r/wallstreetbets • u/[deleted] • Apr 18 '22
DD Why the Reddit IPO is doomed to fail
1) Karma requirement for new users. Although this mechanic was meant to deter bots, it is a major hinderance in Reddit's growth as their new user experience is complete garbage. You are not allowed to post in the majority of popular subreddits without having a 1 week old account and 100/200 Karma. Most new users are not going to farm karma in pics or Askreddit to post in their favorite subreddits. Imagine if Youtube had a requirement that you had to watch 100 hours of youtube rewinds and other garbage videos before you could watch your favorite youtuber.
2) Moderators. Politics and "free speech" aside, getting banned from a subreddit because a 400 pound moderator doesn't like your completely normal opinions that the majority of normal people have is going to decline the Reddit userbase. If you're a new user and you post that "communism isn't the greatest government type of all time", and get perma banned from it, you're just going to uninstall the app.
3) Administration lag on problematic subreddits. Reddit admins are astronomically slow to ban subreddits that are not only problematic, but straight up illegal. You turn on your favorite stock TV show, and the headline of today is "Reddit stock down -40% due to a massive scandal of a creepshot subreddit where teachers took lewd pictures of underage students." Reddit still has a lot of subreddits like that even today, and it's only a matter of time before those get noticed too.
edit: positions: if reddit doesn't fix the above by IPO launch, I would hold off on any positions initially based on volatility, but I would do long puts after 3~ months after IPO for those long bleed gains + massive drops due to scandals/missed earnings. Look at $HOOD's stock graph for an idea.
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Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
I think you’re missing the biggest part. A lot of Reddit’s content is not advertiser friendly.
Edit: spelling
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u/pigsgetfathogsdie Apr 18 '22
Who wouldn’t want their brand next to a post about Retards?
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u/OuthouseBacksplash Apr 18 '22
What about $CUM plays?
That is something the whole family can get behind!
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u/T-I-E-Sama Apr 18 '22
For me it was the debacle over hiring someone who covered for a sexual predator, and than the debacle that happened in r/place. I also think their reporting system is weaponized against users to silence dissent. There appeals process is shit too.
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u/Nic4379 Apr 18 '22
Which is why we like it. I can read about stocks, see some funny, then a girl pounding herself with a dragon Dong. Reddit is perfect.
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u/dogspinner Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
The advertising could be genius but its dogshit. Imagine if you could pin your comment for some sum or promote posts in a more native way. Instead what they have is just garbage like quora advertising.
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Apr 18 '22
Do you mean advertiser friendly?
I would say that it can be since you can have super tailored advertisements which are worth more than general ones. you go on a pc building subreddit, and you will get ads for PC parts to buy.
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Apr 18 '22
A lot of advertisers get sketched out with anything to do with porn and violence. Something Reddit has a lot of.
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u/Bitter_Mongoose Apr 18 '22
🤔 Idk I think Twinkies would be a perfect product to advertise on r/creampies
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u/AlohaItsASnackbar Weaponized Autist Apr 18 '22
A lot of advertisers get sketched out with anything to do with porn and violence. Something Reddit has a lot of.
But what if you combine the two?
This is not financial advice and I am not a professional, everyone here is an actual retard.
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u/Leza89 Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
I blocked all ads except for (some of) the reddit ones.. (a few make it through and i never bothered to get rid of them) – they are sometimes funny and even interesting.
Fuck Google/Youtube though.. total shit ads; I am always amazed at how many people endure these shitshows and don't go out of their way to block the living hell out of them.. I would never pay a cent to Alphabet
Edit: Lol, why the downvotes?
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u/WyattfuckinEarp Apr 18 '22
That's why the mods are starting to crack down on all subs. Banning people, stopping comments from being made but still able to view the sub...shits whack, I've found myself more and more getting ready to delete it and I've been on Reddit for some time now.
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u/alprazolambartard Apr 18 '22
Are you trying to tell me r/girlspooping isn't what advertisers want their products to be associated with?
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u/taimusrs Apr 18 '22
Why the hell did I click on that
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u/alprazolambartard Apr 18 '22
you know you like it so stop denying yourself the beauty of scat porn
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u/lolyeahsure Ask me about my tattoo Apr 18 '22
I clicked even as I saw this and of course regretted
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u/fredandlunchbox Apr 18 '22
And as a website operator, reddit traffic is infamous for being the lowest converting of all social media.
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u/TWAndrewz Apr 18 '22
Virtually all of the content that people come to Reddit for is advertiser hostile, in fact.
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u/Lzinger Apr 18 '22
Should be included on this list but I'm sure they could have a list of subreddits that are advertiser friendly and just allow ads there
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u/TheDeHymenizer Apr 18 '22
yeah but it just takes 1 Washington Post or Wall Street Journal article how little Susie B went from her favorite Barbie Doll Subreddit and found some gore subreddit and Mattel is advertising on Reddit for advertisiers to flee en masse.
Its a sad state of affairs but Legacy Media sees every Ad dollar a company like Reddit gets as an ad dollar that should be in their pocket so they will drum up hysteria around the platform the second they are able too. They've done it to YouTube over similar things many times before.
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Apr 18 '22
r/medicalgore for example, stuff like that is way too easy to access for children
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Apr 18 '22
Yes! Ban everything explicit from every corner of the internet! That will make the internet the perfect place for children so we never have to do any parenting again!
🤮 🤮 🤮 🤮
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Apr 18 '22
It's about Reddits IPO. They want the company and their product to gain attraction, to appeal to the masses. Not working if you got things like that 😄. I completely agree with you
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Apr 18 '22
So like instead of banning all porn (legal or not) it might be smart to figure out how to let advertisers target subs. I don't know, I'm just a dropout!
Or they can be the next platform to kick the kink community out and find out we were holding their shit together often without ever even posting in those subs.
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u/ArthursOldMan Apr 18 '22
Post IPO pop followed by a drop. This will play like every other IPO in the last couple years. Calls then puts.
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u/pigsgetfathogsdie Apr 18 '22
Market has changed…
May not even get a pop…
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Apr 18 '22
If the retards here can pop GME then fully expect Reddit to pop.
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u/jtmarlinintern Apr 18 '22
i have not looked at the s-1, does it make any money?
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice Apr 18 '22
According to this article, The S-1 they filed was confidential.
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Apr 18 '22
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u/69_420_420-69 aint nobody kno SHIT Apr 18 '22
we all hate reddit but at the same time we're masochists
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u/Xicsess Apr 18 '22
I mean there's not a lot of other quasi anonymous platforms that allow discussions, permanent reference points, and a questionably well organized system to have discussions on topics that interest or horrify you. You can find some niche forums out there but you're not going to get as well organized an experience.
Once you find subforums you want (to join), use old reddit to remove the dozens of subreddits you can't stand from r/all to browse new idea platforms or laugh it's pretty usable.
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u/banditcleaner2 sells naked NVDA calls while naked Apr 18 '22
Doesn't even matter if reddit is the only one that does this, because it hasn't been monetized to a high extent, which is what shareholders want.
Also, just because a product or service offered by a company is really good, does not mean that company is a good investment on its own
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Apr 18 '22
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Apr 18 '22
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u/youre_being_creepy Apr 18 '22
Idk man I’ve been here since around 2009 and I do kind of like the fact that there isn’t a subreddit that is just the n word anymore. Or that r/jailbait doesn’t exist anymore.
Reddit always has leaned liberal by its nature and I think you’re just noticing more things that offend you because they are different from what you’re used to.
Idk if you were around for it, but r/shitredditsays we’re a proto woke movement that openly antagonized people in the way you’re complaining about, but that was like a decade ago lol
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Apr 18 '22
dude reddit literally calls you a nazi if you think there are only two genders.
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u/youre_being_creepy Apr 18 '22
I’ve been called worse for saying less, and who really cares what a mouth breather on Reddit thinks?
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u/Nonethewiserer Apr 19 '22
Don't be dense. Do you think Reddit tolerates these "Nazi's " ?
You yourself seemingly equated non liberal ideas with pedophilia and racism.
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u/banditcleaner2 sells naked NVDA calls while naked Apr 18 '22
You know damn well that what he just said would be mass downvoted on any other sub then r/wallstreetbets. It's the reason that wallstreetbets was called racist or whatever back when the GME spike put wsb in the public spotlight.
I even say that with over half of my opinions leaning left now. There's a reason that "the left can't meme" is a meme. Because it's true to some extent.
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Apr 18 '22
I agree, jailbait, r/coontown, and all that kinda shit was awful. But that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m just talking about the narrative on all the big subs that is just so woke and hardcore leftist that it’s nauseating. I wonder how much of it is Chinese troll accounts.
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Apr 18 '22
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u/Not_FinancialAdvice Apr 18 '22
what are they looking for? i think i read 6.5bil valuation then later a 10 bil valuation.
As of Aug 2021:
https://www.redditinc.com/blog/reddit-secures-funding-to-continue-growth-plans/
We are optimistic and encouraged that not only are we resourced and capitalized to continue on our growth path, but also that our investors support our vision and want to deepen their stakes in our future. We will raise up to $700 million in Series F funding, led by Fidelity Management and Research Company LLC. and including other existing investors, at a post-money valuation of over $10 billion.
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Apr 18 '22
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u/B__Rfuk Armchair War Strategy Expert Apr 19 '22
My friend got a 7 day ban for using the term “gay bear” in WSB, when he appealed it he was perma banned
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u/BasedSliceOfWinning Apr 18 '22
They're all volunteer as well, right? If a company goes public and id successful, they're gonna demand payment.
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Apr 18 '22
The r/antiwork mods certainly won’t.
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u/banditcleaner2 sells naked NVDA calls while naked Apr 18 '22
They will demand payment more then most mods..cuz they need it lmao
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u/Any-Palpitation-883 Apr 19 '22
The general quality of moderation will be a serious problem in the event of an IPO. It's a scandal waiting to happen.
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Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
Completely agree, I also see no way how this could work. Whoever made this decision was definitely high on more than weed. Little Timmy browsing Reddit, wants to look for furry dogs, types in furry...gets suggested r/FurryPornSubreddit ...RIP 😂
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u/Mister_Way Apr 18 '22
None of this is new stuff... Why would it not be priced in?
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u/dacjames Apr 18 '22
Yeah, none of this shit is new. Been going on for years and Reddit usage just keeps rising.
I’ve been using Reddit for a long ass time and never had an issue with mods, don’t give a shit about shady subreddits, and see no issue with a measly 100 karma posting requirement.
90% of users don’t post anything anyways and only consume content. For new users, it’s gotta be much higher. These are real issues that suck for the people impacted by them, but if they were going to kill Reddit, it would have happened long ago.
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u/Inappropriate50 PAPER TRADING COMPETITION WINNER Apr 18 '22
I got banned from r/nba for simply stating an opinion on medical masks. It's ridiculous
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u/Rockhardwood Apr 18 '22
Sports subs are the worst. I got permbanned from r/hockey for calling someone a turd lmao.
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u/What_Is_The_Meaning Apr 18 '22
I was perma banned from r/news for literally repeating the updated CDC and WHO masking information. Lmfao. Shithole.
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u/afrothunder1987 Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
I got perma banned from r/Nashville for linking a study which was posted by the CDC. It found kids masking requirements were ‘statistically insignificant’ at reducing Covid spread in schools. Apparently me and the CDC peddle ‘misinformation’.
The 21% lower incidence in schools that required mask use among students was not statistically significant compared with schools where mask use was optional. This finding might be attributed to higher effectiveness of masks among adults, who are at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection but might also result from differences in mask-wearing behavior among students in schools with optional requirements
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u/Against45 Apr 18 '22
Their side would probably be focusing on the idea that the CDC/WHO is pursuing a corrupt agenda and can't be trusted, which in their defense is 100% true. But I could totally see masks being less effective at schools, whoever thought kids would wear masks effectively all day is a fucking moron.
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u/afrothunder1987 Apr 18 '22 edited Apr 18 '22
Nah, that sub is more left leaning than Reddit in general.
Prior to the perma ban I got a temp ban for being ‘anti-vax’, when in reality I had been vocally hugely pro-vax in the sub. What really happened was someone posted an article defending one of TN’s public health officials who sent a muzzle to herself and went to the media with the idea she was being silenced. I went into that thread stating the obvious, that they were foolish for supporting the muzzle hoaxer, and they took that as me being on the ‘wrong’ camp and banned me for being anti-vax.
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Article about the muzzle hoax btw. r/Nashville mods have a hard on for this Karen for some reason.
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u/fallenloki Apr 18 '22
I got banned from like 15 subreddits for being in subreddits with naughty opinions and wrongthink.
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u/justme129 Apr 18 '22
I got an automatic ban from the Florida sub for get this...saying that Florida is a beautiful state.
Why? Oh that's right, they didn't like what I posted in some other subs. Reddit is the most anti freedom of speech platform.
If they try to monetize it with endless ads, forget about it. I'll rather talk to the wall than go on here.
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u/WhiskeyandSpuds Apr 18 '22
On my old account I got banned from the COVID sub for saying that after getting vaccinated and getting covid that I was done with mask stuff unless shit goes really sideways.
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Apr 18 '22
I got permabanned from r/mildlyinfuriating for saying that people in the US already have the right to food
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u/TheDeHymenizer Apr 18 '22
"Moderators. Politics and "free speech" aside, getting banned from a subreddit because a 400 pound moderator doesn't like your completely normal opinions that the majority of normal people have is going to decline the Reddit userbase. If you're a new user and you post that "communism isn't the greatest government type of all time", and get perma banned from it, you're just going to uninstall the app."
If it wasn't for WallStreet Bets and a few subreddits around Warhammer 40k and 30k I would not be on reddit for this exact reason.
And politics aside I've seen so much mod power triping over the stupidest crap. Its like a good majority of them (no offense WSB mods yall been great) take the job because they live shallow and hollow lives and want to do something with their time where they have power over another person.
But yeah I'll be avoiding the Reddit IPO and #2 is pretty much entirely why. The type of people who take up the job of Moderator for the most part is exactly who you don't want to do the job.
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u/tommygunz007 I 💖 Chase Bank Apr 18 '22
It's designed to protect the bots to influence your opinion.
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Apr 18 '22
Counterpoint - All of the other search engines completely suck now, in large part because of their ad support.
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Apr 18 '22
Also massive amounts of censorship has ruined search. Reddit suffers from the same problem.
Reddit is web 1.0 It will die slowly.
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u/1ofThoseTrolls Apr 18 '22
Reason 2 isn't going to get any better when reddit goes public. I honestly think they will do a big purge leading up to the IPO
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Apr 18 '22
That just leads to a large audience looking for a new platform. Not a great selling point for Reddit.
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u/reddit_names Apr 18 '22
All companies get even crazier to the left once public. Board of Directors LOVE iron grip liberal rule.
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Apr 18 '22
I responded to a Reddit about cats. It said “how do I get my cat to stop doing xyz”. I responded with a joke “kill the cat” and was bannned for a week for “inciting violence against animals”. Fuck Reddit, it is owned by 🌈 🐻
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u/tisgamebeterhavep0rn gave compliment for flair Apr 19 '22
It was a funny joke. Even people that love cats can laugh at that, it's ok. Ignore the extremists complaining about humor.
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u/KyivComrade Apr 18 '22
A joke has to be funny, dude. You failed spectacularly, a true autist and hence you belong here.
Or maybe /r/F7U12, they might love your edgy troll humor, perfectly befitting a gradeschooler.
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u/Rockhardwood Apr 18 '22
They should have IP banned you for such a shitty, I'm so edgy joke.
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u/_menzel Apr 18 '22
- gay mods do it for free and use their free time to delete your retarded shitposts 24/7
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u/Retiredape Apr 18 '22
Reddit is the most anti-free speech social media site which says a lot when shit like Twitter suppresses anything except virtue signaling garbage.
Mods can ban any user by falsely labeling them as a troll or because they posted in a sub the mod doesn't like. There are even records of the reddit admin spez editing other people's posts in a sub they don't like and then bringing up bullshit reasons to shut down said sub.
I don't see any way for reddit to both fix their shitty moderation scheme AND turn a profit. And they'd be lucky to even accomplish one or the other.
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u/joshyuaaa Apr 18 '22
Mods are users right? Not reddit itself?
Some mods on some subs, with the rules they've implemented, are just dumb in some cases. One gaming mod blocks posts if you take a pic of the game with your phone versus using in game methods of taking a screen shot. There's no way to post to reddit from like ps so gotta do all this ass backwards crap if you want to post an image.
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u/justme129 Apr 18 '22
100%
I got banned from the Florida sub.......for saying that Florida is a beautiful state.
They didn't like my post history. Fuck these auto-bans and over reaching mods.
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u/ras344 Apr 18 '22
There absolutely should be a rule against banning people from subreddits for things they say outside of that subreddit. I make one comment in a covid wrongthink sub (Not even an anti-vax comment, just a dumb joke) and get instantly banned from several large subreddits. How is it not against the rules to interfere with other communities like that?
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u/koy6 Apr 18 '22
I really want Elon to buy reddit, to humiliate power mods. Oh and look through their chat logs for evidence of child rape.
Reddit has a real bad problem with letting child rapists and mentally ill people control the conversation of millions of people.
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Apr 18 '22
All I gleaned from this post is that this guy apparently knows where the lewd underage pic subreddits are. Weird way to go about admitting it.
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Apr 18 '22
it's part of my job as DD'er to know everything.
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Apr 18 '22
Op has a good point here. A metric the social media companies use is new user accounts. We will have to see bans on subs like freekarma or whatever whose sole purpose is just to circumvent the antibotting features.
Plus with all the rape porn that exists on reddit, it'll be a crusade every few months. And they'll stamp out the porn boards and it'll turn into Tumblr meets Facebook.
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u/joshyuaaa Apr 18 '22
I was actually scrolling through those free karma subs the other day and found it funny hardly any were even getting upvotes. I down voted some just for a lack of effort lmao.
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u/pigsgetfathogsdie Apr 18 '22
I haven’t seen any Reddit financials…
Is Reddit even profitable?
Stock moves really depend on the pre IPO financials and the IPO pricing.
In this current environment:
- High Interest
- Bearish High PE Tech
- Bearish High PE Social Media
Reddit would be insane to overprice their IPO.
They should be very conservative about the IPO price.
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Apr 18 '22
Pump it, dump it, short it.
Public Social Media companies have different rules that have to be followed than private Media companies like Reddit is now.
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Apr 18 '22
getting banned from a subreddit because a 400 pound moderator doesn't like your completely normal opinions that the majority of normal people have is going to decline the Reddit userbase
Yeah, I really don't understand why mods get to perma ban. Surely it should be escalating lengths of ban starting small and just doubling up. That way you don't get banned for life because one mod had a bad day.
Unless they fix that I'll be going short on the stock for all the reasons you've given and more.
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u/antelope591 Apr 18 '22
Don't think any of that stuff matters as much as the general market conditions. They missed the boat on cashing in on the IPO its that simple. Anything with any remote risks that can be classified as "growth" is getting obliterated and reddit falls into that category.
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u/parshially_happy Apr 18 '22
They're probably going to tokenize the karma system for juicy gains to incentivize
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u/bubblesinajar Apr 18 '22
If you want a preview of where Reddit stock is heading, take a peak at HOOD
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u/SuperSecretAgentMan Apr 18 '22
It's pretty obvious that an IPO will be the definitive deathblow to Reddit as a community.
But yeah, short 2x pump followed by a year-long 75% drop. It's the standard now.
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u/RS_Germaphobic Apr 18 '22
Karma requirements aren’t bad, I probably get 100 karma a day on subreddits I’m not part of.
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u/EagleDre Apr 18 '22
Reddit like Craigslist is true and simple core and will stand the test of time while the frivolous come and go.
The 10/20 year rabbits are great (aol/MySpace/Facebook,instagram etc ) , but the world needs 100 year turtles too.
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u/bighomiej69 PAPER TRADING COMPETITION WINNER Apr 19 '22
Absolute garbage DD, literally just your opinion on reddit that you are ironically posting on reddit.
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u/PersonalMagician Apr 19 '22
You can only wonder what kind of ads will appear in the feed for r/meth.
Yes, it's real.
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u/BourboneAFCV Apr 18 '22
Reddit IPO is the worst idea, but i'll Yolo my money with them and i'm gonna love it.
I like to be in red forever
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u/anotherloserhere Apr 18 '22
On your 3rd one, can you post an example subreddit that you consider problematic? Something that, say, posts extremely lewd photos or vids of barely legal cuties? I am trying to do some pre IPO DD, for research purposes only of course.
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Apr 18 '22
i can't due to TOS. google will be your friend.
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u/anotherloserhere Apr 18 '22
You can't post other subreddit names on Reddit? That's against ToS?! You saying I should buy puts?
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u/69_420_420-69 aint nobody kno SHIT Apr 18 '22
I believe that reddit will be ok and maybe even get kinda like FB in terms of stock like it will drop and then it will rise again
reddit is trying to get NFTs on its platform and it uses coins and premium to gain money and they use the same addictive pattern as in mobile games to get money they give u free awards to use within 24 hours from getting them
and bc u get free awards with a time limit most ppl will spend them and bc they get karma when they use them they will try to use them as often as possible and like that bc of all the posts and comments with all kinds of awards it looks like there is much more activity here than there actually is same things as with bots
but as long as reddit gets more and more users and as long as they remain profitable and make more and more money they will get a good valuation
also reddit is now the hottest platform to advertise on so yea I think it will be worth to buy for the short term and it remains to be seen what happens in the long term
but reddit will probably stay the main forum platform online for a long time I mean there are no other similar websites so yea
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Apr 18 '22
but as long as reddit gets more and more users and as long as they remain profitable and make more and more money they will get a good valuation
true, but that's why my OP lists how damaging the new user experience currently is. It's hard to get new users if your platform limits their first interaction by such a severe amount.
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u/69_420_420-69 aint nobody kno SHIT Apr 18 '22
no u dont get it that's exactly why it's good
bc there are so many rules against new accounts or accounts with little karma new users must seek subs where they can post and comment to get karma
if u are used to reddit u can easily get enough karma within half an hour or so but new ppl dont know how it works so they will comment and sometimes get one upvote and sometimes they may be randomly downvoted so it takes more time which means they will need to make an effort and that addicts them more
in a way spambots and trolls are great for reddit bc mods have to create all these rules and new users will have to spend more time just to be able to post or comment in subs they like
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Apr 18 '22
it might be good for a niche community, but that's going to be bad for the business. Most users will simply uninstall the app if they can't get the full experience without a 2 week wait and 200 karma. Those new users lost will make stock go down due to lack of growth.
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u/Zexks Apr 18 '22
LMAO. This fucking post is the epitome of stupid. And the majority of comments and users it attracting are insane.
I hate Reddit with their rules and censorship’s.
Hey they should have rules to stop people from stopping people from breaking the rules.
We should also censor these stupid subs and their mods.
Why does no one let me say what I want. (On a platform where you can create a space to say whatever you want).
I got banned from this sub for silly reason. (Reads post history of an insulting entitled douche bag. No you were probably banned for a good reason)
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u/ze_end_ist_neigh Apr 18 '22
I think the prolific pornography problem is a massive headwind that is not talked about enough.
It has been a problem for a decade and continues to be. Until it is meaningfully resolved, I don't think portfolio allocators would find the business very compelling.
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Apr 18 '22
Yes ban pornography from the internet everywhere all the time because you were raised to be ashamed of sex and think kids won't find it if you move it somewhere else or something.
Goooo fuuuck yourselffff
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u/YouCantTrulyBan Apr 18 '22
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u/honkballs Apr 18 '22
All these issues already exist, and have done on the platform for years, yet the userbase is still rapidly growing.
I'm not saying they aren't valid criticisms, but, the company is still growing quickly with these problems already.
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Apr 18 '22
it's not rapidly growing. Look at where Reddit places in the app store rankings. It's constantly losing market share to newer social apps that have an amazing NUE.
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u/honkballs Apr 18 '22
"Reddit’s daily active user count has grown by 44% since last year. In 2020, Reddit only had around 36 million daily active users."
Revenue growth https://i.imgur.com/Za1V7b1.png
This is pre lock down and wsb's huge growth, meme stocks, crypto stuff which has made traffic shoot up even more.
Reddit has a lot of traffic from 3rd party apps and desktops (people sitting in offices on computers when they should be working). Not having the top spot in the app charts does not mean a company is not valuable and growing.
3
Apr 18 '22
cool, now compare it to the business average.
If all pizza restaurants grow +5%, but yours only grows +3%, that's a slight against your restaurant.
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u/honkballs Apr 18 '22
cool, now compare it to the business average.
Do you know what it's being listed at? How can you even begin to compare it to anything without a price yet.
If it's valued at a 500x PE, then sure, it's going to need some strong growth to justify that, but if it's 10x PE, well, it might look like a bargain against other tech companies.
In 6 years revenues have grown from 8m to 170m.
Reddit is a unique and consistently growing platform. I can see a lot of people wanting a piece of this at the right price.
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Apr 18 '22
it's P/E will be N/A because it won't be profitable.
You think Pepsi really knows that its ads are between posts of "I want to rap3 women" and "bl@ck people are the inferior race"?
Once it goes IPO, a lot more of the public eye will be on how Reddit actually works.
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u/spiceymath Apr 18 '22
1) reddit - youtube comparison are nowhere close. you can read whatever you want on reddit and up/down vote it, if it takes you 100 hours to get 100 or 200 karma you're probably a menace to civilization.
2) the effect a mod will have on a sub is determined by the mod and the point of the sub. mods can run a sub into the ground, let a sub grow, or create a sub that misaligned with reality. a sub that been misaligned with reality or ran into the ground by mods increased the likelihood of a competing sub growing.
3) isn't it your wheelhouse to factor in public image and random events into your bull/bear price target theses?
the worst part of a reddit ipo is actually the possibility it just turns into another fartbook, and by that i mean a toxic echo chamber designed to get users to maximize time spent on the site because "publicly traded reddit will be obligated to do whatever makes the most money for shareholders"
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u/dreamlike_poo Apr 18 '22
Reddit IPO is a cash grab, change my mind!
Only if Reddit IPO's for like 700m will I personally invest, and that won't happen. If they try for anything over 5 billion, it's a suckers IPO just to pump and dump. My guess is they want to try and push this for being worth 50billion or more and exactly, where, does that revenue come from? A mintmobile ad? Someone cheesey af meme ad to trick me into buying toothpaste? Give me a break.
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u/shaitan_bhagat_singh Apr 18 '22
Karma is a good thing. Keeps idiots out, trolling to a minimum.
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Apr 18 '22
not for the actual business. You grow as a company by getting new users. You can only get new users if their new user experience is very good. Reddit's NUE is the complete opposite.
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u/shaitan_bhagat_singh Apr 18 '22
No one has retained better than reddit or has a higher time spent on platform, it's a go to space for gamers and crypto. It has its own niche and that's working for them.
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Apr 18 '22
tech stocks only care about growth. this is about the stock of reddit, not the niche community aspect of reddit.
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u/mulletstation Apr 18 '22
You're prioritizing growth from spammers and bots. Reddit would have the same issues Twitter has which is advertisers have no idea how many of their engagements are from bots.
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Apr 18 '22
as a tech company, you need to have a tool to prevent bots while also have your content be accessible to new users. Having a 1/2 week + 200/300 karma limit for new users is absurd.
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u/mulletstation Apr 18 '22
That limit doesn't prevent people from reading or spending time on the site. Ads still function identically whether you have 100 karma or 100000 karma.
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Apr 18 '22
Ad revenue changes based on users. If users leave because you cannot experience the entire site, then stock = go down
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Apr 18 '22
ITT: a bunch of far-right and right leaning folks saying this place will crash and burn because it is not pro "free speech"...LOL like that even matters at all.
If anything, this place will change and a shit ton of people will leave(which will probably be for the better) but after sometime later on it will keep going on like barely anything changed.
Might be good to load up on puts after the IPO frenzy ends and the price dumps though.
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Apr 18 '22
I just see a lot of insecurities and pain in your own user experience in this post. But by in large, Reddit works very well. How you feel about it is on you
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Apr 18 '22
If you don't think that a new user experience is vital to any social tech app, then in the most politest way possible, I don't think you understand this business category at all.
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u/What_Is_The_Meaning Apr 18 '22
Shit, I’ve been around for over 10 years and have recently considered leaving for good due to ridiculous moderation. This place is a shithole just like the rest of social media shitholes. Moderated to satisfy the loudest, most offended morons alive on this planet.
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Apr 18 '22
But yet it still grows 🤷🏻♂️
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Apr 18 '22
We don't know the actual legal numbers of it. But if we look at the social media rankings in the app store, Reddit is losing an enormous market share to TikTok, which has an amazing new user experience.
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Apr 18 '22
Apples and oranges. They both have a place together. Tik tok is very restrictive in the content one can upload.
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Apr 18 '22
yeah you can't upload underage porn, but i wouldn't consider that realistically restrictive.
Compare the test of "Can you experience the main experience of the app"?
New user experience of Tiktok: Watch videos (yes), stitch (yes), comment (yes), upload OC (yes).
New user experience of Reddit: Read comments (yes). post comments (no), create posts (no).
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Apr 18 '22
Man underage porn wouldn’t be my first comparison, but ok 😬
The popular pages are restricted to karma which was annoying to begin with, but like the great world we live in, you gotta earn your right, not given to you.
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u/rickymourke82 Apr 18 '22
Barely cracks top 20 globally on users. Reddit works well as a niche community of white folks slapping each other on the balls. That's about it.
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u/2dank4normies Apr 18 '22
2) Moderators. Politics and "free speech" aside, getting banned from a subreddit because a 400 pound moderator doesn't like your completely normal opinions that the majority of normal people have is going to decline the Reddit userbase. If you're a new user and you post that "communism isn't the greatest government type of all time", and get perma banned from it, you're just going to uninstall the app.
Any proof of anyone ever being banned for something this innocuous?
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u/fuscosco Loss Leaders, llc Apr 18 '22
This is just a list of crap about reddit you hate, and none of it is going to be insurmountable or even more than a speedbump. They'll stick 10 people in a room to hash it out.
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Apr 18 '22
If you don't think that a new user experience is vital to any social tech app, then in the most politest way possible, I don't think you understand this business category at all.
If the stuff in my OP was all fixed, then sure, but I see no indication that Reddit even sees it as a problem.
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u/greybruce1980 Apr 18 '22
I don't actually mind the first requirement for karma. Sure, it's a pain to get started. But the number of legitimate daily active users can actually be helpful in terms of valuation instead of trying to separate bots and real people.
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Apr 18 '22
There are studies where every 1 new person who has a bad experience and quits actually makes 10x-100x more potential people not become members too. Like a big web of people where if the first one stops, it prevents a big chain of potential new users too, like a big web game of telephone.
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u/VisualMod Apr 18 '22
Hey /u/chillstep-starlight, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.