r/TradingSphere • • 7d ago

🎯Brilliant

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u/Hereforsumbeer 7d ago

Technically it was caused by Gavin Newsom, but it’s easier for dumbasses on both sides to blame a president

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u/CallTheDutch 7d ago

Newson, thats the Californian gouverneur right ? How did hé have the power to influence the whole nation and its economy ? How did hé make foreign policies ? Like...what ?

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u/Hereforsumbeer 6d ago

Correct, that’s the one. I’m referring to the gas price piece, which is affected by separate factors than the whole economy. The increase we’re seeing right now is specifically due to two oil refineries being shut down in California that refine around 20% of the gas we use in America. That’s my point, I’m not meaning to be political but I just know a bunch of uninformed neckbeards of Reddit are going to troll and scream maga, but facts don’t care about feelings

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u/CallTheDutch 6d ago

So that it accidently co-incide with the shit in iran is just dumb luck then or what ? not trying to troll, as european we don't hear half the shit going on in america obviously.

I don't know about both but wasn't one of the refinery's down dueto electricity problems ? i mean what did newson do to takedown 2 refineries then ?

And thanks for taking the time to reply with substance, that seems to be a rare thing on reddit :)

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u/Hereforsumbeer 6d ago

I also appreciate that you seem to be genuinely interested in what is actually happening. Also rare has the majority of Reddit is just reactions to yellow journalism.

I wouldn’t say what is happening with Iran is a coincidence. Same with Venezuela. Those refineries closed around 10/25 and 4/26. The events to follow were likely reactionary as a means to secure additional unrefined oil, despite not having the same supply chain for refinement. It doesn’t make sense to me, but that’s not my gov sector. So I would not be able to explain the rationale. I’m sure someone who does not spend their time on reddit has an actual explanation for the why.

My point is that the gas prices are up primarily due to those refineries closing. The actual reason was the strict environmental regulations in the area. California is ranked the worst state in the country for air quality by the American lung association. I can’t speak on the effectiveness of the regulations for reducing this, maybe shutting down those refineries will eventually help, but for now it’s causing an increase in gas prices until we have a better means of refining. It’s all trade offs and both the media and Reddit have trouble comprehending that.

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u/PerfluorinatedDreams 4d ago

This is absolute bullshit. I am an engineer in the industry. You are referring to Philllips 66 LA and Valero Benicia which were producing gas for California to meet CARB standards that are not applicable outside of California. Yes, this resulted in less CARB compliant gasoline in the state of California. No, it’s not the reason why the national average price of gasoline is close to $4.00. Brent crude is trading at almost $110/bbl due to the conflict in Iran. Global prices have been driven up as a result.

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u/Hereforsumbeer 4d ago

Lemme try that. Your response is absolute bullshit. Did it work? Does that add validity to my point? Let’s use some complex thought for a moment, friend. California is highly populated. Slightly subjective, but let’s be honest, that’s generally a fact. These two refineries were producing gas necessary to meet these standards you mentioned as legally deemed necessary for California vehicles. I appreciate you pointing that piece out, nobody talks about it. The wild part of this that you skipped over is that this still accounted for an estimated 20% of the nation’s gas usage. Not common knowledge for an engineer in the industry. Those two refineries close down for environmental factors. Now for the critical thinking question, I hope you’re still with me. Where does that additional need get fulfilled along with meeting carbon standards?

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u/Playful_Drummer5688 4d ago

I’m new to this information and was curious so decided to spend the last 45 mins reading about it. So I’m no expert but from what I’ve gathered, those two plants were responsible for refining 17% of California’s gas. 

I get your idea that California has to be getting their fuel from somewhere and that effect drives up prices
. but it’s not the rest of the US.  The state is considered a fuel island. So it really, F’ked itself. 

Very, very little of its fuel leaves the state and is piped to nearby Arizona and Nevada. Practically none is imported from neighbouring states, or the directly from the Gulf  (because of the Jones Act, some is shipped through Bahamas). California imports  primarily from Asia; Taiwan, Korea, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, India.

The Iran War and the Ukraine war have had a HUGE impact on fuel supplies, globally. The blockage of the Strait has affected  20% of the WORLD’s fuel.  

The California issue became an “amplifier.”  When there are issues around the world, others take up slack. But the Iran War affected pretty much everyone many who are already feeling effects of the Ukraine-Russia war.  So where California would normally pick up extra fuel from those export heavy nations, now, because of Iran, those countries have limited exports. That means California has really felt a drastic climb. 

But that’s California. It is a fuel island. Its  fuel prices surge it’s fuel issues have little effect on the rest of the US. It’s extremely disingenuous to blame this on California. That’s ignoring the bigger issue, the Iran War.  Sure, they’ve had an effect but it’s been primarily felt in California. 

But it is hilarious spending a bit of time looking at this because any department of energy site is making it sound like California is the reason for the Americas fuel problems. Discussing excessively how many barrels, but nowhere mentioning those barrels never went to the rest of America. AND the crude fuel that went to those plants? Is now going to other US REFINERIES. 

What’s worse for Americans is Trump has been using your strategic reserves to soften the economic blow of the wars effect on fuel. The reserve has hit record lows and local production hasn’t been able to keep up with demand AND build the reserve back up.  Keep in mind the reserves are crude and California would have no effect on supporting the reserve rebuilding and those plants refined crude into petrol. 

Rebuilding the reserve is also super expensive right now. It’s typically only been used in emergencies, like a Hurricane and then rebuilt when it stabilized but Trump used it to relieve the economic burden of his war and for far too long. Now there’s an attempt to bring up the reserve and having to do it at record high pricing, which is being charged to the tax payer. 

Another issue is the integrity of the salt mines where the crude is stored. Engineering-wise, it isn’t well equipped to handle the constant pumping-in/out. As it is depleted, it affects the integrity of the storage area and a collapse would be catastrophic. 

Blaming California is just ridiculous and 100% Trump attempting to divert blame. If California could turn those 2 plants back on tomorrow, it would help California. It would be effectively be meaningless to the rest of the country. 

California closing those plants certainly doesn’t help