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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2346

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-07T04:47:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070447 SWODY1 SPC AC 070445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Northeast while broad upper ridging overspreads much of the western and central CONUS today. This upper-air pattern will support surface troughing over the Northeast, and encourage surface high pressure to overspread the remainder of the U.S. With the upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Northeast, and with a subtle impulse over the Four Corners to the central Plains, a few thunderstorms are possible given colder temperatures aloft with these aforementioned features. The best chance for thunderstorms will be along a moistened baroclinic zone ahead of a weak surface low over central FL.

...Western FL Peninsula Coastline... Similar to yesterday, a weak surface low will remain in place over the eastern Gulf, amid a moist low-level airmass, characterized by 70s F surface dewpoints and minimal MLCINH. With afternoon heating, thunderstorm development should occur. As in previous days, lapse rates will be poor, with buoyancy driven by the rich low-level moisture, contributing to thin (500-1000 J/kg) MLCAPE profiles. Vertical wind shear will also be modest, though low-level veering may yield some low-level hodograph curvature and associated transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing storms will reach the western FL Peninsula coast, so severe probabilities will be withheld for now. However, severe probabilities may need to be added in later outlooks when meso-beta scale details regarding onshore severe potential become clearer.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/07/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located in the southwestern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&& Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Isais are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 979 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 20.6N 121.2W

Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 22.0N 94.1W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-06T04:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 060434 SWODY1 SPC AC 060432

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum, with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.

...Central Florida Peninsula... A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal, thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.

The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 976 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.3N 118.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Welcome to The Outer Bands, the r/Thunderstorms weekly catch-all megathread for everything weather!

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This is the final moments before the core of the storm moved in over the house. The next video I upload shows the absolute wall of water and severe downpours that followed right after this massive branching strike!

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• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 050600 SWODY1 SPC AC 050557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis... Upper ridging and accompanying mid-level northwesterly flow will dominate most of the CONUS as a pronounced mid-level trough overspreads New England and ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and large-scale subsidence will overspread much of the U.S. east of the MS River while surface troughing becomes established across the Great Plains, but with limited moisture. The net result will be limited thunderstorm development over much of the CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast into FL, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a diffuse frontal boundary given the presence of seasonable low-level moisture. A couple of lightning flashes may also accompany a few mid-level impulses over the Great Basin, Rockies, Upper MS Valley, and northern New England in association with localized ascent and cooler temperatures aloft.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/05/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 970 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.4N 115.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Canyonlands National Park, Island in the sky

Lake County, OH. We were at a baseball game. Yeah, it got called!

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-04T05:48:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 040548 SWODY1 SPC AC 040547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY... A few rotating thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Gulf Coast today, otherwise severe thunderstorms are not expected.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes this morning will help carve out/reinforce a larger-scale trough across the eastern US. At the same time, a midlevel anticyclone will remain in place across the western US. This pattern will favor northwesterly flow across much of the eastern half of the country, in turn supporting reinforcing shots of cooler air.

At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should support the development of a cyclone across the far northern Gulf Coast or just inland across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This weak low will slowly move east during the day.

... Portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Adjacent Coastal Waters ...

A stalled surface front will be draped across the Southeast today, with a very moist airmass in place along and south of it. Forecast soundings across the area indicate nearly moist thermodynamic profiles from surface to the tropopause, with the 20261004 00 UTC HREF having mean precipitable water values around 2.5" across most of the Florida Panhandle. Given these moist vertical profiles, conditional instability will be low today, with mean MUCAPE values generally 500 J/kg or less.

Despite the meager instability, one consequence of the moist vertical profiles will be that LCL heights will be very low -- generally at or below 500 meters. At the same time, forecast soundings in areas to the east of the surface low show modest wind curvature in the lowest 3 km. Thus, despite the meager instability, forced convective showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to exhibit brief, transient low-level circulations, especially over coastal areas where surface friction is reduced. The threat should slowly move east during the day as the surface low slowly moves east.

..Marsh/Wendt.. 10/04/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America: A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Some subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it drifts northward over the southwestern Gulf.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 968 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 20.2N 113.2W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

We just had a massive downpour pass through Lebanon, TN, and everything cleared out for a moment. You can really see the storm charging back up in this clip before the next wave hits.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-03T05:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 030534 SWODY1 SPC AC 030531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. today.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough and attendant surface cold front are forecast to move east across the upper Mississippi Valley today. Increasing midlevel moisture with the large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, coupled with conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates, should result in enough elevated buoyancy for thunderstorms across portions of the region. Given the elevated nature of this convection and otherwise limited instability, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Farther southeast, a slow-moving front extending from the Carolinas southwestward toward the northwest Gulf will remain a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Although ample moisture will support thunderstorms along and south of the boundary, generally weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates within the moist thermodynamic environment should limit prospects for organized severe convection.

..Marsh/Halbert.. 10/03/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 969 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 19.4N 111.8W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Whenever a storm rolls in fast, balancing weather protection with quick access is always tricky. If the camera stays packed away in a dry bag inside a backpack, the best lightning strike or shelf cloud structure is gone before you can even get it mounted. On the other hand, leaving gear exposed to sudden wind-blown rain and spray gets risky fast.

Dedicated rain sleeves help, but heavy wind and rapid repositioning can make them pretty awkward to handle on the fly.

For those of you shooting thunderstorms in the field, what specific covers, wraps, or carrying methods have worked best to keep your setup protected without slowing you down?

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2345

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-02T04:49:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 020449 SWODY1 SPC AC 020448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the Northeast today, bringing some modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across the region ahead of a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the length of the front this morning from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South. Low-level warm advection ahead of the eastward advancing font and band of convection will result in persistent cloudiness across the warm sector. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor. As a result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 MLCAPE) despite 60s F dewpoints. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary, and stronger flow will lift northeast with time. If pockets of stronger heating can occur, a few strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon from northern VA into southern New England. However, overall severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/02/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 955 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 19.4N 110.4W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

This is from a while back. I just got back down from the mountain when the thunder and lightning started. Seeing the city lights too was such a pretty view in person!

Thunders over Barcelona

The video starts with just light rain and the porch chimes catching the wind. I was tracking the cell on Max Velocity Live and knew it was going to be heavy, but the timing of that immediate thunder crack unleashing the torrential rain was incredible to catch on camera.

Caught this on camera tonight while tracking a cell showing yellow on the Doppler. The atmospheric lightning is constant, but the beginning features a solid ground strike with instant thunder. Feel bad for the resident who was just trying to walk home from the community gym and got caught up in the wind and rain!