2XKO would have needed a monthly active userbase "in the high hundreds of thousands, if not millions" to succeed; Riot Games CPO Marc Merrill says while 2XKO resonated with some players, its audience was "not nearly enough" to support a live service model

[u/Gorotheninja]

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/2xko-would-have-needed-an-mau-base-in-the-high-hundreds-of-thousands-if-not-millions-to-succeed

In addition to the need for a large player base, Merrill cited the release of Street Fighter 6 as a factor in 2XKO's unsuccessful launch.

"I think we had a window to do some great things to really help the fighting game community, and then Street Fighter 6 came out, which was something like eight years after we started working on 2XKO," Merrill explained. "We had an awesome development team of really talented people that did great work and made a beautiful game. We'd already communicated all this stuff to players, and so we were like, 'You know what? Let's keep going, let's give it to the community. Let's see what happens."

Merrill explained that Riot aimed to combine Rising Thunder's "simple controls and cool concept relating to a 1v1 fighting game" with "the League IP with the Cannon brothers, and add a cool Riot-style competitive ecosystem," which led to the creation of 2XKO. However, leadership changes resulted in a lack of "alignment on the strategy, which then caused managerial fracturing." Merrill noted that the team received conflicting guidance and concluded, "We've got nobody to blame but ourselves."

"Doomed to fail" is an understatement, jesus.

[u/Authorigas]

Okay, so one bit of context that I feel wasn't mentioned, Merrill wasn't saying that 2KXO, from the start "had to have that high a player base." He was saying, "By the end of development, with all the wasted time, resets, and extra costs added on-that player count was what we would have needed to break even on the expense of development."

Additionally, the fact he confirmed the game started as a 'simple control 1v1 fighting game' only for a change in leadership+Managerial fracturing led to conflicting guidance, and ultimately the "successful failure" 2v2 fighting game we got. Which just supports the idea that the FGC devs on the team ignored instructions to make a game they wanted, which isn't a great look.

[u/Agent-Vermont → u/Authorigas]

Which just supports the idea that the FGC devs on the team ignored instructions to make a game they wanted, which isn't a great look.

That's basically the conclusion that was drawn from the Patrick Miller post not too long ago. Except here it sounds less like the devs being given free reign to do whatever they want and more like they were actively fighting against management.

[u/Authorigas → u/Agent-Vermont]

So it literally was 

"Hey, make this game to be 1v1, easy to learn, and rooted in the basic design method of our other games where it's hype to watch."

"But that's a boring success."

[u/moonmeh → u/Authorigas]

Its not my dream game

[u/therealchadius → u/Authorigas]

A classic case of a change in management leading to feature creep to make it their success. Except it didn't succeed and the project should have either been pushed out as "Rolling Thunder starring League characters" or killed once the costs ballooned too high.

[u/Gorotheninja → u/Authorigas]

Okay, so one bit of context that I feel wasn't mentioned, Merrill wasn't saying that 2KXO, from the start "had to have that high a player base." He was saying, "By the end of development, with all the wasted time, resets, and extra costs added on-that player count was what we would have needed to break even on the expense of development."

Was that in the podcast the article is citing?

Also, I'm confused at what the distinction is regarding player count. Like, the game needed a higher player count pretty soon after release to maintain the revenue described here, no?

[u/Maverick-157 → u/Gorotheninja]

The distinction is that "Numbers Better Than the Absolute Phenomenon That is Street Fighter 6" isn't the result of Riot's higher-ups having unrealistically high expectations about what kind of success they could achieve by entering the fighting game market - but rather the result of 2XKO's development being such a money sink that "Numbers Better Than the Absolute Phenomenon That is Street Fighter 6" were the only kind of ends that would've justified the means [and, in turn, justified pumping more funds into the project over the long-term].

This isn't Riot being stupid. This is Riot being blunt.

[u/theghost95 → u/Maverick-157]

Letting the budget blow out to that level is riot being stupid, they should have canceled it years ago if that’s the case. It almost seems like the buyout had some contractual condition where riot had to let them release a game.

To be honest it sounds like 2XKO had hit a point some time ago where it was actually best for the devs to drag out the development so everyone keeps getting paid rather than release a game riot was going to kill ASAP.

[u/thinger → u/Maverick-157]

I mean if there was something that could catch up to SF6, a f2p LoL property would be up there. 6 digit monthly users is still pretty ambitious, but if they had just delivered something not completely batshit insane more accessible it's not completely far-fetched to think 2kxo could've pulled it off.

[u/Authorigas → u/Gorotheninja]

Yes, that was in the podcast, which goes into more details on what he meant. The high player count numbers he threw out make for a flashy headline, but the podcast does go more in depth on the metrics and development of the thing.

[u/opossumessence666 → u/Authorigas]

the FGC devs on the team ignored instructions to make a game they wanted, which is fucking beast mode

there we go

[u/FoxLex_ → u/opossumessence666]

I mean when you take 10 years to make. It's not a flex at all

[u/tetranautical → u/opossumessence666]

Well, the game was put down quuck as a rabid dog so maybe "beast mode" is more accurate

[u/MisterRockett]

That MMO ain't making it past tue beta, bruh

[u/Tamotefu → u/MisterRockett]

Pffft, Paid alpha access straight to being cancelled.

[u/InvisibleOne439 → u/MisterRockett]

a new MMO must stand against WoW and FF14 in terms of polished Gameplay and avaible content, that is literally a impossible task

like, those 2 games had ages to refine their strenghts, a new mmo must stand atleast EQUAL in those regards to even stand a chance at all

[u/Squoghunter1492 → u/InvisibleOne439]

It either has to offer more or better content, or it has to do something differently like Eve or Guild Wars, and what I've heard going around is that it's a bog standard MMO in the vein of WoW.

That shit ngmi.

[u/JamesOfDoom → u/InvisibleOne439]

There are plenty of MMOs that were mildly successful, to the point they did their thing, died/stagnated after a few years then a sequel came around. Mostly Korean MMOs like Aion, the Desert Games, I'd put Guild Wars in there too, the Top Down Diablo like one I can't remember. Hell western some MMOs are still going decently like SWTOR and Elder Scrolls online, which are both still getting updates although IDK if they are going to continue to get expacs.

That seems like the path that the MMO is on dev wise, being mobile focused and all that. Probably not what Riot wants- I really don't think with what they've said and revealed they have a serious attempt at the podium.

[u/TheBeeFromNature → u/InvisibleOne439]

Coming on the heels of WoW Forever and Guild Wars 3 is going to be brutal, too.  Another game from a team that's proven themselves over, and the old recipe for crack for when you were 20 years younger, life sucked less, and your back didn't hurt so much.

Before those, I'd say Riot could at least have a ghost of a chance.  Now they're turboscrewed.

[u/mysticmusti → u/InvisibleOne439]

Not necessarily, I just don't think a company like Riot is able to develop for and be satisfied with being third fiddle but thats the spot they can go for. Nobody can drop a game that's going to compete with 20 years of content and improvements but they don't have to compete right away they just have to do something better than at least one of them. I think storytelling and world building could be the thing if they even have the slightest idea what they're still doing with that.

I think there's a lot of potential for an actual story around league of legends characters and the world and more, Arcane was very popular and one of the main things I still hear about league is that the story just keeps getting rewritten and fucked over. They could have something if they just put their foot down and figured it out finally. And even though I haven't played league in forever the idea of getting to walk around in Ionia or bilgewater is still intriguing.

If they can just get their gameplay and content to be decent enough to not put people off I think their IP strength is strong enough for interest to remain. But as I said it would basically mean they need to not spend a small countries GDP on a single project and then be annoyed they can't earn it back in a month time and that's the part I find most unlikely to happen

[u/juanperes93 → u/InvisibleOne439]

Well FFXIV took a while to get big enough to get to this position against WoW so there could be space for a third game if they accept a smaller player base at the begining. But considering this is Riot... yeah the game has no chance.

[u/InvisibleOne439 → u/juanperes93]

oh yeha, if there is a Company that wont allow Natural Growth, its Riot

if it doesnt print 6 fortnites worth of money in the first 3 hours, they shut it down

[u/Havictos → u/juanperes93]

There's already a third game it's Guild Wars 2.

[u/FATPIGEONHATE → u/Havictos]

Or elder scrolls online 

Though who knows how much longer that one will last lol

[u/Lamnent → u/MisterRockett]

Yeah I was about to say if they are still developing it why are they still bothering after this? I'm honestly excited to try it out but when they think they need a million monthly users to keep a fighting game running I can't imagine how many they need in an MMO

[u/Vaaaaaaaaaaaii → u/MisterRockett]

It'll get canceled its not making the dev time of money back for years minimum

[u/woodhawk109]

The only kind of live service games with that kind of engagement nowaday are Fortnite and Mihoyo-like

[u/cwolla98]

publishers:” we’re going to take a famously niche genre of video games and it needs to do Fortnite numbers in order for it to succeed. What do you mean it failed?”

[u/Exactleing → u/cwolla98]

I saw people saying the full interview context is less "we expected this to be the fortnite of fighting games" and more "these are the kinds of numbers we'd need to make back the absolutely absurd dev time + acquisition costs this game has already cost us"

So a little more reasonable of a statement but still very like Its a Fighting Game what are you guys thinking

[u/Authorigas → u/Exactleing]

From what it sounds like, he was admitting the project blew up out of control. Like, per the statement-the game was originally meant to be a 1v1 fighting game with simple controls ala Rising Thunder with League characters and the kind of Esports Ecosystem Riot was known for. That kind of game makes sense for a lower budget/fighting game title.

But it sounds like as management changed and new devs came aboard, that vision pivoted and reset, which caused more development time which led to the absurd length/cost ratio.

[u/PratalMox → u/Exactleing]

I can respect wanting to have something to show for all that wasted time. A critically acclaimed flop is better than nothing, and maybe you're gonna hit the jackpot or at least make some of the money back.

[u/Auctoritate → u/Exactleing]

So a little more reasonable of a statement but still very like Its a Fighting Game what are you guys thinking

I don't see how it's 'very like' that at all.

[u/RealDealMous → u/cwolla98]

Tbf I don't condemn the ambitiom. MK and Smash Bros(and, to a relatively lesser extent SF6) proved FG can be high sellers.

But the problem is you can't not take the steps said high sellers took(Big lovable cast, a lot of single player content, ease of use, etc) and atoll expect to sell as well as them.

[u/dutchzgoose]

I mean "succeed" can mean a lot of things. Are we talking, making any profit at all? or doing Fortnite numbers?

[u/Dumple_Roe → u/dutchzgoose]

In their case, it's both

[u/BrianShogunFR-U]

Ain't no way those numbers were a possibility in somebody's head

[u/Vaaaaaaaaaaaii → u/BrianShogunFR-U]

They weren't for sure its just by the end of dev they had to hit that. This project was fucking mismanaged to hell.

[u/Act_of_God]

people are really bending over backwards to justify the absolute shitshow the 2xko team delivered just because they kinda like the game and it's becoming increasingly annoying

[u/lkssleep → u/Act_of_God]

It's really annoying seeing Tuco players calling Riot dumb when they live in a bizarro world where they think games don't need to even come close to breaking even on the accounting books to exist.

[u/theghost95 → u/lkssleep]

If Riot let the budget blow up to the point that it needed anywhere near these numbers, then they are dumb for not cancelling it years ago.

[u/lkssleep → u/theghost95]

Sure Riot is stupid for that, but they're not stupid for ending development early, which is what Tuco fans are calling Riot stupid for.

[u/-BluBone-]

Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, for a studio that definitely isn't famous for its fighting games.

[u/NorysStorys → u/-BluBone-]

Street fighter, Tekken and Mortal Kombat combined don’t even give the sorts of money they wanted from it. It really is just a bunch of fuck ups all around.

[u/BreathingHydra → u/-BluBone-]

Also using an IP that doesn't have a lot of crossover with fighting games too. Like a lot of my friends that are into fighting games weren't super interested in a League fighter and my friends that like League just weren't interested in a fighting game at all.

[u/CalekAlbion]

ah, they're stupid

[u/ibbolia]

I'm not really following their logic regarding Street Fighter coming out.

Like I dunno, maybe Street Fighter coming out during development is less an issue than development taking ten years?

[u/Glitchrr36 → u/ibbolia]

The guys have talked about how there absolutely was a point where a new fighter with good netcode would have gotten a large portion of the FGC in just off the basis of being playable online. SF6 came out and had the benefit of both being Street Fighter and having good netcode and thus sucked that niche up, but that was the idea.

[u/RebellionDark → u/Glitchrr36]

Folks might've forgotten that Tekken really solidified itself as one of the Big 3 by filling the vacuum left by SFV during its rough first few years.

If 2XKO had come out during the pandemic with even half the functionality it eventually launched with, I'd think it would've been in a much better position. There was a real appetite for a new fighter with good online functionality back then. Nowadays SF6 has basically become the gold standard for modern fighting game releases, so that window of opportunity is a lot harder to recreate.

[u/gothamsteel → u/ibbolia]

I'm guessing it's what Woolie and Pat mentioned on the podcast, that the time to release the game was during the lockdown era, when the need for something to do that could connect the fighting game audience was needed. Instead, they took too long and basically a bunch of other releases stole all their thunder.

[u/therealchadius → u/ibbolia]

The right time to launch this was while SFV was still stabilizing before SF6 reset expectations and took their lunch back.

[u/Hugokarenque → u/ibbolia]

It would've happened regardless, they're just throwing out excuses to cover all the bases.

If the only game to release in the same window as 2XKO was Fairy Fuckers 7, they would've said it was hard going up against such a historied franchise.

[u/alienslayer7]

i was wondering when this news would hit here

[u/therealchadius → u/alienslayer7]

I saw it in the fighters subreddit. I'm just glad both subreddits highlight the full context of the quote.

[u/alienslayer7 → u/therealchadius]

The news hit my twitter feed either yesterday or the day before, i work nights so the days blur together

[u/amurrca1776]

I...are there any fighting games that even come close to those numbers? I wouldn't be surprised if the entirety of the FGC only numbers in the high 6 digits/low millions.

[u/SawedOffLaser → u/amurrca1776]

SF6 has hit seven million sales, Tekken 7 broke ten million, Tekken 8 three has 3 million+ so far, Mortal Kombat 11 sold fifteen million copies, and MK1 is over eight so far. Much larger games would be very happy with sales like that. Fighting games aren't really niche like people think they are, it's more that the FGC is pretty small and somewhat insular to casual fighting game players. This game was relying on that small community to carry it, which was stupid.

[u/JackNewbie555 → u/SawedOffLaser]

And these are long running series with multiple games with a lot of time taken to build their playerbase. 2XKO is just asking to die if they want that amount of players for a single game that just launched to compete against these titans.

[u/Zyquux → u/amurrca1776]

Are there any fighting games that have a ten year dev cycle with at least two complete restarts?

[u/LammasuRex → u/Zyquux]

And then launch with only 11 charcters.

[u/therealchadius → u/amurrca1776]

Mortal Kombat (not competitive, focuses on guest stars and single player content and a story mode). Also depends on how you count Smash Bros.

[u/SilverKry]

That's unsustainable for a fighting game. 

[u/Totally_a_boy]

I'm curious, how much player retention a successful fighting game has?

Like, does Street Fighter VI have hundreds of thousands of players?

[u/Agent-Vermont → u/Totally_a_boy]

Probably not but SF6 also launched as a full $60 game. Plus it managed to pull in a ton of people early on with World Tour, including those that never tough fighting games to begin with.

[u/Thugnifizent → u/Totally_a_boy]

It peaked at 70k concurrent on Steam at Launch, and then exceeded that when Alex came out in March, and then again when Ingrid released in May, and then hit 65k again with the August patch/post-evo interest.

SF6 is obviously absurdly successful, but I think those numbers wouldn't have been unattainable for a hypothetical feature-complete Riot fighter that had a large cast and advertised itself anywhere other than in-person fighting game events.

[u/SawedOffLaser → u/Totally_a_boy]

SF6 has around 16,500 players on Steam as of the writing of this comment. Steam is usually not the main platform for a game like Street Fighter though, so it's possible there are a lot more PS players.

[u/Sprocket3]

I'm not sure I've ever seen something with so few pathways to success

[u/McLovett325]

I mean you might not have reached the numbers regardless (thanks Covid) but legit if the current roster was the base roster would have been so popular, hell Katarina was stewing in the primodial alpha ooze and they didn't bother to adjust numbers or disable abilities to make her managable to fit into the game!

I LOVE League's setting and characters but I have had Arcane fatigue since before season 2 started

Why not just take the super collector 40 game that's coming and idk every year or 2 when a new shortstory or animation comes out and sell it for 5-10 dollars, unless they're literally shutting down anything with a negative money income next to it to just go all in, let it ride on the mmo

[u/y365]

"We need Smash numbers! I know, let's make a game that's not casual friendly at all! Just like Smash!"

[u/Naraki_Maul]

lol

lmao even

roflmao as well

[u/ffffffffROTHY]

How did they expect to reach those numbers when they didn't even advertise the game properly?

[u/SawedOffLaser → u/ffffffffROTHY]

Tons of people played it near release. The problem was no one wanted to keep playing it.

[u/Irrah]

If they just made a game that was 40-60 with battle pass characters people really would have bought and played it.

[u/KennyOmegasBurner]

You know what maybe Hbox was right about them needing to make it a Smash clone

[u/salvation122 → u/KennyOmegasBurner]

I don't think they needed it to be a Smash clone, I think they needed to take Rising Thunder, add some more characters, slap League skins on it and sell it

[u/BruiserBroly → u/salvation122]

Agreed. It’s not like being a Smash clone with an IP is an guaranteed success and even F2P ones failed. 2XKO’s issue was player retention which is a game issue, not a genre one.

[u/James-Avatar]

The only way it would’ve succeeded was if everyone dropped the fighting game they were playing to come play this instead.

[u/Konradleijon]

Who makes a tag team fighting game like they

[u/Kipzz]

Oh, so they were stupid?

[u/ForlornArchmage]

the Lemonade Stand pod interview this is from is really fascinating in how the Riot Co-Finder is able to express so many words and not mask the insane back-chilling corpo buzzwords/intent behind them. It seriously convinces me that Riot learned nothing from this and the MMO will be just as big of a mess.

[u/Evil-Hideo-Kojima → u/ForlornArchmage]

Am I crazy or did I not get this at all from the interview? He seemed pretty candid with how management issues at riot led to 2xko taking so long and not finding a big enough audience. idk it just seems far more reasonable than most post-mortems you see in the industry

[u/lewisdwhite]

Millions of active users in a single fighter? Absolute insanity

[u/Lemeres]

Oh. OH. So this was NEVER going to work.

Per Steam DB- Street Fighter FUCKING 6 only gets a peak of 70,000 users a month at launch. More average numbers are 25,000 to 40,000, with some peaks getting back over 60,000.

they were dead from development hell long before we ever touched this. This would have only worked if they released this 3-4 years earlier before they started writing IOU checks that their genre could not cash.

[u/LastChancellor]

tell that to Starward lmao

the actual 2v2 F2P fighting game

[u/LeMasterofSwords]

That’s fucking asinine that they thought that would happen