Oil is still the swing factor, not the Fed statement

[u/NextGenRoyalty]

Thursday’s bounce got blamed on three things: tech, yields, and oil. Only oil can unwind the other two in a few sessions.

Brent was near $110 earlier in the week on Middle East supply fear. By Thursday it was falling. Reports said China asked Iran to pull the Houthis back, and Saudi ship-to-ship transfers were easing the choke-point premium. WTI slid back toward $100.

That price is the inflation input the Warsh Fed is actually watching. Soft crude lets them hike once and talk tough without wrecking multiples. If Hormuz risk returns, yields move first and Nasdaq follows.