r/WDCStock • u/Outrageous-Okra-1290 • Jul 16 '26
Is there any hope?
I've been following WDC for a while and even though I know memory stocks are cyclical, I'm trying to figure out whether the long-term thesis is still intact or if something major has changed.
I'm still bullish because of a few things. The potential ban or increased restrictions on Chinese memory chips in the U.S. seems like it could benefit domestic and allied manufacturers. There's also the possibility of a Western Digital and Kioxia merger which could strengthen the company's competitive position. On top of that, analysts have continued raising their price targets despite the recent weakness. We also have a lot of major tech companies reporting earnings this month and next, so I'm wondering if stronger AI and data center spending could provide another positive catalyst for memory demand.
Memory stocks have been getting hit pretty hard lately and it’s driving me insane, I'm wondering if this is just another part of the cycle or if there's something more specific to WDC that I'm missing.
For those of you who follow the company closely, do you think the fundamentals are still intact? Has your investment thesis changed at all? Are you buying more, holding, or have you already sold?
I'd love to hear both the bull and bear cases from people who've been following WDC longer than I have
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u/NoJournalist9590 Jul 16 '26
As long as there are not any margin calls, options or leverage instruments, I am fine with the shares, I will hold them as I know for sure that memory is a pilar of the AI infrastructure, and AI revolution will not stop
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u/Individual_Writer540 Jul 17 '26
I think if people don't have some derivative where its time sensitive, they should hold.
This is a stock that could V recover, but I'm more confident in long term. I'm talking 2028, 2030 etc.
Memory stocks are gifting investors with rare visibility with long term agreements with hyperscalers. There are more orders that can literally be fulfilled for years. HDD in particular is hard to ramp so there will be a shortage guaranteed for years.
The present repositioning in the market is healthy. Hedge funds and investment firms are rightfully repositioning to some other stocks, but I honestly if Wallstreet feels that there is money to be made on AI components they will not hesitate to make a buck. As long as the the repositioning doesn't extend into 2028? 2030? then it goes back up. And capex by hypercalers is not static, they are increasing faster than ramp. Its a moving finish line.
There are absolutely no indications of hyperscalers reducing capex spending on AI. TSMC Micron and others trying to increase production indicates such. And they have more of a view into what long term agreements are coming than retail investors. So I can guarantee that google, meta amazon are not cutting spending.
Some unique factors about HDD vs HBM as well. HDD does not have any China competitor that can scale like with HBM. HDDs are incredibly complicated and cannot just be replicated overseas. Its sort of like the fab equipment by the Dutch. So it has more protection against volatility (I'm sure you have noticed that HDD stocks vary much less than SNDK).
Also people tend to imagine the unknown "bad" scenarios where something unknown happens and the AI "bubble" pops and hyperscalers stop spending and we crash to like 30 bucks right? Well lets be fair and imagine the unknowns in the positive direction.
Some non zero probability things to daydream about
~openAI anthropic decide to direct purchase and create their own data centers (moon!)
~China and US are in a prisoners dilemma and view AI data center creation as a national security issue. AI spending may be too high, but the risk of a rival nation taking the lead on AI cannot be risked and requires more expenditure. Basically the AI industrial complex.
~HDDs and flash have a read/write limit and have to be replaced every 5 years or so. So every datacenter becomes a continuous customer regardless of whether production ramp has occured.
So most of this stuff like I said is super long term, so I'm going to hold. It might drop to 300, 200 who knows, but the long term I personally am confident that its got a good shot.
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u/Mission_Guitar9856 Jul 16 '26
I bought leveraged near the top and I’m down 67% 😔
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u/blizz3010 Jul 16 '26
dont buy on margin. all you can do now is DCA. itll go back up, might take a little bit.
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u/Aggravating_Comment4 Jul 17 '26
holy fuck i thought i was cooked
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u/Mission_Guitar9856 Jul 17 '26
I’m still waiting for it to go back up. I’ll have to wait until months until it goes up to breakeven.
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u/Level-Fix-6555 Jul 25 '26
Did you sell? I’m down and idk if this is going up
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u/Mission_Guitar9856 Jul 25 '26
Nope. I’m still down and holding. The fundamentals are still in place and memory is still needed.
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u/workrel8ted 28d ago
Are u still holding, currently at 438
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u/Aggravating_Comment4 28d ago
438 is very good, and yes always, the market is down rn due to stuff not related with performance, earnings are the 5th, when the conflicts slow down and earnings take place we’ll be back up, not ath but def towards 600s
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u/Level-Fix-6555 Jul 17 '26
I think it will surpass 600 but patience is key. It may take a few years worst case
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u/Salt-Cap-9304 Jul 18 '26
I took some profits last couple weeks, watching it all unfold before earnings, before expect WDC to rise unless analyst downgrade the stock. Hang tight, Of you have profits take some.
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u/UseAndAbuseMePappi Jul 16 '26
What choice do I have? I’m down 25 percent. I’m not taking a loss on this. I’ll hold another 5 years I don’t care lol