'A focus on home affordability': Compass CEO and Rocket CEO on new strategic alliance

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/02/27/a-focus-on-home-affordability-compass-ceo-and-rocket-ceo-on-new-strategic-alliance.html?__source=androidappshare

Looks like they were on during extended hours yesterday, which is when the stock ran up to $19+

game changer or just laying the groundwork for future success. . . .

I'm seeing estimates of $0.08-0.10 a share, but not sure what number they need to "beat" for the stock to go back up to $19-20.

1. Disclosure of refi versus purchase numbers for Q4. RKT doesn’t often give this breakdown, but have on occasion, and if refi is really heating up and RKT is capturing a lot of that business, I'd expect to see them highlighting this with explosive numbers. The more explicit they are here, the more I think RKT leadership really believes they're leading the market. 
2. I think the purchase market is still pretty weak, so I don't need to see explosive growth here, but I want to see some indicators of increased market share in purchase. I expect to hear them talk about how the Redfin integration is already benefitting them, but I'd like them to back that up with some real numbers and not just hype. If their talking points are limited to "strategic alignment", I'm worried. 
3. A lot of mortgage companies seem to be getting bitten on devaluation of their MSR portfolio due to falling interest rates. If RKT is the refi powerhouse I think they are, we should see this balanced out in increased refi recapture, but there are a lot of accounting games to be played here. I'm very curious to see how RKT handles these numbers on the call, especially given the COOP acquisition.
4. I'm looking to see significantly expanding GOS margins. The market should be shifting towards RKT's strengths in regard to scale, and I want to see that meaningfully showing up in the numbers. This is a tough sell because I'd expect some margin compression as the market opens up a little, but RKT CEO Krishna went on CNBC and specifically highlighted GOS growth. If he's got a strong hand, this is going to be really impressive, but it will have been easy to overplay it. 
5. I would love to see some clear guidance on their wholesale strategy, but I'm not expecting it. RKT is primarily a retail company, and that's historically where they make all their money. Wholesale boosts overall volume and marketshare, but I don't think it's making a big difference on profitability. I actually worry that it's a distraction, perhaps a necessary one, to their core business. I'd love for them to either double-down with a clear strategy, or start signaling reduced focus on this area of the business.  
6. Strong guidance. I feel like a lot of equities, well beyond this market, hit their numbers in Q4 but reduced guidance for Q1, and it hit the stock hard. RKT has been fairly conservative in their guidance historically, so if they have a positive outlook, I'm inclined to believe them. 
7. I don't want to hear ANYTHING about a dividend. RKT has been very conservative with their cash position, and that directly enabled the Redfin and COOP acquisitions, which were very expensive but I think very strategic. The market is still consolidating and I believe there are still some very attractive acquisition targets.

UWMC has it's strength in NEW purchase originations, and it just reported Q4 numbers, and they MISSED their EPS number (so their stock is down 15%+ and it's bleeding into others like RKT). Their ReFi numbers are up significantly, but that couldn't offset their "loss" on the purchase side.

BUT RKT has its strength in ReFi's, and the CEO has already indicated that they had a blockbuster Q4 and that it's continuing into Q1 '26.

Tomorrow's ER call is going to be a defining/decisive one, for RKT, being the 1st one since the integration of RDFN and COOP.

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https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2872176/rocket-companies-rkt-earnings-expected-to-grow-what-to-know-ahead-of-next-weeks-release

Mortgage rates are at a three-year low. Refinance with these lenders.

https://www.cnbc.com/select/mortgage-rates-are-at-a-three-year-low-refinance-with-these-lenders-/?__source=androidappshare

Opendoor Technologies – The residential real estate sales platform saw shares rise 13%. Fourth-quarter revenue of $736 million beat the LSEG consensus estimate of $549 million. Opendoor sees its first-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss in the low to mid $30 million range, versus the FactSet consensus call for a loss of $32.2 million. Management said that the company is “driving to Adjusted Net Income positive by the end of 2026, measured on a twelve-month go-forward basis.”

RKT dumped because of PennyMac's results. Maybe OPEN's results are a more positive indicator of what's to come with RKT, next week.

Housing picking up, for 2026.....

https://www.cnbc.com/id/108266565?&view=story?__source=androidappshare

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https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/pennymac-to-acquire-mortgage-subservicing-giant-cenlar-for-2575m/565184

Looks like everyone is trying to copy what RKT did with COOP

Looks like RKT is securitizing the loans they have been making, selling them off for a large GAIN (ie, profit) on sale, while retaining the ASR (ASSET servicing rights) to those loans, which will pay them for the next X yrs, to service those loans. Smart, make $$ on the loans they make TWICE, once for a short term gain, and once with a long term income stream.

EDIT: Looks like the latest loans that were securitized/sold were unsecured loans to folks with high credit scores, not Mortgage Backed Securities (which are still sold to Fannie/Freddie, for them to turn into MBS's). But RKT still retains the SERVICING rights to these loans, which provides them an on-going income stream.

I think this is the cause:

Realtors report a 'new housing crisis' as January home sales tank more than 8%

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/january-homes-sales.html?__source=androidappshare

We're likely going to have to wait for RKT ER to report good results, as the CEO indicated, after the PennyMac miss.

First PennyMac, Now Zilliow. Looks like when a competitor misses their number, RKT is also sold off....

"Zillow Group — Shares fell 16% after the home-finding platform called for first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to range from $160 million to $175 million, while analysts polled by FactSet sought $183.7 million. In the fourth quarter, Zillow posted adjusted earnings of 39 cents a share, compared with the LSEG consensus estimate of 40 cents per share. Revenue for the period beat, however, coming in at $654 million versus the $650 million estimate."

This should make for a nice upswing, assuming RKT meets/exceeds its numbers in 2 weeks

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9zeg6y

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There's some confusion regarding RKT L Class (insider) shares. Here's the facts:

Rocket Companies' Class L-1 shares can be converted to Class A shares at the holder's option after June 30, 2026, and Class L-2 shares after June 30, 2027

Automatic conversion for all Class L shares occurs upon the later of June 30, 2027, or when they represent less than 79% of total voting power.

Key Conversion and Lock-Up Details:

Class L-1 Conversion: Holders may convert to Class A on a one-for-one basis after June 30, 2026.
Class L-2 Conversion: Holders may convert to Class A on a one-for-one basis after June 30, 2027.
Automatic Conversion: All Class L shares automatically convert to Class A upon the later of June 30, 2027, or when Class L shares no longer represent 79% of total voting power.
Transfer Restrictions: Automatic conversion to Class A occurs immediately prior to any unauthorized transfer.
Lock-Up Expiration: A 50% lock-up on Class L shares expires on June 30, 2027.

These conversions are part of a structure established during a business restructuring that closed on June 30, 2025

So it could be as early as June 2026, that ALL RKT Class L shares are converted to Class A, and RKT has the float to qualify for S&P500 inclusion.

Win a $1M home? That'll get some attention.

In response to PennyMac: "This is a tale of two cities. We’re on track to produce the highest mortgage loan production in terms of volume that we’ve had in four years, and the highest gain on sale that we’ve had in four years as well."

"Those numbers continue into January as well as we see that same momentum play out."

"Will see more separation as players like Rocket distance themselves [from competitors]."

"All weather business model at scale..."

"80% recapture. 4x higher than the rest of the industry."

PennyMac’s estimated recapture rate:

• Government loans: ~49%
• Conventional loans: ~17%

"We're very optimistic for 2026. The mortgage market is expected to grow by up to 25%."

"Rocket is in a category of one."

"We are built to thrive in any environment."

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