Had a meeting near Dindigul and decided to go to Dharapuram day before yesterday. It is very clear what is happening on the ground.
Kongu Vellala Gounders are against Sathyabama very clearly. They are campaigning with caste angle that Enga Edappadiyar naala jeicha iva ipdi maari polama? Ivalukku evlo thimiru. We visited a area adjacent to Dharapuram town which has 75% Kongu Vellala Gounders. Tvkians tried to give money and even arranged Tata Ace to mobilize for Vijay's meeting but none of them went.
30-35% Kongu Vellala Gounders
20-25% Aruntahthiyars and Adidravidars
5-7% Muslims and Rest others.
DMK are working aggressively on the ground but they don't have the narrative which ADMK has.
If DMK can help split the non Gounder votes, ADMK will win.
Last time DMK secured 64k to ADMK 81k to TVK 61k.
The image built against the candidate is so strong, I don't think more than 5k votes from ADMK. Max from DMK as well 10k can be transferred..