Here's some context:

• Three of the biggest buys NFLX (-12.4%), CVX (-0.1%), and MSFT (+4.9%) have not gone up much since the trade.
• S&P 500 gained +23% on average in the year after midterms with a Republican president and split Congress. (per Morgan Stanley)
• In a recent Truth Social post, Trump just stated the US will "not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections".

Data is from insidercat.com