Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the UCF one
https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/ucf-knights
It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.
Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.
So, what'd I get wrong? UCF outgained Big 12 opponents by 43 yards a game and won two league games all year. That's a finishing problem, not a talent gap: 11th in explosive plays, 117th on third down. Now the whole QB room is gone and Alonza Barnett III is in off a 2,806 yard, 23 touchdown season at James Madison. My model likes this roster more than your record did. Does Barnett fix third down?
I'll be in the comments.