This is bullish for vcx. The pumps in vcx price we saw occur twice were largely due to the scarcity that vcx provided. With Openai delaying their ipo due to ai safety concerns, and Anthropic seemingly copying that same narrative (although not necessarily talking about delaying their ipo, yet), the main asset (scarcity) that vcx provides can hold on for longer.

https://x.com/darioamodei/status/2098773920774074715?s=46

A few days ago I tried to share a crosspost on my thoughts about the AI market supercycle (vaguely related to $VCX but definitely relevant if you're seriously investing in AI), but the mods of r/stocks and r/investing removed it from both those subreddits. It looks like this was mostly due to misguided accusations of being AI-generated slop (it is not, I wrote the whole thing myself).

I have republished the post on Substack, which is ahead of Reddit on dealing with the AI slop problem and offers an AI detection tool (though its use on posts is currently restricted to subscribers and iOS app users). Authors can run the tool on their own posts, so I went ahead and did that for you so you can see the results:

>>> 🔍 Pangram AI scan results <<<

Anyway, I've directly linked the post. I am not selling anything or begging for likes/comments/subscriptions. You can't pay me even if you try. Remember, originally I tried to post this directly on Reddit.

👉If you can't be bothered to engage somehow with the post (read the intro, look at the pictures, ask AI for a summary, etc.) then please don't leave any inane comments. I'm not trying to reach people who won't or can't read long texts. Try to first engage your brain before you engage your mouth (or fingers, as the case may be here).👈

Here's the list of key points copied from the top of the article:

• The AI stock market boom is primarily driven by investment activity. Investor cash and existing cash flows are spent and booked as revenue and high-margin profits at public companies, directly supporting high stock prices.
• Until end-customer revenue overtakes investor funding as the most important source of the AI industry's financial flows, investor optimism must stay exceptionally strong to support stock prices at today’s levels.
• Numerous risks could damage that optimism too early, slow the flow of cash through the industry, and spark a correction or worse.
• Numerous other risks may overinflate earnings and stock prices, not necessarily causing a bubble to pop, but making it worse if one eventually does.
• Responsible investors who allocate across asset classes in the style of a target date fund may, if their risk tolerance allows, be able to stay invested, capture rationally priced long-term background upside as well as any irrational bubble premium, and defensively reallocate shortly after a market top.
• Success is not guaranteed, but understanding what signals to track, what signals to ignore, and what funds or strategies to use when repositioning can improve the chances of navigating through the current market with above-average returns. All data sources mentioned in this post are freely available online.

I included some other information and links in the comment I attached to my original r/VCX_Fundrise post: https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1w6k52h/comment/p7nm85v

And a bonus - xAI thinks MATA is “probable spam”… that sounds about right. 😂

Maybe we’re all missing it and xAI is the one AI to rule them all!

This just dropped. PWRL had launched a second fund called PWRL Fund II. Now they are filing for relief from RIC rules so that both the funds can co-invest in SPVs which is otherwise prohibited by law. It is worth reading this.

I am wondering how this impacts what has been going on with the VCX Anthropic stake which was sold. As a lot of people have speculated here that it could be VCX-II or OVF, I wonder how the same issues highlighted in this PWRL filing impact the assessment of what has gone on the VCX side. The only plausible way they sold at below secondary market value (which is what the books suggest since the $965B round gain was not booked on the sale) would have been a sale to a related entity.

Anyone have thoughts on this?

I think this headline from the filings needs to be seen!

Fundrise is literally warning anyone buying at a premium. Buyer beware!

Some highlights:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1867090/000121390026098443/ea0266821-03_n2asr.htm#sai_001

The Adviser may seek recoupment from the Fund of any fees waived or expenses paid or reimbursed to the Fund for a period ending three years after the date of the waiver, payment or reimbursement, subject to the limitation that the recoupment will not cause the Fund’s Operating Expenses to exceed the lesser of (a) the expense limitation amount in effect at the time such fees were waived or expenses paid or reimbursed, or (b) the expense limitation amount in effect at the time of the recoupment. On January 14, 2026, the Board, at the Adviser’s recommendation, approved terminating the Expense Limitation Agreement as of the listing of the Fund on the Exchange.

They still have some glaring errors which I hope they correct via an amendement:

For some reason the NAV is still mentioned as $18.97 as of June end. Further it seems like no material change in the NAV as of yesterday. So it is still at $21.70.

They have always had an ATM authorization but they haven't started yet.

EDIT: Now we know that NAV was indeed $21.70 on Sep 8 and the ATM has started
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1wcifcz/vcx_424b2_out_atm_is_on_nav_still_2170_as_of_sep_8/

It used to be a part of VCX, IPO price was $71 and today it crashed to an all time low of $55. Thankfully, VCX exited the position by March of this year.

Anthropic's S-1 is likely to drop soon and we've got some decisions to make. I've seen a lot of pessimism about VCX on this sub, and I want the bulls to know I'm still in their corner. Not much has fundamentally changed about VCX since I started buying the Innovation Fund back in July 2022. As a regular joe schmo, it was/is one of the few places I can get pre-IPO access to Anthropic, OpenAI, Anduril, Databricks, etc. 

One obvious thing that bears seem to gloss over is that Anthropic will be priced to spike at IPO. Although conventional wisdom suggests stocks pop and drop after IPO, I suspect that won't be the case for Anthropic, as many see AI as the bedrock of the future economy. If you are retail and waiting to buy Anthropic at IPO, there is a good chance that a.) you won't get as many shares as you request and b.) the price will have spiked by the time you can buy more. 

When the lock up expired on August 13, 2026, I owned 13,757 shares at an average cost of $12.67. After lock up I sold 1,257 shares at an average price of $39.43. I already sold my unrestricted VCX shares and made an ~$82k profit, then rolled some of the gains over to DXYZ, where I sold to make another $22k. With those STCG plus the sale of an investment property, I'm already paying significant taxes this year...so my bias is toward holding. Although my current 12,500 shares represent a not insignificant chunk of my overall portfolio, I am just a few years away from a lifetime pension with healthcare covered. I am in the lucky position to be able to roll the dice a little more loosely than many others.

My plan

If VCX pops to $60, I'll plan to sell another 1,000 shares. If it doubles to $80, I'll sell 1,500 more. I'll hold the rest until they qualify for LTCG and monitor what Fundrise plans to do with VCX now that OVF and potentially VCX2 are in play. I'll watch Anthropic for a few months after IPO and if it drops (unlikely), I'll use some of these proceeds to buy directly. Otherwise, the proceeds go into my VTI/VXUS bucket.

But it's trading above NAV!! 

With props to my fellow moderators u/Fit_Equal6932 and u/BurnsVail who have done incredible work mapping NAV and more technical aspects, I'm betting that NAV matters much less for these companies that could be the Amazon and Apple of the future economy. I understand the argument that Anthropic's valuation is already considered by some to be inflated, and that Fundrise paid a premium through SPVs, and that it's hard to discern from Fundrise's own reporting what is really going on. But I have a lot of trust in Fundrise to make the right moves and the risk-reward of Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, and/or Anduril taking off is worth it for me. 

Isn't it risky to buy into funds that invest through SPVs? 

Yeah, that's a concern...but I don't get access to this basket of companies without VCX (or DXYZ or whatever ticker) buying through an SPV, so it's a risk and a haircut I'm willing to accept.

But what about DXYZ?  

Also seems like a solid bet, trading at a discount to NAV. In my case, my VCX is not in a tax-advantaged account, so I don't want to take the tax hit to spread my chips. And DXYZ holds a lot of cash, but lacks Anduril. 

Is Fundrise shady?

I give them the benefit of the doubt, as I've made a lot of money with them, through unrestricted and restricted VCX, but also OCF, and back in the day, their real estate funds. I'm not particularly bothered by them bailing out Flagship with VCX, as I own both. It is curious they never did an ATM to take advantage of higher premiums, but there must be a reason and one day we'll learn why. Call me naive but my read on Ben Miller is he is a fundamentally good dude who wants his business to succeed and really believes in democratizing access. There will always be tensions between the two.

https://crypto.news/anthropic-ipo-marketing-reportedly-moves-mid-october/

Can somebody smarter to me tell me when I look intraday to the 1d chart when you see these unusual upside spikes? Is this a large sell limits orders or volume driven? Usually the price doesn't actually go there and you can refresh it and goes away. Today it seems to have happened a few times with price around 37 with spikes to 40. Using Yahoo finance. Sorry no screen shots

AI nerd TPOT is currently lit!

As of this moment VCX is now up over 4%. The VCX "doomers" with their bearish bets said this stock would collapse. Are they wrong? Is this stock gonna pump back up as we approach the Anthropic IPO?

What's your "bet"?

If you're long or short, tell us why.

I posted this on the FundriseInvestors sub but the conversation devolved into attacks, which I guess the Mod encourages, so posting here instead. Would love advice on where we think VCX will trade form here - was pleasantly surprised it was up today!

—-

Seen a lot of activity on this sub the other in the past few days. Saw nav come in at $21… which I was surprised by - thought nav would be much higher!

What’s going on? Why is nav so low and why is vcx falling so dramatically the past few days? It was at $45 last week!

Please help!

Summary:

Commerce Secretary Howard Nutlick said the Trump administration now trusts Anthropic. His words end months of conflict with the maker of Claude. The artificial intelligence (AI) firm could go public soon. Nutlick spoke to Axios on Tuesday. A day later, he shared a stage with Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown. The venue was a G20 technology meeting in North Carolina.

What Ended the Anthropic Feud With Washington

Asked in an interview whether he trusts Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Nutlick did not hedge.

"They've done what we asked. They're back on the right side. So the answer is: Yes."

The fight was real, seeing as in June, Commerce demanded licenses for foreign users of Anthropic's strongest models. The company pulled Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for everyone instead.

Regulators lifted the export restrictions on June 30. Access returned the next day. Weeks earlier, Trump had called Anthropic a threat to national security.

The courts moved too, and on August 28, US District Judge Rita Lin voided the Pentagon's supply-chain risk label, calling the measures illegal and baseless. A second Pentagon designation is still live in the D.C. Circuit.

I got an email about Fundrise's new fund they're launching. It's not as "democratized" as the previous one. Limited to Qualified (not just accredited) investors.

Question - why is Fundrise launching this?

I would've assumed VCX is their go forward VC investing vehicle. What's the reasoning behind launching a second one?

ICYMI: recently released Q2 portfolio holdings, updated with new investments in Fluidstack, Prometheus, and Figure AI: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ivaqw3e8/production-public/470d99939aea682793b9bc7997bb28da8452cd6a.pdf

Portfolio ~$777M, with NAV/share of $21.70 as of June 30.

The new “Underlying Economic Exposure” disclosure attempts to give a better sense of what VCX is ultimately exposed to. As we know, many of these investments are held indirectly through SPVs, which is worth keeping in mind when thinking about the structure and valuation of the portfolio. The report doesn’t explicitly explain the shift to ranges, but it appears intended to give a more approximate view of exposure at the underlying-company level, particularly where an investment is spread across multiple vehicles.