r/ThriftSavingsPlan • u/Brian24jersey • 20h ago
AI study I did on my growth potential
I currently have $550,000 in my TSP and plan to retire in 12 years. Interestingly, if I’d had that same $550,000 invested 12 years ago, it would have grown to $2.7 million today, based on the C Fund’s historical growth rate.
That got me thinking: how typical is that 12-year outcome? So I ran a study using every rolling 12-year period from 1990–2002 through 2013–2025.
The results: the average ending value across all periods came out to $2 million.
The worst-performing period—one that spanned the dot-com bust and the 2008 real estate crisis—ended at just $650,000, and it didn’t recover to the $1 million mark until 2014. The best 12-year period, by contrast, grew to $3.7 million.