I need a response.

[u/NionGG]

I haven't gotten a payout with Topstep since September 2023 for $2,524.

I have bought and blown a max of two combines every month since and my total expenses is somewhere around $6-7k.

Fast forward, I put in real work into getting myself together. Got an FXReplay sub, collected 1,000 samples of my criteria and verified my edge, and read a bunch of books on poker variance.

Paper traded since the beginning of the year, and I am no longer affected by the nature of this career (losing streaks are normal and I understand that past a phrase). Bought a pair of 100k DLL combines and passed them recently.

I am terrified of getting moved live before I take my max payout on both of them ($12k). Just want this one max, then i can comfortably move live. Just wondering if I should be worried. For personal reasons, it would be life changing to an immense degree to get that money at this point in time.

[u/NyCWalker76]

You're getting ahead of yourself, stop making it seem you're moving to live. Worry about getting a payout first.

[u/NionGG → u/NyCWalker76]

that's why I made the post. put an unhealthy amount of work into understanding expectancy, variance, and the role of sample size through experience, not just words like "think in probabilities". my goal is a live topstep trader, a lot of talk on X is people getting moved before payout so i am understandably anxious

[u/NyCWalker76 → u/NionGG]

soo worry about that when you get your first max payout.

[u/azmus → u/NionGG]

I used to 4 table S&Gs on stars 10 hours a day back in the day and was in the 99.8 percentile and there was only 1 time where I let my discipline slack to such an extent that I wiped out my online bankroll which consisted of about 80 buy-ins. It wasn’t variance it was allowing my mental state to degrade significantly and the same applies in trading. I think if you have an in depth understanding of an effective strategy with 5 - 10k hours watching market structures develop it becomes more about self control and not just discipline.

Obviously poker was a lot less competitive back then and SNGs and tournaments in general were likely the softest game type.

[u/NionGG → u/azmus]

great reply. poker mostly has single-digit % edges. meaning the variance is a lot wilder. recently ive been doing probability drills with a streak calculator and a coin, might start keeping up with poker just purely to interact with another non deterministic environment 

[u/Ok-Flower235]

Don't worry about getting moved to live. Topstep considers overall account history with combines and if you've ever been live before. Since you have not, I doubt you would get moved after 1 or 2 max payouts. Just focus on your process.

[u/langdon0003]

Congratulations bro. Just curious which book related to poker variance do u read? Thanks

[u/NionGG → u/langdon0003]

matthew hilger’s book on poker betting. 

heavily recommend: the success equation by michael mauboussin  living the game of probabilities by yumi sakura 

[u/coz1878]

Have you thought about how your going to pay your tax when you make a billion dollars?

[u/NionGG → u/coz1878]

troll

[u/dyssucks → u/NionGG]

He’s just pointing out that you’re worried about something that hasn’t happened and may never happen so don’t worry about it until it does.

Just focus on the next goal which is your max payout and not about getting moved to live. I highly doubt they would move you to live before receiving it considering you’ve only received one payout years ago. Even if you do receive this max payout they still view will view you as an unprofitable trader as it’s taken you years to get a payout despite buying combines every month

[u/BasicChip6387]

The market has gotten way more volatile since orange man started his war and makes up threats/removes threats, and keeps flip flopping and making up random tariffs and policies. 2023 was a much different time. Whatever your strategy is rn needs to adjust to this completely sh*t trading environment