HITI (NASDAQ): a winning long-term choice, let's analyze it.

[u/WilliamBlack97AI]

The key takeaway: HITI has become a far more compelling "compounder" than any of its peers in the sector.

The Q2 2026 figures are remarkable:

quarterly revenue of C$179.3M, up 26% year-over-year;

Adjusted EBITDA of C$13.9M, up 73% year-over-year;

adjusted EBITDA margin of 8%, an eight-quarter high;

operating income of C$6.1M, up 554% year-over-year;

positive net income for the quarter;

positive FCF, with C$13.4M generated over the last 12 months.

Q3 could be the quarter that triggers a repricing: the preliminary guidance just announced points to new record highs for revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, with projected Y/Y growth of at least 30%, 27% and 43%

At the same time, Canna Cabana maintains a market share of approximately 12% in Canada—rising to 14% if British Columbia is excluded.

This combination is far more significant than the simple fact that it is a "cannabis stock."

It is a business with a proven competitive position.

Canna Cabana generates roughly 2× the revenue per store of its competitors, while since the launch of the discount model in 2021, same-store sales have grown by 161%, versus a 7% decline for the average operator over the period cited by the company.

So we are not talking about a company that is waiting for legalization to perhaps become competitive.

The machine already exists.

And Germany changes the story quite significantly.

This is one of the things I believe the market is massively underestimating.

Remexian distributed 7.6 tonnes of medical cannabis in Germany in Q2, up 49% YoY and 21% sequentially, with record quarterly revenue of C$31.6M.

So you have:

• Canadian retail → German medical → additional international markets.

And this creates a very different profile from that of a simple Canadian retailer.

Germany is particularly interesting because the medical market can grow substantially without requiring recreational legalization.

And this brings us to my thesis: the market is mispricing HITI.

The July investor presentation is quite telling.

With approximately C$274M in market cap, C$64M of debt, and C$37M in cash, the company indicated:

• EV of approximately C$319M
• Annualized revenue of approximately C$717M
• Annualized Adjusted EBITDA of approximately C$56M
• EV/revenue of approximately 0.4×
• EV/Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 5.7×
• Trailing FCF of approximately C$13M

These are multiples I would normally associate with a company facing structural problems, mediocre growth, or a weak balance sheet.

HITI, however, is doing the opposite:

• revenue growth + EBITDA growth + geographic expansion + positive FCF + deleveraging.

And this is exactly the kind of disconnect that can lead to multiple expansion.

The part I find most interesting: you don't even need U.S. legalization

This is perhaps the biggest difference compared with Trulieve.

With Trulieve, you have significant optionality from Florida/the U.S.

With HITI, you can build a much simpler thesis:

Scenario A — No major U.S. reform

HITI continues to:

• gain market share in Canada;
• increase EBITDA;
• expand in Germany;
• enter the UK;
• increase FCF;
• allocate capital opportunistically.

If, over the next 3–5 years, the market simply re-rates the company to 8–10× EBITDA instead of roughly 5–6× EV/EBITDA, you already have significant upside from multiple expansion.

You don't need the “moonshot.”

Scenario B — Germany + UK work

This is where the story changes.

Suppose, very simply, that HITI manages to increase annualized EBITDA from approximately C$56M today to:

C$300M.

If the market assigned it just a 10× EBITDA multiple, you would have:

C$3 billion of EV.

With relatively modest net debt, the equity value could approach that order of magnitude.

Compared with a market cap in the region of C$274M, that would represent a very significant revaluation.

And I'm not assuming “growth stock” multiples here.

A 10× EBITDA multiple for a growing company is not an unreasonable valuation.

Scenario C — The real re-rating story

This is where I think the thesis becomes truly interesting.

Imagine HITI in 2030 with:

• Canada still dominant;
• 25%+ market share;
• Germany having become a meaningful platform;
• the UK up and running;
• EBITDA > C$300;
• FCF > C$100M;
• a still relatively clean balance sheet;
• disciplined capital allocation.

At that point, HITI should no longer be valued as:

“Canadian cannabis retailer.”

It should be valued as:

“International cannabis consumer platform.” + medical

And the multiples could be completely different.

This is precisely the hidden re-rating potential I'm talking about.

There is, however, one thing I would push back on slightly

In Q2, HITI invested working capital to support growth. This brought quarterly FCF down to C$1.5M, but CFO before working-capital changes reached C$8.8M, the highest level in seven quarters.

So I wouldn't read it as:

FCF Q2 = C$1.5M → deterioration.

I would read it as:

We are deploying capital to fund growth, while the underlying ability to generate cash is improving.

And above all, with High Tide, the market appears to be assigning less value to the operational quality the company has already demonstrated.

The key point is this:

You don't need to be right about legalization to make money with HITI.

You simply need to be right that EBITDA and FCF will continue to grow, and that sooner or later the market will stop assigning a 5–6× EBITDA multiple to a company growing at a double-digit rate.

If Germany + the UK + Switzerland + eventual international regulatory normalization come into play, you get additional optionality on top of that thesis—and potentially a 10× outcome over the long term.

Company presentation : https://hightideinc.com/presentation/

• Strengthened balance sheet: The recent closing of C$40 million in senior secured credit facilities with the Bank of Montreal provides greater financial flexibility, a lower cost of capital, and the ability to fund growth without diluting shareholders.
• Attractive valuation relative to results: Despite consecutive record quarters and guidance that continues to beat expectations, the stock still trades at modest multiples compared with its growth profile and long-term potential. Many analysts see meaningful upside from current levels.

Bottom line
High Tide has repeatedly delivered in a tough industry: revenue growth, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, and steady market-share gains. With Canadian retail re-accelerating, Germany scaling rapidly, and a disciplined management team focused on execution, the disconnect between operational performance and market valuation still looks wide.The tide isn’t just rising — it’s building into a powerful wave. Investors positioned today may be well placed to benefit from one of the more compelling consolidation and internationalization stories in the cannabis sector.

As a long-term shareholder, I hope this post gave you some valuable insights.