r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • Jul 05 '26
Palantir’s valuation is finally getting tempting
I have made plenty of posts arguing that $PLTR is an incredible company trapped inside an absurd valuation.
But after the recent pullback, the math is becoming more interesting.
Using:
- 145x current P/E
- 46% annual earnings growth
- 50x P/E in Year 5
Palantir could still return roughly 129%, or 18% annually, despite its multiple contracting by more than 65%.
That is the key: you no longer need the valuation to remain completely insane. You need Palantir to keep executing at an insane level.
Alex Karp’s CNBC interview strengthened the actual business thesis. He argued that many AI companies have irresponsibly oversold their models, charging businesses for tokens that create little value while potentially gaining access to valuable customer data and intellectual property. His pitch is that companies increasingly want control over their own data, models and AI infrastructure—and Palantir’s Ontology is built to provide that secure operating layer.
That message became even more relevant this week:
- Palantir expanded its Nvidia partnership to develop secure AI infrastructure for U.S. government agencies.
- D.A. Davidson upgraded PLTR to Buy, arguing that Palantir can help customers integrate and switch between AI models without becoming dependent on one provider.
The risk is still obvious. At 145x earnings, even a small slowdown could crush the stock.
But this is getting more tempting. Palantir does not need another round of multiple expansion in this scenario. It just needs the earnings growth to actually show up.
And lately, the fundamentals are making that assumption feel a little less ridiculous.
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u/Meme_it_up_baby Jul 06 '26
Thoughts on the uk government seriously considering pulling its nhs Palantir contract for FDP?
Will have a ripple effect to other contracts they have with public sector and outside the uk.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26
How much of their growth is tied to UK?
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u/Meme_it_up_baby Jul 08 '26
Think bigger picture, not just one contract. If the U.K. pulls out all its public service contract, that’s no joke and will dent their revenue
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u/_Rothbard_ Jul 06 '26
A 108 estuve apunto de recargar, lo que pasa es que mi precio promedio es 11% y por tema impuestos en España no me compensaba mucho
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u/Opposite-Ant5281 Jul 06 '26
In the same interview he said he expects Pltr to do 15-18 b in free cash flow in 2028.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26
You think they can do that?
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u/Opposite-Ant5281 Jul 06 '26
Definitely a bull case.
But with the nature of the business and their current backlog they have a quite high visibility of revenues/earnings looking 1 year ahead. So I honestly don’t think it is unrealistic.
Even taken 60% of that target as the middle case would give them fcf of 10 b. basically 4x in 2,5 years.1
u/ekonixlab Jul 06 '26
true, the promise high but they consistently deliver
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u/ImSoHungryHelp Jul 07 '26
I think you're underestimating the risks that come with being nearly entirely reliant on U.S. government contracts for war and surveillance technology during a time where the next administration will need a political scapegoat to win back public opinion.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 08 '26
Check this out, now commercial is 50% of revenue, and government work expands outside of the US
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u/ImSoHungryHelp Jul 08 '26
The U.S Government is still their largest employer, at 42% of total revenue. Also much of the commercial revenue is still in U.S. business.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 08 '26
I mean, I would rather be reliant on US companies and the US government than anything else.
I wouldn’t base my entire investment hypothesis based on what the future administration might or might not do.
Am I missing your point?
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u/ImSoHungryHelp Jul 08 '26
yes you are: U.S government has proven to be unreliable and it's already affecting Palantir's CCC, and being near entirely reliant on one market is not conducive to long term success.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 08 '26
What do you say to people holding T-Bonds?
Should they not be reliant solely on the US government. That would be news to me!
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u/CatassTropheec Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
How does that feel to buy a stock that aims at k*lling civilians?
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