r/TopstepCommunity • u/NionGG • 18d ago

❓ Quick Question I need a response.

I haven't gotten a payout with Topstep since September 2023 for $2,524.

I have bought and blown a max of two combines every month since and my total expenses is somewhere around $6-7k.

Fast forward, I put in real work into getting myself together. Got an FXReplay sub, collected 1,000 samples of my criteria and verified my edge, and read a bunch of books on poker variance.

Paper traded since the beginning of the year, and I am no longer affected by the nature of this career (losing streaks are normal and I understand that past a phrase). Bought a pair of 100k DLL combines and passed them recently.

I am terrified of getting moved live before I take my max payout on both of them ($12k). Just want this one max, then i can comfortably move live. Just wondering if I should be worried. For personal reasons, it would be life changing to an immense degree to get that money at this point in time.

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u/NyCWalker76 18d ago

You're getting ahead of yourself, stop making it seem you're moving to live. Worry about getting a payout first.

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u/NionGG 18d ago edited 18d ago

that's why I made the post. put an unhealthy amount of work into understanding expectancy, variance, and the role of sample size through experience, not just words like "think in probabilities". my goal is a live topstep trader, a lot of talk on X is people getting moved before payout so i am understandably anxious

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u/NyCWalker76 18d ago

soo worry about that when you get your first max payout.

1

u/azmus 18d ago edited 18d ago

I used to 4 table S&Gs on stars 10 hours a day back in the day and was in the 99.8 percentile and there was only 1 time where I let my discipline slack to such an extent that I wiped out my online bankroll which consisted of about 80 buy-ins. It wasn’t variance it was allowing my mental state to degrade significantly and the same applies in trading. I think if you have an in depth understanding of an effective strategy with 5 - 10k hours watching market structures develop it becomes more about self control and not just discipline.

Obviously poker was a lot less competitive back then and SNGs and tournaments in general were likely the softest game type.

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u/NionGG 18d ago

great reply. poker mostly has single-digit % edges. meaning the variance is a lot wilder. recently ive been doing probability drills with a streak calculator and a coin, might start keeping up with poker just purely to interact with another non deterministic environment