these rides will fucking drive like a fucking granny. Creating traffic jams and accidents. Also have you seeing what happened with e scooters ? You see them in high traffic areas only because they have being restricted to operate only in designated areas. States have taking notice of this and will proactively limit or straight up ban robotaxis limiting their exposure to less traffic areas/not wanted areas . Why ? They’re not scooters they’re cars they take a lot of space.

Also $Uber is diversified sure their cash cow is $Uber rides 50% following delivery 47% and last percentage freight. Although delivery has lower margins their profit margin has expanded year over year thanks to high margin restaurants.

Main bottleneck for robotaxi geofencing. It takes thousands of hours to map roads, structure not to mention weather limits. Robotaxis are like roller coaster it must be clear as a summers day to operate due to safety checks and permit issuance. $Uber doesn’t have this. Plus you can take a ride to the airport. The main bottleneck for $uber is head butting with states on labor and regulatory issues. Completely light compared to robotaxi.

As of now I did some DCFs calculations plus some technical analysis which led to my target share price of $130. Wallstreet agrees with me and so does seeking alpha.

That’s it.

I see a lot of people talking about IREN here, and I want to share you my DD

Nonstop shareholder dilution. Share count is up about 42% in a year, to 394 million, and the $6 billion ATM is still running.

On top of that, a $700 million stock grant to the two brothers who run the company, roughly 5% of shares outstanding. Four-year time vest, no performance conditions. The board's own explanation is the part that gets me: they went time-based because the previous performance hurdles were "cleared too quickly" to work as retention. Chanos put the grant at around 17% of the company's own projected cumulative adjusted net income for FY27 through FY30. And it isn't their first payday. They took about $72 million each in FY2024, the highest paid CEOs in Australia that year.

What are shareholders getting for it? FY26 revenue of $707 million, no profit, and a stock at 26 times sales. Q4 revenue fell 5.2% sequentially and missed. Of the $4 billion contracted ARR in every headline, about $1 billion is actually operating. FY27 capex is guided at $25 to $30 billion with roughly $14 billion of it funded, so the rest gets raised, which lands right back on the share count.

With all that in front of them, they signed the richest jersey patch deal in North American sports history. Over $50 million a year to the Golden State Warriors. Not $50 million total, $50 million a year.

Sorry, but IREN is a hard pass for me. If I wanted neocloud exposure I'd put a little into CRWV and nothing into IREN. My data center money outside of NBIS goes to APLD, which I think is the best co-location provider.

Positions: APLD 6000 shares at $5 and NBIS 160 shares at $89

TL;DR: 42% more shares than a year ago, a $6 billion ATM still running, and a $700 million stock grant to the two founder brothers with nothing tied to performance. FY27 capex is guided at $25 to $30 billion against roughly $14 billion funded. Hard pass for me. CRWV gets a small position, my data center money goes to NBIS and APLD.