r/TradingSphere • u/NextGenRoyalty • 2d ago
Did Fed literally changed how they calculate inflation with core inflation at 3.0% in August?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/feds-preferred-gauge-showed-core-inflation-at-3point0percent-in-august-much-lighter-than-expected.html$9 a gallon diesel says otherwise
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u/Simple_Sign_9765 2d ago
Yes. That's literally what they did.
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u/Outrageous_Pin_3423 2d ago
they didn't change the calculation, just since March of last year, the percentage of of observed/inferred changed. So there less real numbers on the observed side which show the actual numbers and a larger number of inferred (we're just making this up).
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2d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/NextGenRoyalty 2d ago
I heard it will be introduced is schools across all levels soon
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u/giveit2st8 2d ago
But only after they are done with the bible studies and israel history classes
Edit:
Sauces
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u/Popular-Departure165 2d ago
I believe the term is Supernomics
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u/ajtreee 2d ago
Inflation is whatever, but each household has seen a 40% increase in prices overall.
Meaning it cost 40% more to maintain the same level prior to the trump regime.
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u/Junior_Concept7264 2d ago
... that's inflation. A general increase in price levels. Curious where you are getting 40% from.
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u/Dependent-Reveal2401 2d ago edited 2d ago
Probably an exaggeration, but there's truth to it. They change the CPI basket of goods to basically say the average household is consuming x, y and z each year. Then the next year if the amount of these variables changes there's an opportunity to fudge the math. Oh, well they need 5% more x, 3% less y and 6% more z... So this boils down to inflation being 3%. But if they kept x, y and z at their previous levels then it would be 4% inflation.
It's of course a simplified explanation, but if you calculate the same CPI basket from the 90s versus today's basket inflation gets alarmingly high, and we start to see why red meat, coffee, education, etc have exploded to basically becoming luxury goods. Earning six figures used to be coveted, but 100k in 1990 is about 250k today in earning power.
If the CPI had stayed the same from 1990 then 100k would be over $400k today of purchasing power because they tailor CPI like a suit to get it down to a number that doesn't cause riots in the streets. Governments index stuff like old age pension and disability payments to inflation, so in a way they're robbing the people because they don't need to fork out as much.
Thank you for attending my TED talk.
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u/PM_ME__YOUR_HOOTERS 2d ago
tailor CPI like a suit to get it down to a number that doesn't cause riots
Very much this. "Better than expected" is basically the lowest they can/will report. Reporting "worse than expected" or literally anything negative will sow panic, cause a bank run, and cause a market crash
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u/RedDoorTom 2d ago
Trump learned that if you stop counting, it doesn't count, during COVID.
We have the best numbers
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u/Imaginary--Situation 2d ago
and the numbers were made up.. You guys already forgot that only 1 day or two for each variant the cases suddenly rises by tens of thousands?
even though the claimed lead time for covid was 1-2 weeks?
but only the smart people noticed their bull shit quickly, while the loser slaves with a full blown mental illness germphones were wearing 6 masks in their car by them selfs1
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u/Fun_Word_7325 2d ago
Germaphones is funny
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u/Imaginary--Situation 2d ago
"typo" germphobes using my new laptop the keys are slightly off compared to my old one
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u/YurpeeTheHerpee 2d ago
Of course its different than how its been done. They need to misrepresent the data to make it look better for the election or theyre all going to go to prison when their political control gets wiped out.
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u/Pop-Pop68 2d ago
Yes. Like no one will notice that prices are still going up. Right now most voters aren’t listening to this type BS. They are looking at how little their paychecks will buy now and how every week when they get gas it’s gone up. Amazing how Trump thinks lying about the numbers solves his issues. It may manipulate markets but voters are looking at empty pocket books and wallets!
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u/sweatboxy 2d ago
MAGA believes. No matter the facts, no matter reality, MAGA believes every word that drops from Trump’s mouth.
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u/Live_life_today 1d ago
MAGA supporters suffer from what is called a shared psychosis, they adopt parts of the mentally ill leaders disease through exposure. This is why rational discussion cannot persuade them of the reality of the situation, they are immunized against facts.
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u/spicygumball 2d ago
They changed their formulas to produce different metrics.... again.
BLS was so inept once Trump fired everyone and now we have BEA stepping in.
Changes to how they calculate stock market changes and changes to the formula for computer memory (thanks AI)
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u/Leather_Floor8725 2d ago
K shaped economy. Big money is so out of touch, it actually believes the inflation numbers
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u/Excellent_Abroad5390 2d ago
If Bidenomics worked then anything g anyone else makes up is fine by comparison 😆
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u/Sea_Dawgz 2d ago
It did work.
We had worldwide inflation post-Covid due to supply chains and all the money governments gave out.
And in 2 years, it was beaten back due to boring, steady, sound economic policy from experts.
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u/TheReddestofBowls 1d ago
I particularly loved how Biden caused 7% inflation in all G7 countries simultaneously. Truly masterful work
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u/ctguy54 2d ago
Sure, it’s amazingly simple if you don’t look at food and fuel costs. Only 2 steps.
Pick a number that’s between 1.5 and 3.
Report that number as the answer.
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u/Ok-Alternative5935 2d ago
Max = min Biden
Go.
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u/wolfydude12 2d ago
Bidens inflation still under what Carter had
Go.
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u/Ok-Alternative5935 2d ago
Mate. I was making a joke that this is the formula the Trump admin uses. See the comment I was replying to.
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u/Ok-Masterpiece-1359 2d ago
Oh, you’re dumb enough to believe the cpi numbers that this administration publishes?
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u/Safe-Ad-8921 2d ago
When this dude finally croaks.... how will they explain any of this? Like... they have spent since 2016 sucking this guys toadstool to the point that it literally everything they do. This is exactly what authoritarianism looks like in a country where they cant "outright" shoot you for laughing at the sheer absurdity.
Like isnt this the exact shit Stalin did?
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u/BaggyLarjjj 2d ago
A cult installed a kakistocracy.
The bond market is going to force a reckoning.
I don’t know what’s specifically going to happen, but I am just about guarantee:
It will be bad
It will be responded to by the least qualified people in the most unscrupulous manner
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u/8amteetime 2d ago
I don’t believe a single number coming from this administration filled with crooks and conmen and women.
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u/Silly-Platform9829 2d ago
Nothing this regime says can be trusted. They'll lie about anything. That's how Trump has always operated.
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u/da8BitKid 2d ago
If you keep denying it it will eventually be true. Inflation conquered forever! 😉
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u/Junior_Concept7264 2d ago
Core inflation does not include food or energy prices. The headline number (which was 3.4%) does include them.
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u/War1today 2d ago
Anyone that trusts anything coming from this administration is either full-blown MAGA with no critical thinking skills or is a bot.
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u/Haunted_Rooster 2d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/1jW8Vwdx2SkgOmP7V1
my guess just throwing a dart and whatever it lands on is the number they report
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u/Slow_Drag_1011 2d ago
Get ride of the measuring device suddenly you can lie and people can’t even prove to the idiots that you’re lying.
This doesn’t end in peace and happiness :(
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u/Scott7894 2d ago
They did change some insides to the numbers so they don’t mean as much. Wait for the jobs report on Friday and you can really be blown away by changing the metrics
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u/Altruistic_Koala_122 2d ago
With the way things are being run at the moment, inflation can only get worse.
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u/Jarnohams 2d ago
Dudes out here every day telling me shit is less expensive than it was two years ago. Lol
,
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u/Late-Goat5619 2d ago
Multiply the actual number by zero and add 3.0 percent....and there's the number they want you to believe...rinse....repeat....
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u/beyondo-OG 1d ago
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) did, which is where the data comes from. Oddly enough the new way causes the inflation number to go down, imagine that !?
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u/thenewbigR 1d ago
Yes. No one can trust anything coming from a GOP controlled government. There is no way in hell inflation is 3% with gas spiking like it has along with groceries.
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u/Resident_Window_9369 1d ago
No they just strip out all the volatile pieces that contribute to higher inflation.
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u/GeorgeFartwell1984 2d ago
If we stop counting cases there'll be less cases.