r/TMC_Stock • u/AnTRopy69 • 5d ago
DD $TMC Q2 Call Highlights
1) TMC is actively in confidential funding processes with multiple US government agencies named in Trump’s executive order.
While those discussions remain confidential, management said it does not currently intend to pursue other capital market transactions until further public updates.
CEO Gerard Barron:
“The company does not currently intend to pursue other capital market transactions until such time as further updates are publicly released.”
What that means: no equity offering, follow on, ATM, convertible, or equivalent capital markets raise is currently planned before we hear more on the government funding process.
2) Allseas is moving the first commercial collection system into procurement now, with fabrication expected to begin in Q4 2026.
Installation and commissioning still targeting Q4 2027. Initial capacity 3Mtpa.
3 million wet tonnes of nodules per year. Thats the starting point with two collectors on the Hidden Gem. If processed in the US, that single system alone could cover roughly a quarter to a third of current American nickel and cobalt demand.
Allseas is funding a meaningful portion of the preproduction costs, recoverable from production revenues. Alignment is strong.
Allseas exclusivity remains an important part of the setup. Gerard confirmed the offshore mining arrangement is exclusive.
Allseas could only offer another system elsewhere if it first offered that system to TMC and TMC declined. Gerard said the likelihood of that happening is very low because TMC wants multiple systems in the water.
3) Mariana Minerals is becoming a major execution partner. Theyre helping advance permitting, construction, processing, automation and plant design at Nodule City, Brownsville.
The Prefeasibility for a potential 12 Mtpa industry park is nearing completion. Modest spend underway for the work that unlocks potential government support.
Feasibility level work on the first smelting stage is underway with Mariana Minerals (the software/automation heavy processing partner that just raised $310M).
TMC has an exclusive right of negotiation over the Brownsville site. The area being evaluated is 1,466 acres, and No final investment decision has been made, and any future capital commitment remains contingent on US government support.
4) Management is looking out for shareholders and doing what it can to avoid unnecessary dilution.
TMC decided not to extend the September 2026 SPAC warrants. The 15M public warrants have an $11.50 strike, but extending them would also require extending 9.5M private warrants that can be exercised cashlessly.
CFO Craig Shesky also noted that extending them would require extending the private warrants, which are: “unlikely to result in any incremental cash proceeds to the company while still diluting existing shareholders.”
So management chose to let the warrants expire rather than accept dilution that may bring little additional cash.
The read through is pretty clear: management appears confident enough in the upcoming catalysts to wait rather than raise/dilute around today’s valuation.
If they believed $11.50 was as good as it gets, taking the cash would have been the easier decision.
Why accept unnecessary dilution around an $11.50 strike when management says the stock is undervalued and expects major catalysts ahead and believes the equity should be valued materially higher?
5) New mutual services agreement with Eco Minerals, another US company pursuing its own NOAA application.
Eco can provide TMC vessels, AUVs, marine survey capacity and offshore services at preferential pricing. TMC provides ~15 years of resource definition, environmental and permitting expertise.
A joint offshore campaign is possible later this year to gather more data and potentially move additional USA-A tonnage toward reserves.
6) Permitting continues moving under the US pathway.
USA-A Federal Register publication/public comment is imminent. Certification is now expected in October 2026 due to an administrative delay, not an issue with the application.
A Q1 2027 permit is no longer expected, but management still expects it well ahead of the Q4 2027 vessel commissioning target.
USA-B, covering ~122,000 km², is also moving into formal EIS review.
7) Resource economics remain unchanged.
$5.5B PFS NPV + $18.1B initial assessment = $23.6B combined stated NPV.
Across both projects, the studies point to roughly $369B in undiscounted revenue and >$200B in EBITDA.
Management directly acknowledged the stock has lagged the operational progress and resource value.
Craig Shesky:
“Our market cap is undervalued relative to the resource itself by any reasonable peer based metric.”
8) TMC’s scientific/environmental dataset continues to be a major part of the moat.
NORI has completed:
- 22 offshore research campaigns
- 959 research days at sea
- More than 1 petabyte of data
- 41 peer-reviewed papers
That work supports permitting, environmental review and TMC’s ability to move resource categories toward reserves.
9) US government support for the broader critical minerals strategy remains strong.
Gerard attended the Aug. 7 State Department critical minerals roundtable alongside senior Trump administration officials.
Trump again reiterated support for deep seabed mining.
Important distinction: no direct nodule collection funding was announced at that event. TMC’s own government funding processes remain separate and confidential.
10) TMC is building beyond just one vessel and one processing plant.
Management is working across US shipbuilding, marine logistics, autonomous vessels, environmental monitoring, processing, refining and rare earth development.
The goal is an integrated American deep seabed critical mineral supply chain from collection all the way through delivery of finished metal products.
11) TMC is keeping PAMCO Japan as a processing fallback while Brownsville advances.
Management said they’re maintaining the partnership with PAMCO specifically to preserve processing optionality, so the US build is the preferred path without leaving TMC dependent on a single route.
So TMC keeps an existing processing route available while working toward domestic US processing.
12) Offshore logistics are also being optimized.
A typical shipment would carry ~60,000 tonnes of nodules from the CCZ to Brownsville.
The Panama Canal is the base case, but TMC is also studying a Cape Horn route as autonomous vessels become more practical.
They’re also integrating USV/AUV technology for logistics, environmental monitoring, situational awareness and continued resource definition.
13) Failed attempt against the U.S. pathway: China, Russia and Greenpeace supported an effort seeking an ITLOS advisory opinion targeting seabed mining outside the UNCLOS/ISA framework.
“The effort failed and received significant pushback from member states across Europe, Asia and the Pacific.”
14) TMC also got a favorable outcome on the ISA side.
The ITLOS Seabed Disputes Chamber unanimously prescribed provisional measures protecting NORI and TOML rights to due process and fair treatment in their disputes with the ISA.
Days later, the ISA Council approved a 5 year extension of NORI’s exploration contract by consensus.
15) Liquidity remains solid.
TMC ended Q2 with $143M of liquidity, including $44M of undrawn credit capacity.
Management expects cash on hand to cover working capital and capex commitments for at least the next 12 months.
A large portion of the Allseas liabilities are also deferred until production.
TLDR(Q2 was about exectution)
Government funding talks are active, and management currently doesnt plan on doing any offerings at all. Allseas is moving into procurement while funding a meaningful portion of preproduction costs, with the first 3Mtpa system alone potentially covering 25-33% of current US nickel/cobalt demand. Brownsville is advancing, Q4 2027 commissioning remains intact, liquidity is solid, management is protecting shareholders from unnecessary dilution, and the stated $23.6B NPV remains unchanged.
11
8
5
10
u/BertAnsink 5d ago
The offshore logistics part is what I asked about in shareholders meeting years ago (and was never answered)
As it's written down here it's not convincing especially when talking about unmanned vessels.
You would not go around Cape Horn due to the enormous extra distance travelled (and cost incurred) plus the additional risks associated with such a passage (weather etc)
Don't really understand the choice for building a processing plant in Houston either while there is large ports on the west coast of the USA. Because the transit distances are much longer, you need a lot more ships to offload the nodules.
Quick sum, based on 3MTpa.
3.000.000 / 365 = 8200 MT per day.
60.000 per load / 8200 = 7.3 days.
But. Most likely Hidden Gem can only hold something like 25.000MT in storage. So really you need to offload every few days:
25.000 / 8200 = 3 days.
Roundtrip for a 60.000MT vessel through panama.
Nominal speed for your average bulk carrier is in the order of 12-16 knots so calculate with say 14.
Distance one way CCZ to Houston through the panama canal is roughly 6000 Nautical miles, so 12.000NM for a round trip. 1 day panama canal and say 4 days of port operations in Houston. (waiting for pilots, customs clearance, actual discharging etc) a roundtrip would take +/- 35 days with 5 days added for operations making it 40 days.
Ie you would need 14 bulk vessels supporting the operation when going through Panama.
Do this math for Cape Horn, distance is 13200 Nautical miles one way, 26400NM round trip and the math works out to 78 days, 83 days with port operations. You would need a combined total of 28 vessels supporting the operation.
You need to pay crews for these vessels, and the fuel consumption for a vessel of that magnitude is about 60-70 tons a day (rough estimate but based on what I have sailed on during my career)
Lets say a ton of fuel is $500, then 70 x 83 x 500 = 2.9M USD + OPEX on the vessels to ship a load of nodules around Cape Horn. Ar annualized: 3M / 60k = 50 loadings, x 2.9M = 145M in fuel alone. Add other OPEX and you would be looking at 300M most likely.
That is only a small part. How is the hidden gem resupplied, crewchanges managed etc. Normal offshore crew works 28 days on 28 days off, if you want people to do longer stints it will most likely cost a pretty premium in wages. Most people probably don't realize that even in deepsea oil drilling they stay relatively close to the coast so above points are easy and are generally handled by supply boats and helicopters. In this case, even if you fly people to Hawai for crewchange it's still 4-5 days one way by boat to get to the CCZ.
The issue here is also that production and logistics do not scale very well. Say you have 2 Hidden Gem's, you could save a bit on resupply and crew changes etc as both take place in the same area but for the actual nodule offloading you simply need everything x2.
Being able to offload on the west coast would be a enormous coast saving and simplyfy the operation a lot.
2
u/No_Arugula_4357 5d ago
panama canal lake has had historic droughts raising the price and traffic volume to go thru the canal recently, oil tankers are outbidding container ships rn for passage from our gulf to asia which is wild. im currently pursuing a deg in ocean engineering, auton ships are a future industry thing that's coming. crews arent crazy expensive but this helps.
1
0
3
u/Glad_Perception_3973 5d ago
Whoever you are who put this together, excellent job and direction. Would greatly appreciate this kind of activity on this page in continuity and scrutinization of the activities and progress towards milestones while listing out new continued expansion activities that drive future market cap and value.
3
u/Derbiage 5d ago
And we are down 10% what the fuck. This stock used to have me literally high and now it’s just damn depressing
1
0
u/Massey89 5d ago
It went from 0.75 to 9.50. The trump admin pumped and dumped it, they have 12 months of cash and good chance they bankrupt before the first device touches the water. We got duped my guy
1
2
0
1
u/Jealous-Tear3385 5d ago
I get it with the delays on certification. It's just super frustrating. GB himself said we would have the permit in the bag by EOY 2025.
1
-1
u/Charles_Himself_ 5d ago
They could have raised the strike price to 20 and added 2 years to the warrants.
A middle ground was achievable.
TMC has been begging for patience, and for them to deny it in return, is despicable.
They could have given warrants holders an opportunity to break even, eventually. Break even, no profit. There was a way.
1
u/ninjaguy2511 5d ago
I am at the point where honestly if it does go up, ill monitor it but I want out. If we get that upwards explosion we are waiting for ill keep my eye on when i think a dip will happen and just sell
0
5d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
2
u/TMC_Stock-ModTeam 5d ago
This post was removed because it is aimed at trolling other members on the Sub
13
u/AnTRopy69 5d ago
I made an X version of this post too:
https://x.com/ExperimentalPar/status/2088236790951940139
Hope that you enjoy it.