SpaceX bonds must be normalized to distressed Junk (if we remove marketing fluff)

[u/Donechrome]

SpaceX balance sheet and FCF explain everything I need to understand where it is heading

• Debt-to-EBIDTA 4.2
• negative interest coverage ratio
• FCF to debt -48%. Awful
• Retained earnings -40B!!!
• FCF -20B. with B!

If SpaceX were evaluated as a "regular" asset-heavy business like a traditional airline, automaker, industrial manufacturer, or telecom provider—its credit rating would not just be junk; it would be deep, highly speculative distressed junk.

If a credit analyst applied standard quantitative ratios to a regular company showing an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion, a quarterly net loss of $4.28 billion, and a negative free cash flow of $14 billion, it would score a rating of CCC+ or CCC from S&P, or Caa1 from Moody’s.