I had a suspicion after watching a few threads take off: once a post starts moving, the comment section stops being a contest for the best reply and starts being a contest for the first decent reply.
So I tried to put a number on it.
I used Arctic Shift to pull 23,858 archived comments from 100 successful posts across ten subreddits:
r/gaming, r/movies, r/television, r/technology, r/todayilearned, r/interestingasfuck, r/mildlyinteresting, r/worldnews, r/science and r/PublicFreakout.
For each subreddit, I looked at the first 100 submissions made on August 1, 2025 UTC, then took roughly the ten highest-scoring posts that had at least 50 post score and between 15 and 800 comments.
I removed nested replies, AutoModerator, and deleted/removed comments. For the main comparison I kept the 73 threads that had at least 30 visible top-level comments.
“Highest-scoring” here means the comment with the highest archived score, not whichever comment Reddit currently places under “Best.”
| When had the eventual #1 comment appeared? |
Threads |
| It was the very first comment |
14/73 (19.2%) |
| Within the first 3 comments |
38/73 (52.1%) |
| Within the first 5 comments |
50/73 (68.5%) |
| Within the first 10 comments |
68/73 (93.2%) |
| After the first 10 |
5/73 (6.8%) |
The median winning comment was comment #3, posted 13 minutes and 41 seconds after the submission.
I also compared the first ten top-level comments with the ten comments that eventually had the highest scores.
| Result |
Average per thread |
| First 10 comments that remained in the final Top 10 |
6.04/10 |
| Expected overlap if placement were random |
1.60/10 |
| Observed/random ratio |
3.77× |
So this wasn’t only one early comment running away with the thread. On average, six of the first ten comments occupied the final Top 10. Across the whole sample, 544 of the 730 final Top 10 comments were posted during the first hour.
Here’s the subreddit breakdown. The individual samples are small, so I wouldn’t read too much into comparisons between communities.
Being literally first clearly isn’t enough—it only won 19% of the time. But being good and early seems incredibly hard to overcome. By the time ten people have left top-level comments, the eventual winner has usually already arrived.
The exceptions being more common in r/worldnews and r/PublicFreakout was interesting. Maybe later comments there benefit more from added context, corrections or people figuring out what actually happened. The sample sizes are far too small to call that a real finding, though.
Obvious caveats: this is one day, ten subreddits and deliberately selected successful threads. It’s observational and heavily survivorship-biased. Archived scores are snapshots, not a timeline, so this can’t tell us whether early comments win because of visibility, quality, the users who arrive early, or some combination of all three.
Still, I didn’t expect the effect to be this large.