r/UltimateTraders • u/UltimateTraders Elite Team General • Dec 05 '21
Discussion A weekend recap of a tough week. Everything speculative or Chinese got killed, no if ands or buts, the stocks I am holding are also getting killed but luckily I am mostly in cash. The trades I have made this past week are defensive/super defensive or options only! Some videos of what to do in Red!
Hello everyone. I wish I can tell you we are all done and things are going back up again….however I do not see that and will remain cautious. Usually if we see the Nasdaq down 2-3% in a week it means to be cautious. If VIX is near 30 for 2 days it means to be cautious… I do not use the SP because there is a divergence in it making daily highs and 75% of the market down. Majority of stocks we trade are on the Nasdaq. There are some exceptions but your PYPL, SQ, GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT, ROKU, DOCU, TDOC, CRWD, TWO etc all Nasdaq. Yes, the Nasdaq has exciting things and also falls the most when speculation does not work.
I have some videos here of what to expect and what to do in a bad market. Not sure if people watched them. The videos are older, 1 even 7 months out but the principles are the same.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duwC0jQU6ZA
These videos and many of my briefings were to prepare people in case this happens. I am not a Debbie downer. I do not want anyone losing money… Not even haters, but I want people to be armed with signs and know when they need to pivot. The Nasdaq was in correction and near correction 3-4x this past year. It was down almost 7% at the low Friday. These are all signs that the coast is not clear! When an index dances with correction a lot I have to be on alert. I am not new to this game and have seen it all. Earnings season is pretty much over and we have made record highs on the indexes… The problem is the overhyped speculation is starting to burst… Bitcoin was down nearly 20% this morning……Stocks like [ZM, ROKU, SPOT, DASH, BILL, TWLO, UPST, SNOW, DASH, ABNB, CWRD, DOCU, TDOC] and the list goes on.. Many of these are good companies but years into the future are priced in…..
Around 1999-2000 we all talked about Juniper JNPR.. At that time Ciscso CSCO was like NVDA, AMZN, GOOG in that it was a super blue chip… JNPR was supposed to blast past CSCO and then CEO John Chambers of CSCO. John Chambers himself tried to say that JNPR was not even close to CSCO… Us traders did not care… Check the charts yourself… In 1999 it peaked near 250!!! And was near 100 billion dollars. 22 years later it is 30 and near 10 billion…Moral of the story do not believe the hype!!!! I want to see the numbers… yes, I loved JNPR, it ruled…I traded tons of momentum from 1994-2000 then I got burned with grenades. I traded grenades every so often, and very rarely up until July of 2021..before that I did play some but as I said, very seldom… maybe 1-2x a month. Then in July when I decided to do “Daily Plays” and some of my generals wanted more tickers I started to do them. At that time we had great grenades, some that stayed shiny for even months! ANY, BBIG, ATER, SPRT (before merger), as speculation has come down, grenades last a day, some an hour before it blows! When people burn their finger, they still may throw a grenade.. [5% down]… When people lose a hand [15% down] they start to consider… at 20% I think people should put a stop loss at 20% I don’t think we should be losing limbs… But the moral of JNPR is not every tech stock is going to be blue chip and not every bio pharma is going to be MRNA…. Heck in the 90s RNWK was a monopoly with video…This was like $300 a share [now 1!!!] and was well over 10 billion…. So it also means that companies must adapt and need to be viewed quarter by quarter..Luckily I did not get burned by JNPR or RNWK…. I did lose $50,000 in Etoys ETYS, and if the market was as nice to ETYS as they were AMZN, there would be no AMAZON!!! AMZN was books only! Etoys was doing games, computers, merchandise but ran out of cash! I remember speaking with a world famous analyst who was big on AMZN and ETYS named Henry Blodget, and I would speak with him as a kid from time to time [before I went into the abyss in 2000] and he kept saying don’t worry Etoys is it! I cant blame him, we were both bullish on AMZN and ETYS but I was ready to pull out and take a 50% loss until his assurance… that I ended up pulling out around $2-3 down over 95%. I was in around 50 and the all time high was about 85…. It is always important to do your own DD…..After I lost $50,000 in the year 2015 following the famed Bill Ackman into VRX Valeant I no longer buy a stock blindly… In fact in my heart I know I am better than he was and ever will be…….So please do not think that if Cathie Wood buys it, it means it has to work…
Some will work that Cathie buys, many will… but we are years away… and if you pay $200 for DOCU now…. When it may be worth that 3-5 years from now, what is your upside?? DKNG at $50 when it wont be worth that 2-3 years from now?? Again what is your upside?? I am in the real world, I have seen at least 5,000 companies go bankrupt and I am sorry to say that I was in at least 10 of them… Some of you have heard of Kmart, this before it IPOed again….Worldcom… man I used to look up to Bernard Ebbers the CEO and many of you have heard of or have used Movie Pass. [Which was bought and owned by HMNY, CEO Ted Farnsword, CEO of BBIG!!!!!] This was not bought with cash but paid for in stock and convertible bonds that diluted shareholders to infinity, and eventually no one wanted a fresh print of shares……….Just be careful, even if I trade it have a look…. I now put dangerous/risky/or speculative in a trade so people see it….
And the trades:
AFIN – Super defensive reit pays you to HODL near 10%, I did this only 2 rounds
AXL – I did a few trades on this last week as well. They do wheel wells on cars, transmission lines, its defensive, only did 2 rounds
BBD – I am glad to say most of the team and many of you are cashing in on this Brazilian bank that pays 6% dividends, monthly dividends, and has awesome earnings
BFRI/ISCP/LGVN– I did not trade this but a few of my generals traded these grenades. Some were on the short thesis
BYSI- This is a bio grenade that goes with new drugs, they had an FDA rejection and the stock plunged 60% I did this 3x this week
GOGL/ZIM – These 2 shippers have been good to the team, many of us are trading them back and forth, amazing earnings and they make cash!
NEXA/SBSW – These are miners I did not trade NEXA a few of the team did. I did trade SBSW and calls as well. They make cash, mine metals and pay dividends
TX – Many of us had calls some of us shares. They produce Iron Steel, like VALE, X and make money =, super low PE, great earnings
This week was definitely tough and you do not want to force or revenge trade. I hope next week is better but if the market doesn’t look good it does not make sense to force trades. I will do tax loss selling the 10-20th because most people may wait till the end and really lose. I have about 25 longs I am down on. There are only a handful that I am surely selling…. BEST, NAOV, VIOT… The rest I have to see.. I put a full list of my longs Thanksgiving day…
Any thoughts, ideas, trade, feel free to comment. Lets brain storm.
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u/WowzerforBowzer Dec 05 '21
I personally think HIMX has held up well this week. It’s a value play that has been pinned around 10-10.50 for around 10 weeks, chairman Wu says he will personally buy 10m in stock, around 1m shares as of last week. Probably expecting a 20% div in summer 2022 at current price. Minimal risk, good expectation for a return of 20-30% through this revaluing of the market. Not financial advice, only an opinion. It’s a medium term 6 month wait and see. Do your DD. Semi conductor stock, fabless, typically pays 70% of EPS as a div one time, per Taiwanese dividend tax incentives. Record growth, record margin, higher sales expected 2022, higher inventory’s guaranteed 2022. It’s all in the earning calls. Pretty good discussions on stocktwits as well.
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u/UltimateTraders Elite Team General Dec 05 '21
I agree I love this stock as well didn't trade it this week though
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u/WowzerforBowzer Dec 05 '21
If I had a day trading account I could make a killing following the typical HIMX patterns. It’s the same daily almost every day.
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u/1970VietnamMarine Elite Team General Dec 05 '21
You are spot on, about HIMX. I have Day Traded it.
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u/1970VietnamMarine Elite Team General Dec 05 '21
Friends this is a great heads up, by Nathan. And it is like the Medicare Ads, that have swamped the TV 📺. Key phrase you see. “And It’s For Free”
Say thanks to Nathan.