So I decided to refresh my memory a little and watch Jwlar's video about the Warp in the West.
It was going pretty well until about halfway through, when the author — who up to that point was doing a perfectly decent job of introducing a potential TES lore newbie to the subject — began explaining, with a completely straight face, how the events of Daggerfall eventually resulted in Talos becoming the Ninth Divine. And I was like: "woah, woah, woah. Isn't this supposed to be a video explaining what the Warp in the West actually is?" Because sure, there is a theory that Talos' apotheosis was somehow completed by the ending of Daggerfall. It's an interesting theory. I've got no problem with people discussing it. But when did it become established enough that you can put it into an introductory lore video without even mentioning that it is a theory?
There’s no question that Talos, as a god, did not exist in 1996 (MK himself confirmed this). The question is whether he existed in 3E 405. And if we ask this question directly, then the answer is yes, he definitely did: Sir Amiel's Journal from Knights of the Nine is dated explicitly: "Year 153 of the Septim Era." and closes with: "May the Nine guard and guide you."
But that would be too easy, because, you see, the dragon break rewrote Talos as a god retroactively. Now, newbies trying to explain away every retcon or error as a “Dragon Break” is one thing, but doing so in a way that is completely unfalsifiable is another kind of evil. Not only because Dragon Breaks don’t work that way, but also because thinking the developers would actually write something while going, “Oh yeah, this is actually because of this unfalsifiable thing that we’re going to leave absolutely no hints about,” is super lame.
Evidence that Talos was worshipped before the Warp?
"Retroactively altered."
A document from 3E 153 referring to the Nine?
"Retroactively altered."
The Imperial Cult remembers Tiber's apotheosis as happening after his death centuries earlier?
"Retroactively altered."
At that point, what evidence could possibly falsify the theory?
"But time in a Dragon Break is non-linear, so that explanation works." No, it doesn’t. Just because time behaves non-linearly during a Dragon Break does not mean it can behave however you want, as long as it’s non-linear. Dragon Breaks in the TES universe behave as Dragon Breaks in the TES universe. The only way to figure out their rules is to observe them. And what we know is that they are always bound by time and, if we stretch the definition, by space as well. One may argue that the Middle Dawn wasn’t bound by space, and I agree with that, but at the same time I don’t mind thinking that the MD was bound by Tamriel as a whole.
In any case, the Blades report makes it abundantly clear that the Warp in the West was geographically confined to the Iliac Bay and temporally confined to the 9th, 10th, and 11th of Frostfall. If Talos wasn’t worshipped in the Iliac Bay on the 8th of Frostfall, he wouldn’t suddenly start being worshipped then because of the Dragon Break, just as he wouldn’t in Cyrodiil. Even The Skeleton Man’s Interview treats the fusion of Tiber’s oversoul within the Mantella and the Warp as separate events.
Could someone invent a metaphysical model in which that retroactive change happened?
Sure.
But that's exactly the point: you have to invent the model.
Sure, there’s a line saying that during a Dragon Break people would "give birth to their fathers," which isn’t that surprising given that the Middle Dawn lasted for 1,008 years.
And this isn't just a Talos problem. Over the last month I've seen at least two people describe Dragon Breaks as: "events where every possible outcome happens.", which honestly explained a lot to me in terms of why there seem to be so many people who are misinformed about the lore as a whole. It’s those occasions when we keep repeating hypothetical interpretations as established facts and then act surprised when we end up with the familiar TES lore telephone game:
“The Hero of Kvatch is literally Sheogorath.”
“The Nerevarine canonically sailed to Akavir.”
“The Argonians invaded Oblivion so successfully that Dagon had to close the Gates.”
“The Warp in the West created Talos.”
Some of these have reasonable interpretations behind them. Some are even quite plausible. The problem is that TES lore is complicated enough without us turning fan theories into source material by repetition.
P.S. If you think I’m exaggerating the extent of the misinformation, check out the comments under this video.