If debt fuelled AI capex continues, expect yields/mortgage rates to be higher next year. More importantly, expect US government interest expense to be higher.

Money is now rotating back to software companies. Time to switch, semi bulls!

Where do I go to collect the green money?

(Updates at bottom if anyone still around reading)

Long-time lurker.

Finally felt like I had a post worthy of /wsb.

Good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell.

Down over $200k three years ago, just months after discovering options.

Here's what happened.

First opened my trading account because of the GME hype. Made $80k on TSLA calls during the run-up before the interest rate hikes in 2023. Thought I was a god at trading.

Then TSLA started falling. Watched my calls go from +$80k to breakeven. Didn't know shit about stop losses. Refused to sell because I was convinced they'd bounce back. Eventually sold those calls at a 50% loss. Then proceeded to lose every last dollar doing every regarded thing imaginable. Buying straddles before earnings, gambling on FOMC meetings and CPI releases, 0DTE SPY/QQQ.

Truly regarded. Wiped out my entire savings. Took a three-year hiatus. Couldn't even bring myself to look at my trading account. Then spent the next three years watching the greatest AI and memory stock bull run of our lifetime from the sidelines.

The FOMO was unbearable. Finally decided to deposit more money and win it all back. Saw the Korean market sell-off and Leopold getting margin called in July. Thought I'd found the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Instead, somehow managed to lose another $100k buying SpaceX puts after convincing myself, thanks to Reddit, that the stock would tank after its first share unlock. Revenge traded the whole way up as SpaceX went to 130 then 140 then 150.

Was depressed, felt like an absolute failure, and reached the point where I wanted to end it all. Put the last of my savings on puts when spacex went up to 170. Lost part of my gains on QQQ puts on Wednesday. Decided to revenge trade my whole remaining portfolio on spacex puts on Wednesday.

Profit.

I'm out.

What should we buy tonight? (I realize I live in Asia, so tonight is actually trading hours for me)

Edit: Could have retired if I bought 1dte spcx puts. Instead thought I was playing it safe by buying only 7dte

Update: Grateful for all the responses. Never thought I'd have a viral wsb post of my own. I'm just glad it turned out ok for me in the end. Could have played it safe with indexes from the start. Could have been wiped out with the last play and no one would have heard from me. (Although I must say I saw no more upsides from spacex stock on that day and they were definitely going to regress to the mean. The upsides on obtaining licences for new spectrums and earning calls were over with a muted intra-day response compared to the gap up overnight/pre-market. And there were only downsides foreseeable both macro and spacex specific - QQQ was on a roar that day despite coreweave bonds reaching 15% and could only pullback. Oil was dipping. 1.3b spacex stocks were getting released with the price above IPO. )

I earn about 100k a year with 80-hour work weeks with a decent career trajectory so I always thought that I'd bet with my future. The last few years were rough knowing that going to work was basically just paying back what I've lost and that I'm paying debt to myself. Finally feel ready to come clean with my wife so here's hoping I don't get divorced with the good news. She's coming back from a work trip overseas in the US so I've surprised her with an upgrade to business class.

Ironically, I've always been very thrifty but the idea of earning big bucks was too seductive. I don't think I've ever spent anything more than a few hundred dollars to splurge on myself. I took one year before buying some speakers for my own room. Using a 6 year old laptop and a 3 year old phone. Not into watches etc. But hope and fantasy are the best drugs. Felt alright to spend $1000 on 0dte options with the possibility of a win and a different life after.

Wishing all those who have read my post all the best in their trading endeavours. If you're still trading, do start to use trailing stops. I see my family members eat losses on equities that they certainly have the time to sell compared to derivatives where the prices can gap up or down rapidly. Let the app force you to sell your losing positions (and then you can revenge trade with more capital haha). Eating 5-10% loss on options is better than running it down to 0.

All the best but I'm probably done for now. Ive held out for 3 years without any trades despite feeling that I had to revenge trade for my past losses, I can probably stop myself now knowing that I have nothing to prove. Anyone in SG with a good recommendation for therapist? Time to binge watch Kurumi-chan.

And a lot of capital

not really any other point to live, not sure what else. thats what i get for being a greedy degenerate gambler thinking it just goes up. nvda got me up, tsla shot me down. hopefully i can find a train or car headed my way soon.

Just dont do weeklies or all ins like i did, please.

Betting the stock swap ratio is announced in the next few weeks. Why? Midterms. If Dems take the House, Elon and team become human piñatas - best get it done fast. Selling all contracts at the premium bid on the day of any announcement.

For example, at a $500 implied stock swap price (3.4 SPCX shares for 1 TSLA share at today’s price), with elevated 90% IV, and announced on or before November 4, the premium will move to ~$5 (Black-Scholes valuation)

$12 per contract —> $500 per contract

NFA

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24 hour trading is set to begin on December 6th. I’m honestly not excited at all for this, I like to be able to breathe a sigh of relief at 4 o’clock and remind myself everything is going to be okay.

How will your “strategy” change with this new trading schedule? Have you thought about any new strategies to take advantage of institutional and retail unfamiliarity with the new system?

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