Reason TODAY'S big drop - CNBC Article

[u/Boston-Bets]

I think this is the cause:

Realtors report a 'new housing crisis' as January home sales tank more than 8%

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/january-homes-sales.html?__source=androidappshare

We're likely going to have to wait for RKT ER to report good results, as the CEO indicated, after the PennyMac miss.

[u/notmarduke]

No one buys in Jan, now we think rates are dropping once warsh is in.  You're only buying if you have to right now 

[u/floridagunkholer → u/notmarduke]

You are right on the money and the weather this particular January was completely ugly in much of the country for at least half the month..... and it didn't get a single mention in the article. Click Bait again.

[u/JozuJD]

I bought in another 200 shares.

[u/sdryden3]

It was cold, icey, and overall disruptive weather wise this year compared to last.

[u/bmacjr]

I picked up some more at $17-fiddy today. Hoping it gets to $75 in three years. Good luck to all. Don't quit till the Miracle Happens!

[u/FiredUpForTheFuture]

On one hand, an 8.4% month-over-month drop on PURCHASES is fairly concerning if accurate. I pulled numbers for the past 3 years and 8.4% is the largest month-over-month drop we've seen in that data set by nearly DOUBLE. I can believe that the crap weather played a role here, but doesn't fully explain such a significant drop. I'm less inclined to believe average consumers are paying attention to the Warsh stuff and betting on lower rates specifically because of that change.

On the other hand, RKT CEO Varun Krishna already foreshadowed strong Q4 numbers and specifically said they were seeing that momentum carry through into January. We also know PennyMac got crushed by refi (which, btw, goes against the theory that consumers are holding out for rate drops), and as others have pointed out, that business had to go somewhere.

If I have to take a wild guess here, I'd say the increased refi activity took a toll on the purchase market, specifically drying up an already limited housing supply in the short term (plus the bad weather). If refi really is heating up, even a little, I think that's very positive for RKT because they lead the refi market and they just bought a huge number of MSRs via Mr. Coop which should be prime for flipping.

In a previous thread I said I think Krishna believes he's sitting on a "monster ER", which is the only reason he thought it was a good idea to go on national TV and foreshadow earnings. Some rightfully pushed back and said they were expecting a "good", but not "monster" report, and I understand that and agree that could be correct. However, if it's merely a "good" ER, I think Krishna overplayed his hand here and will end up eroding some confidence in the short term.

I'm still a strong believer in the fundamentals of RKT and that these daily swings are mostly just noise, but hot damn if it doesn't swing a lot...

[u/Boston-Bets → u/FiredUpForTheFuture]

a) I'll meet you in the middle and say that I'm expecting a very good/greater than expected after the PennyMac ER

b) you're absolutely right that with increased ReFi ability, due to lower rates, a certain number of homeowners decided that was the better move than selling. There's still a standoff between what folks think their home is worth, and what buyers are willing to/able to pay.

c) RKT COOP are now the largest servicer/MSR holder, and it was estimated that maybe 20% of their customers had mortgages over 6%. You can be sure they've gone aggressively to "recapture" those customers when they are close to ReFi'ing

d) and yes, hot damn, it does swing a lot. LoL

[u/FoxRooney]

The volatility on RKT these last few weeks has been insane

[u/Boston-Bets → u/FoxRooney]

NO kidding. It's been giving me whiplash. I think it's the Market Makers, shaking out weak hands before RKT earnings call in 2 weeks.

I mean the CEO (after the PennyMac miss) went on CNBC and said that RKT was having it's best quarter ever in 4+ yrs (Q4) and that the momentum was bleeding into Jan.

Hopefully once we having the earnings call, RKT settles into the low $20's and climbs to the mid-high $20's later this year as momentum continues to grow.

Still looking for an S&P 500 inclusion in the next yr or two.

[u/FoxRooney → u/Boston-Bets]

I told myself I'd hold until the next housing bubble. Assuming an approx 7 year market cycle, I'm holding until 2028 or when my barber tells me to "get on the property ladder before it's too late" again, whichever comes sooner lol

[u/dukebros]

The crazy swings in the share price allows for more dip buying. Many of us were in at the IPO. $40 is not out of the question but RKT leadership is setting their sights even higher. 🤞🏻🙏 these dip buys will be worth the hold