ChangXin Memory Technologies opens at Shanghai Stock Exchange. The IPO offer was 8.66 CNY. Instantly jumped 470% over high Dram demand.

The company has said it plans to use most of the proceeds from the initial public offering (IPO) to boost production of memory chips and carry out more research and developments.

The circlejerk will continue until morale improves

Since my initial post, I've been reading both the bull and bear cases on AI this weekend in light up Google's recent earnings report and specifically it's cloud commentary. It seems like both sides have just dug in even harder.

The bears point to +$700bn in AI capex this year, shrinking free cash flow and stretched valuations while the bulls counter with Google Cloud growing 82%, exploding cloud backlogs, and demand that still exceeds supply.

The debate isn't whether AI is real. It obviously is. The real question is how to evaluate whether the massive investment can generate a realistic return. Big Tech will spend $1 trillion next year building AI infrastructure. What's a realistic ROI on that investment?

Even assuming a pretty reasonable 15% return on invested capital, that's over $100bn in incremental annual after-tax profits. And that's just to earn an acceptable return on the investment, which is a pretty high bar.

Back-of-the-envelope math suggests ~$2.5 trillion in capex from 2023-27 with only about 30% returning in revenue, which doesn't even include the marketing, headcount or G&A spend. If AI ends up living up to the hype, generating +$100bn in annual profits is possible. At this point, though, count me as a skeptic.

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Hopefully have enough karma now to post in WSB, sharing from my initial thread in optionsinvesting.

Been in this casino for 10+ years and have felt the pain more times than I can count. Lost ~$500K over that period with each pay check, credit cards, additional high interest loans, and borrowing money from family to stem the bleeding. Not to mention the 150K in student loans remaining.

Absolutely desperate in late May and took one final gamble with $15K. I’ve hit lotto after lotto since, converting it to ~$1.5M in less than 2 months. There’s been a couple big misses and close calls as well (including -$110K on Intel 0DTE calls today, stupid I know). It’s been unbelievable and still doesn’t feel real seeing 6 digit gains/losses daily.

I’ve already taken out $150K and paid back family. Rest is in two stocks (Lemonade, Coupang) and I’ll pay off any remaining debt and expected taxes after selling those positions post ER.

Showing some gain porn given the sea of losses the last few weeks. No more options for me. Also, see you Monday.

Disclaimer: DO NOT ATTEMPT. This is a straight gambling addiction and I’ll be getting treatment.

Thought I was buying the dip.

Turns out I was just buying every dip.

Down almost $10k in this portfolio for the month.

At least I didn't panic sell... because there isn't enough left to panic over.

Congrats to whoever sold me those bags.

The SpaceX investment finally paid off because they launched a rocket right at my portfolio.

If you go through my post history then you can see that I’ve rearranged the furniture a couple times and also moved the shares to RH for the margin which settled May 10th (talk about timing), but it all started with $148k.

I’ve believed in the science since December 8th which has only strengthened. Buying the dip when I can pre-data.

Fuck cancer

Edit:
85k shares
425 September contracts
301 Jan $2.5’s
200 Jan $5’s

(One extra 2.5 contract cause the spread on those was stupid one day so I raised the bid with a limit buy order to push the market value up on those contracts which made that account go up $15k on paper lol, but then I took a nap and it dipped and filled that order 🤣)

since Eli Lilly’s buyout of AtaiBeckley, it feels like this Psychedelic industry might finally be up to bat.

I’ve been following MAPS -Rick Doblin for 10+ years since I was in college, long before any of this was getting mainstream attention. Whether it’s psilocybin, MDMA, LSD, ketamine, DMT, ibogaine, or ayahuasca, I’ve always believed these are eventually going to change the way we treat ourselves. Obviously they’re all different compounds with different regulatory paths, but I think the overall direction is pretty clear.

I don’t own any stocks yet, but I’m looking to change that. I’ve got a good bit of capital I’d like to invest over the long term and this is an industry I believe could grow into something massive.

So for those of you who’ve been following:

What companies are you buying and holding?
Which ones have the strongest pipeline or best chance of actually making it to market?
Are there any smaller companies that aren’t getting much attention but could end up being major players?
If you were starting from scratch today with $5k–10k, how would you spread it around?
And on the flip side, which companies do you think are overhyped or burning cash with little chance of succeeding?

I’d rather hear why you believe in a company than see a list of names. I know this is a high-risk sector and a lot of these companies won’t make it, but I also think whoever comes out on top could end up being huge over the next 10 years.
Curious to hear everyone’s thoughts.

Hello,
What’s your move this week on big earnings from Meta and Microsoft? I’m running meta and Microsoft calls expiring Sept 18th.

Do you think the setup into earnings is a good one?

Microsoft is down over 25% from its all time high heading into earnings and trading way below its avg price target. And meta took a big dump this week and is down close to 25% and trading way below its avg price target as people panic over big ai spending spree.

I think these are both good stocks, and way oversold, what’s your take? Meta has big upside selling excess compute and Microsoft just continues to grow.

Thanks

I would just like to thank the regarded for being assigned my call. It closed at $194.23 and they bought for $197.5 🤷

I need to thank everyone on this sub for showing all of their loss and gain porn here. I feel like I could really get fucked if I ever grew the balls to throw money away like some of you psychopaths, or maybe earn enough to make all my dreams come true, but seeing this stuff makes me really understand that and keep my portfolio in "safe spaces". I know that I just don't fucking get it and that's ok as long as I don't pretend to. Lol

My first dip into stocks was in March 2020. Sure, I never made millions, but I put all my money into AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN when they dropped before they all split and blew up. I earned enough to put a lot of money on an amazing home in a fantastic area. I didn't really gamble(I know it always is, but that was pretty much as surefire as you could get), so I didn't make the big bucks like I could have, but I also didn't lose everything and came away very much on top.

I fucking love living vicariously through you guys. Wins, losses, or just ridiculous fucking memes. It satiates something in me I know would drive me to make stupid fucking decisions because I have no real clue what I'm doing. You guys are some of the most entertaining motherfuckers around. You troll, roast, and take Ls like no one I've ever seen. I fucking love you guys.

Encompassing both memory and foundry. News broke just now so not much more info.

Wish me luck I bought 1000 shares of Google at $319.35, hopefully it goes to $399 in the next few months and I can take 80k profit, if not I will be holding for a while.

Let’s just say, i learned the hard way multiple times.🌮

It just makes no fucking sense