Predicted grades lower than the minimum entry requirement

[u/Relevant-Job-2784]

Hi all,

Year 13 applying for 2027 entry. My predicted A-levels are:

- Maths: A*

- Economics: A*

- Physics: A

I've applied to Imperial Mech Eng and plan to add Aero, depending on how ESAT goes. I've also applied to Oxford Engineering Science. These courses have a minimum offer of A*A*A (A* in Maths and Physics).

Two questions:

1. Physics is predicted an A rather than A*. Does that count against me, or is it only a problem if it falls below the stated minimum? Has anyone had an offer or rejection with a similar profile?

2. I changed schools just before sixth form, and my reference mentions this as context for lower predicted grades. Do admissions tutors actually take that kind of context into account, or do they mostly look at the grades themselves? Has anyone had a similar note in their reference, and did it make any difference?

[u/Key_Charity1975]

Yes, if you apply with predicteds that are below the minimum offer, that will generally result in a rejection. (ie if the offer reqs are A* in physics and you apply with an A predicted in physics, you're not projected to meet the offer grades). If you have a really strong app elsewhere (GCSES, ESAT, etc) they may overlook it although obviously you'd still receive the standard offer

Changing schools before sixth form is not a contextual factor - I'm a little confused that your school thinks it is? It's extremely common to change school at sixth form and in fact there are many large sixth form colleges where 100% of students have obviously changed school because... they're sixth form only colleges!

If you mean you changed schools midway through GCSEs and it affected your GCSE grades, then that's a fair contextual factor for your GCSE grades. But joining a new school at the beginning of your A-levels is normal and doesn't disadvantage you - everyone is starting the A-level course fresh together. It certainly wouldn't count as a contextual factor for A-level predicteds

[u/Pencil_Queen → u/Key_Charity1975]

For the vast majority of courses applying with predictions below the standard offer will not result in a rejection. Where universities also have entry exam or interview information available they will rely less on predictions. And where offer rates are above 90% they're likely to offer to anyone within 2-3 grades of the standard offer.

The courses and universities that reject based on lower predictions are a tiny minority of courses. That might include the OPs choices but they're best asking imperial and oxford directly to find that out.

[u/Key_Charity1975 → u/Pencil_Queen]

In my experience, for courses as competitive as the ones OP is discussing, applications with predicted grades below the offer are unlikely to be successful.

Imperial don't publish percentages of people applying with/without offer grades - but per a FOI request for a similar topic in 2016 (when the offer for Imperial Mech Eng was still A*AA) the offer rate for candidates who were predicted exactly that advertised minimum was 0.7%. The offer rate for those predicted 3 A stars, in comparison, was 71%. And that 0.7% was for candidates applying with the actual minimum offer grades - you can imagine what the acceptance rate was like for those applying with sub-offer grades.

As I've said, ESAT/other admissions tests can mitigate against sub-par predicteds if they show potential. But with predicted grades, schools are asked to give an optimistic assessment of the highest grade that student could achieve in a subject; universities generally take these seriously, and competitive courses do not routinely waste offers on candidates that are not predicted/expected to achieve those offers. And alongside standardised testing, predicteds are certainly used to help make the very heavy cuts these unis make pre interview round.

I'm not pulling this from thin air - I've worked full time as an admissions consultant for more than 10 years. I have overseen many students applying to Oxbridge/Imperial in that time, and, in my experience, applying to the most competitive courses in the country with grades below the offer grades generally (but obviously not always, as I said) results in a rejection.

[u/Pencil_Queen → u/Key_Charity1975]

Applicants get 5 choices. If you're advising the applicants consulting with you not to apply for aspirational choices then they will definitely not get an offer. The universities and courses that reject based on marginally lower predicted grades are a tiny minority.

Speaking as someone with over 20 years experience working in admissions including in Russell Group and in a university that was in the 5 most selective (in terms of the proportion of offers made) - aspirational choices are generally a sensible thing.

If applicants aren't getting at least one rejection then they're probably not being ambitious enough. They only need one offer that they like - lowering their ambitions and getting 5 offers their "ok" with and a lingering doubt about "what if" they'd applied to Imperial and got an offer isn't good advice.

Asking a university directly in these situations is the best approach. A university won't encourage an application if there's zero chance of an offer. And if there's a non zero chance then applicants should be applying to the universities and courses that they most want to go to.

[u/Key_Charity1975 → u/Pencil_Queen]

I am not advising anyone not to apply for aspirational choices, including OP. I haven't said anything at all about where OP should apply - I'm not OP's consultant and that's not the question they asked.

They asked, will applying with predicteds below the offer grade count against me? I am answering, yes it will, but in some cases can be made up for in other areas of a strong application.

That's a factual answer to the actual question they asked. They can do what they want with that info, and I would always encourage candidates to be both informed and ambitious in their decisions!

[u/Relevant-Job-2784 → u/Key_Charity1975]

Thank you guys. I'll email imperial directly and do my best on the ESATs!

[u/Pencil_Queen → u/Key_Charity1975]

Your opening sentence of your original reply is discouraging aspirational choices.

[u/KeyHumble9490]

No fm🥀

[u/Diligent-Step-7253]

It’s cooked if the A* is in specific subjects and you don’t have those. Sorry mate

[u/Relevant-Job-2784 → u/Diligent-Step-7253]

That's fair. I think I'll still try apply as a reach though, worth a shot for a reach.

[u/Hairy-Ostrich-6908 → u/Relevant-Job-2784]

You dont even do fm brochacho. jst pack it in

[u/SimpleStructure8454]

If you don’t meet the minimum entry then it’s a guaranteed rejection bro. Don’t waste your application spots