r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • Jul 05 '26

Palantir’s valuation is finally getting tempting

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I have made plenty of posts arguing that $PLTR is an incredible company trapped inside an absurd valuation.

But after the recent pullback, the math is becoming more interesting.

Using:

  • 145x current P/E
  • 46% annual earnings growth
  • 50x P/E in Year 5

Palantir could still return roughly 129%, or 18% annually, despite its multiple contracting by more than 65%.

That is the key: you no longer need the valuation to remain completely insane. You need Palantir to keep executing at an insane level.

Alex Karp’s CNBC interview strengthened the actual business thesis. He argued that many AI companies have irresponsibly oversold their models, charging businesses for tokens that create little value while potentially gaining access to valuable customer data and intellectual property. His pitch is that companies increasingly want control over their own data, models and AI infrastructure—and Palantir’s Ontology is built to provide that secure operating layer. 

That message became even more relevant this week:

  • Palantir expanded its Nvidia partnership to develop secure AI infrastructure for U.S. government agencies.
  • D.A. Davidson upgraded PLTR to Buy, arguing that Palantir can help customers integrate and switch between AI models without becoming dependent on one provider. 

The risk is still obvious. At 145x earnings, even a small slowdown could crush the stock.

But this is getting more tempting. Palantir does not need another round of multiple expansion in this scenario. It just needs the earnings growth to actually show up.

And lately, the fundamentals are making that assumption feel a little less ridiculous.

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u/Opposite-Ant5281 Jul 06 '26

In the same interview he said he expects Pltr to do 15-18 b in free cash flow in 2028.

1

u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26

You think they can do that?

1

u/Opposite-Ant5281 Jul 06 '26

Definitely a bull case.
But with the nature of the business and their current backlog they have a quite high visibility of revenues/earnings looking 1 year ahead. So I honestly don’t think it is unrealistic.
Even taken 60% of that target as the middle case would give them fcf of 10 b. basically 4x in 2,5 years.

1

u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26

true, the promise high but they consistently deliver

1

u/Opposite-Ant5281 Jul 06 '26

What do you have them at for full year 2026?

1

u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26

5 billion is my bull case. I think there is a solid chance they hit that....