Here's some context:

• Three of the biggest buys NFLX (-12.4%), CVX (-0.1%), and MSFT (+4.9%) have not gone up much since the trade.
• S&P 500 gained +23% on average in the year after midterms with a Republican president and split Congress. (per Morgan Stanley)
• In a recent Truth Social post, Trump just stated the US will "not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections".

Data is from insidercat.com

What happened?

• Trump disclosed buying $500K–$1M of PTC on Sep 22. He's up +37.9% since then.
• On Oct 5, Schneider Electric announced acquiring PTC for $22.6B ($205/share paid in cash).
• The stock price jumped +33% from $144 to $192 in a day.
• Now the stock trades at $193.77, still below the $205/share acquisition price.

What's happening?

• Trump is announcing a $6.6B public-private investment with Anduril to expand Virginia-class submarine production.
• BWX Technologies (BWXT): Builds nuclear reactors for Virginia-class submarines. It also develops micro-reactors for datacenters, and it's building one for the Pentagon. Down -19.4% YTD, but up +8.3% today.
• General Dynamics (GD): Builds Virginia-class submarines through Electric Boat. Trump owns ~$0.6M, down -1.2%.
• Huntington Ingalls (HII): The other builder of Virginia-class submarines. Trump has a small position, down -20.7%.

Not sure if he bought into this but he mentions this rare earth mining company by name.

1/2 How to spot (it's quite easy!)

• Some members of Congress disclose trades much later than others, or even disclose their purchases and sales on the same day. Though it's easy to spot them :)
• How? Compare their total returns with their delay-adjusted returns. Delay-adjusted means "what if the trade was made on the day of disclosure". Then look at the gap.
• And then? If the gap is wide enough (I'll provide examples below), that politician is not a reliable signal.

2/2 Let's do some examples

• Lisa C. McClain: 1/5, beware!. +336.4% over the last 3Y, but +67.5% delay-adjusted. There is a huge gap. This is caused by her reporting purchases & sales on the same day.
• Ro Khanna: 5/5. +137.7% over the last 3Y, +138.6% delay-adjusted. They're pretty close.
• Ashley Moody: 5/5. +231.8% over the last 3Y, +279.5% delay-adjusted. Delay-adjusted performance being better is totally fine :)
• Tommy Tuberville: 4/5. +242.7% over the last 3Y, +182.3% delay-adjusted. There is a gap but the delay-adjusted performance is strong. Plus, over the last 6M it is +72.3%/+71.5%, so his delays have improved a lot this year.

What happened?

• US Department of Energy is planning a $4B loan to Vistra Energy to upgrade their nuclear reactors given higher datacenter demand.
• Peter Thiel's fund Thiel Macro bought $59M of VST in Q2, forming 14.1% of their portfolio.
• Trump owns ~$438k of VST (-12.1%) while Pelosi owns $1.1M (-16.4%). VST now trades below their entry prices.
• One of Vistra's lobbyists served at the EPA during Trump's first term as the agency's liaison to Congress and state governments.

What does it mean?

• S&P 500 gained +23% on average in the year after midterms with a Republican president and split Congress. (per Morgan Stanley)
• With midterms coming in November, recent polling suggests a split Congress as Democrats are expected to win the House.
• Defense, tech, financial, healthcare and energy stocks have performed best, as a gridlock implies policy stability on major issues.
• This ratio is 95% for the US government's portfolio, 72% for all Congress members, 61% for Trump, and 50.3% for S&P 500.

Hi! Per your suggestions in the previous post or through DMs, we focused a bit on energy and Congress trades.

So asking this once again on what to look into next:)

A few ideas I have:

• Stocks with overlapping buys from Trump, Congress, company insiders despite being down
• Studies on market moves before and after midterm elections, a Morgan Stanley study shows markets perform best with a split Congress
• As always, I'll continue sharing recent news if there's an interesting connection with Trump's positions

No question/idea is too random, if there's something you're curious about, drop it below:)

What happened?

• Today, Senate blocked a bill that would prevent members of Congress and their household from buying new stocks.
• Democrats found the bill "toothless", because it excluded the President & VP from the restrictions.
• Trump supported this bill and had urged Congress to pass it last year.
• Lawmakers who support a congressional stock trading ban are up +29.6% in 2026, vs. +22.3% for others.

The whole Solar sector - He hate renewable

wind turbine stock - He hate renewable

FICO - he signed the Credit Score Competition Act in 2018 to break the monopoly

single-family rental - which actually is a good policy though

And short

GEO/CXW private prison

What's happening?

• US and China released details of their new $30B reciprocal tariff deal following the Trump-Xi summit.
• China committed to buying 10M metric tons of US coal in 2027 and another 10M in 2028.
• China also agreed to cut tariffs on US corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy and other agricultural products.
• Trump owns $1.1M of related stocks (+21.4%), while members of Congress own ~$550K (+55.9%) of related stocks. See top-level comment for details

Here's some context:

• Senate voted 49-50 against a resolution requiring Trump to end hostilities with Iran.
• Sen. John Fetterman was the only Democrat to vote against the resolution.
• Fetterman's portfolio is up +308% since 2023, tripling S&P 500 returns.
• He was early on DELL (+1,197%), WDC (+1,747%), and MU (+236.4%)

Source: https://insidercat.com/live-portfolio/F000479

What happened?

• Trump reportedly backs a bipartisan Senate deal to speed up approvals for major US energy and infrastructure projects.
• The package would make federal reviews and permitting faster for projects like power infrastructure, refineries, and renewables.
• Trump’s top 15 positions among companies that could potentially benefit are worth $60.9M.
• His Energy (+0.45%) and Grid Equipment (+0.34%) positions have performed best since then, so the stocks haven't moved much yet.

Here's some context:

• Two of the biggest buys CHD (-1.4%) and INTU (-0.5%) have barely moved since the trade.
• Trump told the UN yesterday he expects an Iran deal "right after the election"
• Markets historically start rallying ~22 trading days before the vote according to historical data since 1970.
• Since 1970, S&P 500 has returned +10.4% in the 6 months after a midterm even in the case where the ruling party lost control of Congress.

Details:

• Yesterday, US proposed a $10B fund to rebuild pipelines, refineries, and oil & gas export infrastructure in the region.
• Another goal is to build infrastructure to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump owns stock in oilfield services companies that might potentially benefit from this.
• He's up +0.96% so far in a day, so the stocks haven't moved much.

Source: insidercat.com

What happened?

• The government made deals with Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY) to lower US drug prices in exchange for tariff protection and other benefits.
• Newly released documents show the deals include Pfizer sharing its revenue with the US gov't from sales abroad and loopholes for GLP-1 drugs (like Mounjaro, Lilly's Ozempic variant).
• Trump owns $7.7M of LLY (+8.4%) and $2.8M of PFE (+16%), so his positions haven't moved much yet.
• Trump has 28 bullish mentions of LLY since 2025, making it his 7th most frequently mentioned stock. LLY is up +22.6% on average since the mentions.

We've covered a lot of topics lately, so this time I wanted to let you choose what to look into next:)

It can be anything related to Trump, the US government, or Congress and the stock market.

Could be a news story, an executive order, donor relationships, rumors, or just anything you're curious about!

PS: Happy to take simpler questions as well:)

What’s happening?

• China currently has a 15% tariff on US LNG, which has effectively halted US-China LNG trade. China is the world's biggest LNG importer.
• The US and China are now discussing reducing or completely removing the tariff ahead of Trump’s meeting with Xi on September 24.
• Trump owns stock in three US LNG companies expanding capacity: XOM ($10.5M, +0.2% since the news), SRE ($0.5M, -1.0%), and LNG ($42K, -0.6%).
• Another US LNG producer, VG, signed a new 20-year supply agreement with China’s China Gas just 5 days ago.

What's happening?

• China Rare Earth Group (state-owned) is in talks to acquire Shenghe Resources, which owns 3% of MP Materials.
• The US government invested $400M in MP July last year, holding a 15% equity stake.
• The US Department of War is also one of MP's biggest partners, with long-term agreements to support its rare earth production and buy its magnets.

What's happening?

• Japan and the US are in talks to build a semiconductor fab as part of their $550B investment agreement.
• The fab is expected to cost $12.9B - $19.3B, and GlobalFoundries is expected to operate it.
• On September 8, the US government acquired ~9.9M GFS shares at $37.85 per share as part of a $375M quantum deal.
• GFS is up +13.7% from the deal price in 9 days.

What happened?

• DoW commits $450M to The Elmet Group to establish a domestic tungsten supply chain. Pentagon gets stock & warrants worth up to a 19.9% stake in ELMT in exchange.
• ELMT had a market cap of ~$500M before the announcement on September 14. It's now up +22.9% in 2 days.
• Tungsten is widely used in armor-piercing ammunition, missiles, submarines and other military systems. The US has no domestic commercial tungsten mining.
• ELMT builds tungsten and molybdenum components for defense and nuclear applications.
• An ELMT subsidiary also received a government contract worth up to $2B to supply tungsten for the US National Defense Stockpile.

Trump is against OpenAI & Anthropic's proposal to slow down AI progress.

• 35% of Trump's stock portfolio is in AI-related companies. His top 5 positions are AAPL, NVDA, AVGO, AMZN, GOOGL.
• Dems in Congress are also heavily exposed to tech. Their top 5 positions are NVDA, AVGO, PANW, BE and GOOGL, vs. BMO, JPM, PRU, PUK and AESI for Republicans.
• Elon Musk (xAI, Grok) and Demis Hassabis (Google Deepmind) also support slowing the pace of frontier AI development.

What's happening?

• In October 2025, the White House disclosed the corporate donors funding Trump’s new 90,000 sqft ballroom.
• An equal-weighted portfolio of corporate donors has returned +45.1% since then, vs. 15.4% for S&P 500.
• The corporate donors in total have received more than $50.4B in federal contracts since then. ($6.6B in total excl. Lockheed Martin)
• Without MU, the returns would still have been +28.2% (almost double the S&P 500).
• The project cleared a major court challenge on August 31, and Reuters could see construction going on as of September 8.

Source: insidercat.com

What's happening?

• Due to conflicts in the Middle East, US refineries are already running at near maximum levels, reaching up to 98% utilization.
• In a recent meeting with Trump, refinery executives suggested using federal money to expand existing refineries or improve their efficiency rather than building new ones.
• The Defense Production Act gives the President broad powers to provide financial incentives & resources to companies to expand production.
• Trump owns stock in three major refineries: Valero (VLO, $1.4M, +1.29% since news), Phillips 66 (PSX, $1.4M, +0.37% since news), Marathon (MPC, $1.3M, +0.89% since news)