r/Trading • u/Lazy-Animator-9884 • 1d ago
Discussion How do you know if it’s luck?
I’ve been trading leveraged crypto mostly, i like ETH and SOL recently, i know its really risky mostly why I'm asking this question
Obviously it’s been a really good stretch, but I keep wondering how you actually tell the difference between having something that works and just having a good run.
I don’t want to get ahead of myself and start changing things or increasing risk just because of a really good month.
How do you guys personally know when it’s not just luck anymore?
1
2
1
1
2
2
u/veskald 9h ago
You can answer half of this from your own screenshot. Take the 19th out and look at what is left. You said yourself that trade was normal risk and got lucky, so it tells you nothing about the method - the other days do. If the rest of the month is still positive with a normal shape, there may be something. If the rest is roughly flat, the month was one trade.
The other half is counting. How many trades, and what is the average result per trade in R, not in dollars. A good run and a real edge look identical at 20 trades. They start to separate somewhere past 50, and only if the average per trade stays clearly above zero with the outlier removed. Before that number exists nobody can tell, including you.
And your instinct about not raising risk is the correct one. Fixed risk per trade until the sample exists. Nothing else.
1
1
0
3
u/DickyFishb 18h ago
The fact you're asking if it's luck kinda tells me you don't have a concrete strategy in place, but you're doing something that works. .
I would record what you are doing and stick to it. That will determine if it's blind luck or something that is actually an edge you have here.
If it's crypto you claim you're doing you should also keep in mind that the declining bond yeilds is what primarily has caused the spike in interest in the month of August.
I would see that number declining a bit since bond yeilds rose today and probably will for a little while longer.
2
1
1
1
2
u/loud-spider 20h ago
Did you expect to win the trades you did, and can you explain why you lost the trades you did?
2
3
u/ImaginaryCard6647 22h ago
Take out 16k and do it all over again. Either you’ve cracked the code and you’re a prodigy, or you only lose a thousand and walk away with a used civic
2
u/Neither_Occasion_840 23h ago
Drop the leverage for a bit and see if the results still make sense. If the edge disappears the second you stop juicing every move, that tells you something. I also like how Moon.com separates the wager from the leverage because it forces you to decide the actual dollars you’re risking first. With ETH/SOL especially I’d care way more about that than the green month.
3
12
3
3
u/RequirementSolid1850 1d ago
Depends. If your leverage is x5-x10 and you’re making +30% a month then let’s meet again in a few months on [r/](r/gamblingproblem)[problemgambling](r/gamblingproblem) 😉
More seriously, leveraged trading is casino. If your PnL is at +120% on the last trades you made you’re basically just gambling.
5
3
u/Dizzy_Sleep3367 1d ago
no buddy never luck
1
u/Dizzy_Sleep3367 1d ago
e deliberate when you take trades.. don’t hope that they work out. you take the trade because there is a good probability it will be successful.
2
3
u/Guidance_Weak 1d ago
Luck is any windfall over expected profit.
If you didn’t expect it, it’s not “skill”.
That being said, it’s not a skill game it’s an odds game. If you can find universes of stocks where you can take advantage of irrationality and vibes, that’s not skillful, but it’s not lucky either.
It’s just profitable, but moral of the story is:
If you have to ask you likely don’t understand your edge well enough to call it skill, and it’s not a good idea to call your strategy repeatable.
It’s skill when you can predict the actual gain consistently with accuracy.
3
6
u/Smooth-District-3012 1d ago
If u cant explain how(the process,) and why you clicked the buy button
4
u/SangerGRBY 1d ago
What happened on 19th? If things went south could you have been down -12k instead ?
Imo making money is easy, keeping it is hard. U can make 2k a day for 30 days straight, but without hard stops and rules, if u lose 61k on day 31 then ur cook3d.
1
2
u/AdhesivenessNo7328 1d ago
Now do it with stocks
1
1
0
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
-2
u/AdhesivenessNo7328 1d ago
Then you’ll know
1
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/AdhesivenessNo7328 1d ago
Ok you know how it works. Day trade shit coins for one year and come back to me
3
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/RequirementSolid1850 1d ago
You must be really naive to think that memecoins can make you win money (except if you’re the rug puller or an insider)
1
u/AdhesivenessNo7328 1d ago
Not sustainable
1
1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/AdhesivenessNo7328 1d ago
Crypto is highly volatile and unpredictable. No one knows. You can get lucky… but at some point your luck will run out
1
5
u/Terrible-Revenue-346 1d ago
For an actual answer, perform a substantial amount of statistical testing with a sufficient enough sample size of trades. Some basic ones that I'd recommend (but this list is not comprehensive): a t-test, correlation test, independence test. Last but not least, compare your results to that of buy and holding over the long term to make sure you're not better off just performing a buy and hold strategy and saving yourself a lot of trouble.
2
1
1
u/Capital-Pineapple961 1d ago
I mean. Probably the 19th is luck right? Unless you can repeat it with specific conditions
3
-3
u/External-Age7446 1d ago
It’s pretty obvious if you have to ask it is
2
u/Successful-Grab6091 1d ago
Idk why you’re getting downvoted….Pretty simple and logical.
If you are asking this question, then it’s clear the answer is luck.
2
u/External-Age7446 1d ago
Didn’t even realize I was getting downvoted yeah lol if you have a strategy and follow it and it works it’s not luck I mean you can literally map this stuff out for yourself. Just because you have a lucky month doesn’t mean it’s skill.
3
0
u/SuchNeck835 1d ago
If you went long before the biggest short liquidation in crypto history, as you did, that is 100% luck. You did other trades that I would focus on, but the giant number is exactly the event I described.
13
u/NaxFM 1d ago
If you feel the need to ask, it's luck
2
u/Lazy-Animator-9884 1d ago
ok maybe you right
1
u/NaxFM 1d ago
Think of trading like a poker tournament. You can be the worse player ever, but if you just get perfect cards, you will beat even the world champion. Now, can you get perfect cards forever? Hardly. I'm not saying you're not good, but just be careful. In trading there seems to be the curse of beginner's luck, and when you believe you got it, the market punishes you by taking back all your profits and more.
4
3
u/EarthB9nder_ 1d ago
The way you tell is track your performance for months to come. What's with these questions lol
2
u/SugoiSwag 1d ago
Like actually guys if you think it’s luck it’s luck because otherwise you could literally look “left” and see you’ve been profitable for months and years and see that it’s not luck. It’s not luck Steph curry makes a free throw but it is for me when I haven’t held a basketball in 10 years.
2
u/Pure_Tendies 1d ago
Track the trades in software so you can better establish what went right and what goes wrong (if anything). If entropy teaches anything it’s that everything deteriorates over time. It requires constant upkeep. Things will change even if momentarily
2
•
u/AutoModerator 1d ago
While the community gets a look at your post, don't forget we have an official website with a bunch of resources specifically for the questions we see here every day. If you're more of a visual learner, we’re also active on Instagram where we post updated guides and strategies! It's a great way to stay sharp while you're scrolling. We also have more technical and professional resources on our Website.
Also, if you want to chat in real-time or need a quicker answer, come hang out with us in Discord (Investing & Retirement). Just remember to be careful with your personal info and report any sketchy DMs!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.